13 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
logaritmisk db633bdafe bench,docs: capture T3 final numbers and update CHANGELOG
Batch::iteration sequential: 23.23 µs (no regression vs T2 baseline).
Gaussian ops unchanged.

End-to-end history_converge benchmark on Apple M5 Pro:
  Workload                                        seq       rayon    speedup
  500 events / 100 competitors / 10 per slice     4.03 ms   4.24 ms  1.0x
  2000 events / 200 competitors / 20 per slice   20.18 ms  19.82 ms  1.0x
  5000 events / 50000 competitors / 1 slice      11.88 ms   9.10 ms  1.3x

The spec's >=2x target is not achieved on realistic workloads. T3's
within-slice color-group parallelism only shows material benefit when
a slice holds many events AND the competitor pool is large enough to
give the greedy coloring room to partition. Typical TrueSkill
workloads don't fit that profile. Cross-slice parallelism (dirty-bit
slice skipping, spec Section 5) is the natural next step for
real-workload speedup.

Determinism verified: bit-identical posteriors across
RAYON_NUM_THREADS={1, 2, 4, 8}.

Closes T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 14:58:24 +02:00
logaritmisk f0d6211387 perf(game): revert Task 10 SmallVec changes — caused sequential regression
The Vec<Vec<_>> → SmallVec<[SmallVec<[_;8]>;8]> change in Task 10
regressed Batch::iteration from 23.29 µs to 29.73 µs (+28%). The
SmallVec was motivated by reducing parallel-path allocations but
it hurt the sequential path substantially.

Reverting game.rs + time_slice.rs + history.rs storage back to the T2
Vec<Vec<_>> shape. The parallel rayon path (unsafe direct-write +
thread_local ScratchArena + RAYON_THRESHOLD=64 fallback) stays — it
is independent of Game's internal storage.

Benchmarks after revert:
  Batch::iteration (seq, no rayon): 23.23 µs (restored ≈T2)
  Batch::iteration (rayon):         24.57 µs
  history_converge/500x100@10:       4.03 ms seq,  4.24 ms rayon — 1.0×
  history_converge/2000x200@20:     20.18 ms seq, 19.82 ms rayon — 1.0×
  history_converge/1v1-5000x50000@5000: 11.88 ms seq, 9.10 ms rayon — 1.3×

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 14:55:37 +02:00
logaritmisk be515c3d8d bench(history): end-to-end History::converge benchmark + rayon perf fix
Adds benches/history_converge.rs with three workloads:
  - 500 events / 100 competitors / 10 events per slice
  - 2000 events / 200 competitors / 20 events per slice
  - 5000 events / 50000 competitors / 5000 events per slice (gate workload)

Investigation found the original rayon path used a compute/apply split with
EventOutput heap allocation per event, causing 3-23x regression. Root cause:
per-event allocations caused heavy allocator contention across rayon threads.

Fixes:
  - Replace EventOutput/two-phase approach with direct unsafe parallel write.
    Events in a color group have disjoint agent index sets; concurrent writes
    to SkillStore land on different Vec slots — no data race.
  - Add RAYON_THRESHOLD=64: color groups below this size fall back to
    sequential to avoid rayon overhead on small slices.
  - Game internals: switch likelihoods/teams to SmallVec<[_;8]> to avoid
    heap allocation for ≤8-team / ≤8-player-per-team games. Add type aliases
    Teams<T,D> and Likelihoods to satisfy clippy::type_complexity.
  - within_priors() and outputs() now return SmallVec; callers updated to
    use ranked_with_arena_sv() directly (avoiding Vec→SmallVec conversion).

Sequential baseline (Apple M5 Pro, 2026-04-24):
  500x100@10perslice:            4.72 ms
  2000x200@20perslice:          23.17 ms
  1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice:  13.89 ms

With --features rayon (RAYON_NUM_THREADS=5, P-cores on M5 Pro):
  500x100@10perslice:            4.82 ms  (1.0× — below threshold)
  2000x200@20perslice:          23.09 ms  (1.0× — below threshold)
  1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice:   6.97 ms  (2.0× speedup — GATE ACHIEVED)

T3 acceptance gate: >=2× speedup on at least one workload — ACHIEVED.
74 tests pass under both feature configs.

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 14:47:29 +02:00
logaritmisk cbf652eb1d test: assert bit-identical posteriors across RAYON_NUM_THREADS
tests/determinism.rs runs the same deterministic 200-event history
at thread counts {1, 2, 4, 8} via rayon::ThreadPoolBuilder::install
and asserts every (time, posterior) pair has bit-identical mu and
sigma across all configurations.

Cfg-gated to the rayon feature; no-op under --features approx alone.

Verifies the T3 determinism invariant that the ordered-reduce
strategy (per-slice parallel, sequential sum) produces thread-count-
independent results.

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:59:33 +02:00
logaritmisk ab8e1fd684 feat(history): parallel log_evidence with deterministic sum
Per-slice log_evidence contribution computed in parallel under
--features rayon; final reduction is sequential .into_iter().sum()
on Vec<f64>, preserving slice order so the sum is bit-identical to
the sequential T2 baseline.

Essential for the T3 acceptance criterion of identical posteriors
across RAYON_NUM_THREADS values.

Part of T3.
2026-04-24 13:56:29 +02:00
logaritmisk f3c074c24c feat(history): parallel learning_curves under rayon feature
Per-slice posterior collection runs in parallel via par_iter; merge
into the per-key HashMap is sequential in slice order so iteration
order and HashMap insertion order are identical to the sequential
impl. Preserves deterministic output across thread counts.

Default-feature (no rayon) build unchanged — uses the T2 sequential
impl.

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:54:47 +02:00
logaritmisk 4b99485fc8 perf(time-slice): restore sequential direct-write path under cfg(not(feature = "rayon"))
The compute/apply split introduced in 3680c54 was always active — the
sequential build paid EventOutput heap-alloc overhead even without
rayon, regressing Batch::iteration from 23.46 µs to 33.79 µs (+44%).

This commit makes the split feature-gated: under cfg(feature = "rayon")
the compute/apply pattern stays (needed for par_iter); under
cfg(not(feature = "rayon")) events update SkillStore inline via
Event::iteration_direct, matching the T2 performance profile.

EventOutput, Event::compute, and Event::apply_output are now
cfg(feature = "rayon")-only. TimeSlice::sweep_color_groups has two
cfg-gated implementations sharing the same signature.

Sequential restored to 23.29 µs; parallel 34.31 µs (small-workload
overhead expected — rayon threadpool amortizes at larger scales).

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:52:48 +02:00
logaritmisk 3680c54d3c feat(time-slice): parallel within-slice event iteration via rayon
Under #[cfg(feature = "rayon")], the per-iteration event sweep
processes events color-by-color: within a color, events touch
disjoint Index values by construction, so par_iter is safe.
Across colors, sequential ordering preserves async-EP semantics.

Event::compute() is a pure function returning an owned EventOutput
(new per-item likelihoods, evidence, and pre-computed new skill
likelihoods). The apply phase runs sequentially after the parallel
map, writing EventOutput values back to SkillStore and each event's
item likelihoods. This avoids shared mutable state in the hot loop.

Default build (no rayon) uses a sequential fallback that traverses
the same color-group order — behaviorally identical to the parallel
path. This keeps goldens bit-identical across feature configurations.

Scenario 3b applied: event updates read from and write to the shared
SkillStore, so the compute/apply split (Option A) was necessary.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:48:41 +02:00
logaritmisk 9836b7b709 feat(time-slice): compute and maintain color groups; reorder events
TimeSlice gains a color_groups field of type ColorGroups, recomputed
whenever events change. After recompute, self.events is physically
reordered so color-0 events are first, then color-1, etc. Each color
is therefore a contiguous range of indices in self.events —
the invariant that Task 6's parallel par_iter_mut exploits.

Greedy coloring via crate::color_group::color_greedy; agent indices
come from Event::iter_agents. ColorGroups gains a color_range helper
that returns the contiguous Range<usize> for a given color.

Numerical behavior unchanged: async-EP is order-independent at
convergence, so event reordering does not affect goldens.

Part of T3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:42:05 +02:00
logaritmisk a40c0d6301 feat(color-group): add greedy within-slice event partitioning
ColorGroups holds a partition of event indices into color groups such
that events of the same color touch no shared Index. Computed greedily
in ingestion order: each event goes into the first color whose existing
members are disjoint from the event's indices.

Used in T3 for safe within-slice parallelism — events in the same
color can run concurrently without touching each other's skills.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:38:21 +02:00
logaritmisk 4f302ed28e feat(api): add Send + Sync bounds to public traits
Required for T3 rayon-based parallelism. Affected traits:
- Time (+ Send + Sync + 'static)
- Drift<T> (+ Send + Sync)
- Observer<T> (+ Send + Sync)
- Factor (+ Send + Sync)
- Schedule (+ Send + Sync)

All built-in impls (i64, Untimed, ConstantDrift, NullObserver,
EpsilonOrMax, TeamSumFactor, RankDiffFactor, TruncFactor,
BuiltinFactor) naturally satisfy these bounds via auto-derive.

Minor breaking change: downstream custom impls that aren't already
thread-safe will need to add the bounds.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:36:39 +02:00
logaritmisk 9fe40042da feat(cargo): add rayon as optional dependency
Opt-in feature flag — users who want parallel paths build with
--features rayon. Default build remains single-threaded.

Spec Section 6 calls for default-on; we defer that flip until the
feature is stable under field use.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:35:15 +02:00
logaritmisk f0793a8470 docs: add T3 concurrency implementation plan
11-task plan for rayon-backed within-slice parallelism per
Section 6 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:34:00 +02:00
23 changed files with 84 additions and 3006 deletions
-1
View File
@@ -35,7 +35,6 @@ History → Batch[] → Game[] → teams/players
- **`Player`** (`player.rs`) — static configuration: prior `Gaussian`, `beta` (performance noise), `gamma` (skill drift per time unit).
- **`Gaussian`** (`gaussian.rs`) — core probability type. Stored as natural parameters (`pi = 1/sigma²`, `tau = mu/sigma²`). Arithmetic ops implement message multiplication/division in the factor graph.
- **`message.rs`** — `TeamMessage` and `DiffMessage`: intermediate factor graph messages used inside `Game`.
- **`MarginFactor`** (`factor/margin.rs`) — Gaussian observation factor on a diff variable; engaged by `Outcome::Scored`.
- **`lib.rs`** — exports the public API (`Game`, `Gaussian`, `History`, `Player`) and standalone functions (`quality()`, `pdf()`, `cdf()`, `erfc()`). Also defines global defaults: `MU=0.0`, `SIGMA=6.0`, `BETA=1.0`, `GAMMA=0.03`, `P_DRAW=0.0`, `EPSILON=1e-6`, `ITERATIONS=30`.
### Key design points
+1 -5
View File
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
[package]
name = "trueskill-tt"
version = "0.1.1"
version = "0.1.0"
edition = "2024"
[lib]
@@ -18,10 +18,6 @@ harness = false
name = "history_converge"
harness = false
[[bench]]
name = "scored"
harness = false
[dependencies]
approx = { version = "0.5.1", optional = true }
rayon = { version = "1", optional = true }
-21
View File
@@ -71,27 +71,6 @@ let h = History::builder()
.build();
```
## Scored outcomes
Use `Outcome::scores([...])` when you have continuous per-team scores rather
than just ranks. Adjacent score margins flow into a `MarginFactor` that adds
soft Gaussian evidence about the latent performance diff. Configure
`HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` to control how much you trust the margins
(smaller σ = more trust).
```rust
use trueskill_tt::{History, Outcome};
let mut h = History::builder().score_sigma(2.0).build();
h.event(1)
.team(["alice"])
.team(["bob"])
.scores([21.0, 9.0])
.commit()
.unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
```
## Todo
- [x] Implement approx for Gaussian
+3 -5
View File
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use trueskill_tt::{
BETA, Competitor, EventKind, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice,
drift::ConstantDrift, gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
BETA, Competitor, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice, drift::ConstantDrift,
gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
};
fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
@@ -33,10 +33,8 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
weights.push(vec![vec![1.0], vec![1.0]]);
}
let kinds = vec![EventKind::Ranked; composition.len()];
let mut time_slice = TimeSlice::new(1, P_DRAW);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds, &agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &agents);
criterion.bench_function("Batch::iteration", |b| {
b.iter(|| time_slice.iteration(0, &agents))
-38
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@@ -1,38 +0,0 @@
use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
fn bench_scored_history(c: &mut Criterion) {
c.bench_function("scored_history_60_events_30_iter", |bencher| {
bencher.iter(|| {
let mut h: History<i64, ConstantDrift, _, String> = History::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
.score_sigma(2.0)
.build();
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(60);
for i in 0..60 {
let a = format!("p{}", i % 20);
let b = format!("p{}", (i + 7) % 20);
let s_a = (i as f64 * 0.3).sin().abs() * 21.0;
let s_b = (i as f64 * 0.3).cos().abs() * 21.0;
events.push(Event {
time: 1 + (i / 6) as i64,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(a)]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([s_a, s_b]),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
});
});
}
criterion_group!(benches, bench_scored_history);
criterion_main!(benches);
-14
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@@ -1,14 +0,0 @@
Finished `bench` profile [optimized + debuginfo] target(s) in 0.02s
Running benches/scored.rs (target/release/deps/scored-988d1798504ff7d2)
Gnuplot not found, using plotters backend
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Warming up for 3.0000 s
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Collecting 100 samples in estimated 9.7418 s (10k iterations)
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Analyzing
scored_history_60_events_30_iter
time: [959.36 µs 962.68 µs 966.13 µs]
Found 11 outliers among 100 measurements (11.00%)
1 (1.00%) low mild
5 (5.00%) high mild
5 (5.00%) high severe
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
@@ -578,7 +578,7 @@ All renames and the new public API land together. No half-renamed intermediate s
Each shipped independently after T3.
- `MarginFactor` → enables `Outcome::Scored`. **Done** (see `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md`).
- `MarginFactor` → enables `Outcome::Scored`.
- `Damped` and `Residual` schedules.
- `SynergyFactor`, `ScoreFactor` → same pattern when wanted.
-59
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@@ -1,59 +0,0 @@
//! Worked example: continuous-score outcomes via `Outcome::Scored`.
//!
//! Three players play a small round-robin where the score margin matters,
//! not just who won. We show how `score_sigma` controls how much weight
//! the engine places on the observed margin.
//!
//! Run with: `cargo run --example scored --release`
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
fn main() {
let mut h = History::builder()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
.score_sigma(2.0) // tune to data; smaller = trust margins more
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![
Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("alice")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("bob")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 9.0]),
},
Event {
time: 2,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("bob")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("carol")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 18.0]),
},
Event {
time: 3,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("alice")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("carol")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 21.0]),
},
];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let report = h.converge().unwrap();
println!(
"converged={}, iterations={}, log_evidence={:.4}",
report.converged, report.iterations, report.log_evidence
);
for who in &["alice", "bob", "carol"] {
let s = h.current_skill(who).unwrap();
println!("{:>6}: mu={:>7.3} sigma={:.3}", who, s.mu(), s.sigma());
}
}
-5
View File
@@ -10,8 +10,6 @@ pub enum InferenceError {
},
/// A probability value is outside `[0, 1]`.
InvalidProbability { value: f64 },
/// A scalar parameter is outside its valid range.
InvalidParameter { name: &'static str, value: f64 },
/// Convergence exceeded `max_iter` without falling below `epsilon`.
ConvergenceFailed {
last_step: (f64, f64),
@@ -34,9 +32,6 @@ impl fmt::Display for InferenceError {
Self::InvalidProbability { value } => {
write!(f, "probability must be in [0, 1]; got {value}")
}
Self::InvalidParameter { name, value } => {
write!(f, "{name} is invalid: {value}")
}
Self::ConvergenceFailed {
last_step,
iterations,
-6
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@@ -75,12 +75,6 @@ where
self
}
/// Set explicit per-team continuous scores; higher = better.
pub fn scores<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(mut self, scores: I) -> Self {
self.event.outcome = crate::Outcome::scores(scores);
self
}
/// Mark team `winner_idx` as winner; others tied for last.
pub fn winner(mut self, winner_idx: u32) -> Self {
self.event.outcome = Outcome::winner(winner_idx, self.event.teams.len() as u32);
-123
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@@ -1,123 +0,0 @@
use crate::{
N_INF,
factor::{Factor, VarId, VarStore},
gaussian::Gaussian,
pdf,
};
/// Gaussian observation factor on a diff variable.
///
/// Encodes the soft evidence `m_obs ~ N(diff, sigma²)`. The outgoing message
/// to `diff` is the constant `N(m_obs, sigma²)`, so this factor converges in a
/// single propagation: subsequent calls return a zero delta.
#[derive(Debug)]
pub struct MarginFactor {
pub diff: VarId,
pub m_obs: f64,
pub sigma: f64,
pub(crate) msg: Gaussian,
pub(crate) evidence_cached: Option<f64>,
}
impl MarginFactor {
pub fn new(diff: VarId, m_obs: f64, sigma: f64) -> Self {
debug_assert!(sigma > 0.0, "score sigma must be positive");
Self {
diff,
m_obs,
sigma,
msg: N_INF,
evidence_cached: None,
}
}
}
impl Factor for MarginFactor {
fn propagate(&mut self, vars: &mut VarStore) -> (f64, f64) {
let marginal = vars.get(self.diff);
let cavity = marginal / self.msg;
if self.evidence_cached.is_none() {
self.evidence_cached = Some(cavity_evidence(cavity, self.m_obs, self.sigma));
}
let new_msg = Gaussian::from_ms(self.m_obs, self.sigma);
let new_marginal = cavity * new_msg;
let old_msg = self.msg;
self.msg = new_msg;
vars.set(self.diff, new_marginal);
old_msg.delta(new_msg)
}
fn log_evidence(&self, _vars: &VarStore) -> f64 {
self.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0).ln()
}
}
fn cavity_evidence(cavity: Gaussian, m_obs: f64, sigma: f64) -> f64 {
let combined_sigma = (cavity.sigma().powi(2) + sigma.powi(2)).sqrt();
pdf(m_obs, cavity.mu(), combined_sigma)
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
#[test]
fn first_propagate_writes_tilted_marginal() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let result = vars.get(diff);
// pi = 1/36 + 1 ≈ 1.027778; tau = 0 + 5 = 5
// mu = 5 / 1.027778 ≈ 4.864865; sigma = 1/sqrt(1.027778) ≈ 0.986394
assert!((result.mu() - 4.864864864864865).abs() < 1e-12);
assert!((result.sigma() - 0.986393923832144).abs() < 1e-12);
}
#[test]
fn converges_in_one_step() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let (dmu, dsig) = f.propagate(&mut vars);
assert!(
dmu < 1e-12,
"expected ~0 delta on second propagate, got {dmu}"
);
assert!(dsig < 1e-12);
}
#[test]
fn evidence_cached_on_first_propagate() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
assert!(f.evidence_cached.is_none());
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let z = f.evidence_cached.unwrap();
// pdf(5, 0, sqrt(37)) ≈ 0.046783
assert!((z - 0.04678300292616668).abs() < 1e-10);
// Subsequent propagations don't change it.
f.propagate(&mut vars);
assert_eq!(f.evidence_cached.unwrap(), z);
}
#[test]
fn log_evidence_matches_cached_ln() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let logz = f.log_evidence(&vars);
assert!((logz - (-3.062235327364623)).abs() < 1e-10);
}
}
-20
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@@ -78,7 +78,6 @@ pub enum BuiltinFactor {
TeamSum(team_sum::TeamSumFactor),
RankDiff(rank_diff::RankDiffFactor),
Trunc(trunc::TruncFactor),
Margin(margin::MarginFactor),
}
impl Factor for BuiltinFactor {
@@ -87,20 +86,17 @@ impl Factor for BuiltinFactor {
Self::TeamSum(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::RankDiff(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Trunc(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.propagate(vars),
}
}
fn log_evidence(&self, vars: &VarStore) -> f64 {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.log_evidence(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.log_evidence(vars),
_ => 0.0,
}
}
}
pub mod margin;
pub mod rank_diff;
pub mod team_sum;
pub mod trunc;
@@ -149,20 +145,4 @@ mod tests {
assert_eq!(store.len(), 0);
assert_eq!(store.marginals.capacity(), cap);
}
#[test]
fn builtin_factor_dispatches_to_margin() {
use super::margin::MarginFactor;
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = BuiltinFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0));
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let result = vars.get(diff);
assert!((result.mu() - 4.864864864864865).abs() < 1e-12);
let logz = f.log_evidence(&vars);
assert!((logz - (-3.062235327364623)).abs() < 1e-10);
}
}
+2 -2
View File
@@ -6,8 +6,8 @@
pub use crate::{
factor::{
BuiltinFactor, Factor, VarId, VarStore, margin::MarginFactor, rank_diff::RankDiffFactor,
team_sum::TeamSumFactor, trunc::TruncFactor,
BuiltinFactor, Factor, VarId, VarStore, rank_diff::RankDiffFactor, team_sum::TeamSumFactor,
trunc::TruncFactor,
},
schedule::{EpsilonOrMax, Schedule, ScheduleReport},
};
+22 -401
View File
@@ -5,63 +5,16 @@ use crate::{
arena::ScratchArena,
compute_margin,
drift::Drift,
factor::{VarId, margin::MarginFactor, trunc::TruncFactor},
factor::{Factor, trunc::TruncFactor},
gaussian::Gaussian,
rating::Rating,
time::Time,
tuple_gt, tuple_max,
};
/// Per-adjacent-pair link factor in the game's diff chain.
///
/// `Trunc` is used for `Outcome::Ranked` (rank-based truncation).
/// `Margin` is used for `Outcome::Scored` (Gaussian observation on the diff).
#[derive(Debug)]
pub(crate) enum DiffFactor {
Trunc(TruncFactor),
Margin(MarginFactor),
}
impl DiffFactor {
pub(crate) fn diff(&self) -> VarId {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.diff,
Self::Margin(f) => f.diff,
}
}
pub(crate) fn msg(&self) -> Gaussian {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.msg,
Self::Margin(f) => f.msg,
}
}
pub(crate) fn evidence(&self) -> f64 {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0),
Self::Margin(f) => f.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0),
}
}
pub(crate) fn propagate(&mut self, vars: &mut crate::factor::VarStore) -> (f64, f64) {
use crate::factor::Factor;
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.propagate(vars),
}
}
}
/// Per-game inference options.
///
/// `p_draw` and `convergence` apply to ranked outcomes (`Game::ranked`).
/// `score_sigma` applies only to scored outcomes (`Game::scored`); it controls
/// how much the engine trusts the observed score margin (smaller σ = more trust).
#[derive(Clone, Copy, Debug)]
pub struct GameOptions {
pub p_draw: f64,
pub score_sigma: f64,
pub convergence: crate::ConvergenceOptions,
}
@@ -69,7 +22,6 @@ impl Default for GameOptions {
fn default() -> Self {
Self {
p_draw: crate::P_DRAW,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: crate::ConvergenceOptions::default(),
}
}
@@ -112,26 +64,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> OwnedGame<T, D> {
}
}
pub(crate) fn new_scored(
teams: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>>,
scores: Vec<f64>,
weights: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
score_sigma: f64,
) -> Self {
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let g = Game::scored_with_arena(teams.clone(), &scores, &weights, score_sigma, &mut arena);
let likelihoods = g.likelihoods;
let evidence = g.evidence;
Self {
teams,
result: scores,
weights,
p_draw: 0.0,
likelihoods,
evidence,
}
}
pub fn posteriors(&self) -> Vec<Vec<Gaussian>> {
self.likelihoods
.iter()
@@ -200,39 +132,6 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
this
}
pub(crate) fn scored_with_arena(
teams: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>>,
scores: &'a [f64],
weights: &'a [Vec<f64>],
score_sigma: f64,
arena: &mut ScratchArena,
) -> Self {
debug_assert!(
scores.len() == teams.len(),
"scores must have the same length as teams"
);
debug_assert!(
weights
.iter()
.zip(teams.iter())
.all(|(w, t)| w.len() == t.len()),
"weights must have the same dimensions as teams"
);
debug_assert!(score_sigma > 0.0, "score_sigma must be positive");
let mut this = Self {
teams,
result: scores,
weights,
p_draw: 0.0,
likelihoods: Vec::new(),
evidence: 0.0,
};
this.likelihoods_scored(arena, score_sigma);
this
}
fn likelihoods(&mut self, arena: &mut ScratchArena) {
arena.reset();
@@ -256,9 +155,9 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
let n_diffs = n_teams.saturating_sub(1);
// One DiffFactor per adjacent sorted-team pair; each owns a diff VarId.
// links stays local (fresh state per game; Vec capacity is typically small).
let mut links: Vec<DiffFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
// One TruncFactor per adjacent sorted-team pair; each owns a diff VarId.
// trunc stays local (fresh state per game; Vec capacity is typically small).
let mut trunc: Vec<TruncFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
.map(|i| {
let tie = self.result[arena.sort_buf[i]] == self.result[arena.sort_buf[i + 1]];
let margin = if self.p_draw == 0.0 {
@@ -275,7 +174,7 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
compute_margin(self.p_draw, (a + b).sqrt())
};
let vid = arena.vars.alloc(N_INF);
DiffFactor::Trunc(TruncFactor::new(vid, margin, tie))
TruncFactor::new(vid, margin, tie)
})
.collect();
@@ -290,30 +189,30 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
step = (0.0_f64, 0.0_f64);
// Forward sweep: diffs 0 .. n_diffs-2 (all but the last).
for (e, lf) in links[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (e, tf) in trunc[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(tf.diff, raw * tf.msg);
let d = tf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_ll = pw - lf.msg();
let new_ll = pw - tf.msg;
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_lose[e + 1].delta(new_ll));
arena.lhood_lose[e + 1] = new_ll;
}
// Backward sweep: diffs n_diffs-1 .. 1 (reverse, all but the first).
for (rev_i, lf) in links[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
for (rev_i, tf) in trunc[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
let e = n_diffs - 1 - rev_i;
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(tf.diff, raw * tf.msg);
let d = tf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_lw = pl + lf.msg();
let new_lw = pl + tf.msg;
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_win[e].delta(new_lw));
arena.lhood_win[e] = new_lw;
}
@@ -325,20 +224,23 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
if n_diffs == 1 {
let raw = (arena.team_prior[0] * arena.lhood_lose[0])
- (arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1]);
arena.vars.set(links[0].diff(), raw * links[0].msg());
links[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(trunc[0].diff, raw * trunc[0].msg);
trunc[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
}
// Boundary updates: close the chain at both ends.
if n_diffs > 0 {
let pl1 = arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1];
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + links[0].msg();
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + trunc[0].msg;
let pw_last = arena.team_prior[n_teams - 2] * arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 2];
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - links[n_diffs - 1].msg();
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - trunc[n_diffs - 1].msg;
}
// Evidence = product of per-diff evidences (each cached on first propagation).
self.evidence = links.iter().map(|l| l.evidence()).product();
self.evidence = trunc
.iter()
.map(|t| t.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0))
.product();
// Inverse permutation: inv_buf[orig_i] = sorted_i.
arena.inv_buf.resize(n_teams, 0);
@@ -370,120 +272,6 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
.collect::<Vec<_>>();
}
fn likelihoods_scored(&mut self, arena: &mut ScratchArena, score_sigma: f64) {
arena.reset();
let n_teams = self.teams.len();
arena.sort_buf.extend(0..n_teams);
arena.sort_buf.sort_by(|&i, &j| {
self.result[j]
.partial_cmp(&self.result[i])
.unwrap_or(Ordering::Equal)
});
arena.team_prior.extend(arena.sort_buf.iter().map(|&t| {
self.teams[t]
.iter()
.zip(self.weights[t].iter())
.fold(N00, |p, (player, &w)| p + (player.performance() * w))
}));
let n_diffs = n_teams.saturating_sub(1);
let mut links: Vec<DiffFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
.map(|i| {
// After descending-by-score sort, m_obs >= 0 for every adjacent pair.
let m_obs = self.result[arena.sort_buf[i]] - self.result[arena.sort_buf[i + 1]];
let vid = arena.vars.alloc(N_INF);
DiffFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(vid, m_obs, score_sigma))
})
.collect();
arena.lhood_lose.resize(n_teams, N_INF);
arena.lhood_win.resize(n_teams, N_INF);
let mut step = (f64::INFINITY, f64::INFINITY);
let mut iter = 0;
while tuple_gt(step, 1e-6) && iter < 10 {
step = (0.0_f64, 0.0_f64);
for (e, lf) in links[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_ll = pw - lf.msg();
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_lose[e + 1].delta(new_ll));
arena.lhood_lose[e + 1] = new_ll;
}
for (rev_i, lf) in links[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
let e = n_diffs - 1 - rev_i;
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_lw = pl + lf.msg();
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_win[e].delta(new_lw));
arena.lhood_win[e] = new_lw;
}
iter += 1;
}
if n_diffs == 1 {
let raw = (arena.team_prior[0] * arena.lhood_lose[0])
- (arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1]);
arena.vars.set(links[0].diff(), raw * links[0].msg());
links[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
}
if n_diffs > 0 {
let pl1 = arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1];
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + links[0].msg();
let pw_last = arena.team_prior[n_teams - 2] * arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 2];
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - links[n_diffs - 1].msg();
}
self.evidence = links.iter().map(|l| l.evidence()).product();
arena.inv_buf.resize(n_teams, 0);
for (si, &orig_i) in arena.sort_buf.iter().enumerate() {
arena.inv_buf[orig_i] = si;
}
self.likelihoods = self
.teams
.iter()
.zip(self.weights.iter())
.enumerate()
.map(|(orig_i, (players, weights))| {
let si = arena.inv_buf[orig_i];
let m = arena.lhood_win[si] * arena.lhood_lose[si];
let performance = players
.iter()
.zip(weights.iter())
.fold(N00, |p, (player, &w)| p + (player.performance() * w));
players
.iter()
.zip(weights.iter())
.map(|(player, &w)| {
((m - performance.exclude(player.performance() * w)) * (1.0 / w))
.forget(player.beta.powi(2))
})
.collect::<Vec<_>>()
})
.collect::<Vec<_>>();
}
pub fn posteriors(&self) -> Vec<Vec<Gaussian>> {
self.likelihoods
.iter()
@@ -521,13 +309,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'_, T, D> {
});
}
let ranks = outcome
.as_ranks()
.ok_or(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "Game::ranked requires Outcome::Ranked",
expected: 0,
got: 0,
})?;
let ranks = outcome.as_ranks();
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
let result: Vec<f64> = ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect();
let teams_owned: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>> = teams.iter().map(|t| t.to_vec()).collect();
@@ -536,42 +318,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'_, T, D> {
Ok(OwnedGame::new(teams_owned, result, weights, options.p_draw))
}
pub fn scored(
teams: &[&[Rating<T, D>]],
outcome: crate::Outcome,
options: &GameOptions,
) -> Result<OwnedGame<T, D>, crate::InferenceError> {
if options.score_sigma <= 0.0 || options.score_sigma.is_nan() {
return Err(crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
name: "score_sigma",
value: options.score_sigma,
});
}
if outcome.team_count() != teams.len() {
return Err(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "outcome scores vs teams",
expected: teams.len(),
got: outcome.team_count(),
});
}
let scores = outcome
.as_scores()
.ok_or(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "Game::scored requires Outcome::Scored",
expected: 0,
got: 0,
})?
.to_vec();
let teams_owned: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>> = teams.iter().map(|t| t.to_vec()).collect();
let weights: Vec<Vec<f64>> = teams.iter().map(|t| vec![1.0; t.len()]).collect();
Ok(OwnedGame::new_scored(
teams_owned,
scores,
weights,
options.score_sigma,
))
}
pub fn one_v_one(
a: &Rating<T, D>,
b: &Rating<T, D>,
@@ -1059,131 +805,6 @@ mod tests {
assert_ulps_eq!(p[0][0], p[1][0], epsilon = 1e-6);
}
#[test]
fn diff_factor_dispatch_trunc_and_margin() {
use super::DiffFactor;
use crate::factor::{VarStore, margin::MarginFactor, trunc::TruncFactor};
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let dt = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let dm = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut t = DiffFactor::Trunc(TruncFactor::new(dt, 0.0, false));
let mut m = DiffFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(dm, 5.0, 1.0));
let _ = t.propagate(&mut vars);
let _ = m.propagate(&mut vars);
// Smoke: both diffs got written; their msgs are non-N_INF.
assert!(t.msg().pi() > 0.0);
assert!(m.msg().pi() > 0.0);
assert_eq!(t.diff(), dt);
assert_eq!(m.diff(), dm);
}
#[test]
fn scored_path_sharper_when_margin_is_large() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let teams = vec![vec![prior], vec![prior]];
let result = vec![10.0, 0.0]; // a beat b by 10
let weights = [vec![1.0], vec![1.0]];
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let g = Game::scored_with_arena(
teams, &result, &weights, 1.0, // score_sigma
&mut arena,
);
let p = g.posteriors();
let a = p[0][0];
let b = p[1][0];
assert!(
a.mu() > b.mu(),
"expected team a posterior mu > team b; got {} vs {}",
a.mu(),
b.mu()
);
// Tighter score_sigma should produce a stronger update.
let mut arena2 = ScratchArena::new();
let g_tight = Game::scored_with_arena(
vec![vec![prior], vec![prior]],
&result,
&weights,
0.1, // tighter score_sigma
&mut arena2,
);
let p_tight = g_tight.posteriors();
let a_tight = p_tight[0][0];
assert!(
a_tight.mu() > a.mu(),
"expected tighter sigma to push posterior further; {} vs {}",
a_tight.mu(),
a.mu()
);
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_public_ctor() {
use crate::Outcome;
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let opts = GameOptions {
score_sigma: 1.0,
..GameOptions::default()
};
let g = Game::scored(&[&[prior], &[prior]], Outcome::scores([8.0, 2.0]), &opts).unwrap();
let p = g.posteriors();
assert!(p[0][0].mu() > p[1][0].mu());
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_rejects_ranked_outcome() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let err = Game::scored(
&[&[prior], &[prior]],
crate::Outcome::winner(0, 2),
&GameOptions::default(),
)
.unwrap_err();
assert!(matches!(err, crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape { .. }));
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_rejects_zero_score_sigma() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let opts = GameOptions {
score_sigma: 0.0,
..GameOptions::default()
};
let err = Game::scored(
&[&[prior], &[prior]],
crate::Outcome::scores([1.0, 0.0]),
&opts,
)
.unwrap_err();
assert!(matches!(
err,
crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
name: "score_sigma",
..
}
));
}
#[test]
fn test_2vs2_weighted() {
let t_a = vec![
+11 -56
View File
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ use crate::{
sort_time,
storage::CompetitorStore,
time::Time,
time_slice::{self, EventKind, TimeSlice},
time_slice::{self, TimeSlice},
tuple_gt, tuple_max,
};
@@ -30,7 +30,6 @@ pub struct HistoryBuilder<
drift: D,
p_draw: f64,
online: bool,
score_sigma: f64,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
observer: O,
_time: PhantomData<T>,
@@ -61,7 +60,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
beta: self.beta,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer: self.observer,
_time: self._time,
@@ -79,15 +77,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
self
}
pub fn score_sigma(mut self, score_sigma: f64) -> Self {
assert!(
score_sigma > 0.0,
"score_sigma must be positive (got {score_sigma})"
);
self.score_sigma = score_sigma;
self
}
pub fn convergence(mut self, opts: ConvergenceOptions) -> Self {
self.convergence = opts;
self
@@ -101,7 +90,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
drift: self.drift,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer,
_time: self._time,
@@ -121,7 +109,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
drift: self.drift,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer: self.observer,
}
@@ -137,7 +124,6 @@ impl Default for HistoryBuilder<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str>
drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
p_draw: P_DRAW,
online: false,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
observer: NullObserver,
_time: PhantomData,
@@ -162,7 +148,6 @@ pub struct History<
drift: D,
p_draw: f64,
online: bool,
score_sigma: f64,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
observer: O,
}
@@ -189,7 +174,6 @@ impl<K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, K> {
drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
p_draw: P_DRAW,
online: false,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
observer: NullObserver,
_time: PhantomData,
@@ -466,7 +450,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
results: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
times: Vec<T>,
weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>,
kinds: Vec<EventKind>,
mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>>,
) -> Result<(), InferenceError> {
if !results.is_empty() && results.len() != composition.len() {
@@ -490,13 +473,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
got: weights.len(),
});
}
if kinds.len() != composition.len() {
return Err(InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "kinds",
expected: composition.len(),
got: kinds.len(),
});
}
competitor::clean(self.agents.values_mut(), true);
@@ -581,11 +557,9 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
(i..j).map(|e| weights[o[e]].clone()).collect::<Vec<_>>()
};
let kinds_chunk: Vec<EventKind> = (i..j).map(|e| kinds[o[e]]).collect();
if self.time_slices.len() > k && self.time_slices[k].time == t {
let time_slice = &mut self.time_slices[k];
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds_chunk, &self.agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &self.agents);
for agent_idx in time_slice.skills.keys() {
let agent = self.agents.get_mut(agent_idx).unwrap();
@@ -595,7 +569,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
}
} else {
let mut time_slice = TimeSlice::new(t, self.p_draw);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds_chunk, &self.agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &self.agents);
self.time_slices.insert(k, time_slice);
@@ -652,7 +626,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![time],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked],
HashMap::new(),
)
}
@@ -669,7 +642,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
vec![vec![0.0, 0.0]],
vec![time],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked],
HashMap::new(),
)
}
@@ -694,15 +666,15 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
let mut results: Vec<Vec<f64>> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut times: Vec<T> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut kinds: Vec<EventKind> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>> = HashMap::new();
for ev in events {
if ev.outcome.team_count() != ev.teams.len() {
let ranks = ev.outcome.as_ranks();
if ranks.len() != ev.teams.len() {
return Err(InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "outcome vs teams",
kind: "outcome ranks vs teams",
expected: ev.teams.len(),
got: ev.outcome.team_count(),
got: ranks.len(),
});
}
@@ -726,24 +698,13 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
composition.push(event_comp);
weights.push(event_weights);
let event_result: Vec<f64> = match &ev.outcome {
crate::Outcome::Ranked(ranks) => {
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
kinds.push(EventKind::Ranked);
ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect()
}
crate::Outcome::Scored(scores) => {
kinds.push(EventKind::Scored {
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
});
scores.to_vec()
}
};
results.push(event_result);
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
let inverted: Vec<f64> = ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect();
results.push(inverted);
times.push(ev.time);
}
self.add_events_with_prior(composition, results, times, weights, kinds, priors)
self.add_events_with_prior(composition, results, times, weights, priors)
}
}
@@ -1705,10 +1666,4 @@ mod tests {
assert!(report.iterations < 30);
assert!(report.final_step.0 <= 1e-6);
}
#[test]
#[should_panic(expected = "score_sigma must be positive")]
fn history_builder_rejects_zero_score_sigma() {
let _ = History::builder().score_sigma(0.0).build();
}
}
+1 -1
View File
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ mod approx;
pub(crate) mod arena;
mod time;
mod time_slice;
pub use time_slice::{EventKind, TimeSlice};
pub use time_slice::TimeSlice;
mod color_group;
mod competitor;
mod convergence;
+11 -49
View File
@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
//! Outcome of a match.
//!
//! `Ranked(ranks)` for ordinal results; `Scored(scores)` for continuous
//! per-team scores (engages `MarginFactor` in the engine).
//! In T2, only `Ranked` is supported; `Scored` will be added together with
//! `MarginFactor` in T4. The enum is `#[non_exhaustive]` so adding `Scored`
//! is non-breaking for downstream `match` expressions.
use smallvec::SmallVec;
@@ -9,19 +10,14 @@ use smallvec::SmallVec;
///
/// `Ranked(ranks)`: lower rank = better. Equal ranks mean a tie between those
/// teams. `ranks.len()` must equal the number of teams in the event.
///
/// `Scored(scores)`: higher score = better. Adjacent (sorted) pairs feed
/// observed margins to `MarginFactor`. `scores.len()` must equal the number
/// of teams in the event.
#[derive(Clone, Debug, PartialEq)]
#[non_exhaustive]
pub enum Outcome {
Ranked(SmallVec<[u32; 4]>),
Scored(SmallVec<[f64; 4]>),
}
impl Outcome {
/// `n`-team outcome where team `winner` won and everyone else tied for last.
/// `N`-team outcome where team `winner` won and everyone else tied for last.
///
/// Panics if `winner >= n`.
pub fn winner(winner: u32, n: u32) -> Self {
@@ -40,29 +36,16 @@ impl Outcome {
Self::Ranked(ranks.into_iter().collect())
}
/// Explicit per-team continuous scores; higher = better.
pub fn scores<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(scores: I) -> Self {
Self::Scored(scores.into_iter().collect())
}
pub fn team_count(&self) -> usize {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => r.len(),
Self::Scored(s) => s.len(),
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_ranks(&self) -> Option<&[u32]> {
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn as_ranks(&self) -> &[u32] {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => Some(r),
Self::Scored(_) => None,
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_scores(&self) -> Option<&[f64]> {
match self {
Self::Scored(s) => Some(s),
Self::Ranked(_) => None,
Self::Ranked(r) => r,
}
}
}
@@ -74,26 +57,26 @@ mod tests {
#[test]
fn winner_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[0u32, 1]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
}
#[test]
fn winner_three_teams_second_wins() {
let o = Outcome::winner(1, 3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[1u32, 0, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[1u32, 0, 1]);
}
#[test]
fn draw_three_teams() {
let o = Outcome::draw(3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 0, 0][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[0u32, 0, 0]);
}
#[test]
fn ranking_from_iter() {
let o = Outcome::ranking([2, 0, 1]);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[2u32, 0, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[2u32, 0, 1]);
}
#[test]
@@ -101,25 +84,4 @@ mod tests {
fn winner_out_of_range_panics() {
let _ = Outcome::winner(2, 2);
}
#[test]
fn scored_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_scores(), Some(&[10.0, 4.0][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), None);
}
#[test]
fn scored_team_count_matches_input() {
let o = Outcome::scores([3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 4);
}
#[test]
fn ranked_as_scores_returns_none() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert!(o.as_scores().is_none());
assert!(o.as_ranks().is_some());
}
}
+32 -59
View File
@@ -44,13 +44,6 @@ impl Default for Skill {
}
}
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy)]
#[non_exhaustive]
pub enum EventKind {
Ranked,
Scored { score_sigma: f64 },
}
#[derive(Debug)]
struct Item {
agent: Index,
@@ -89,7 +82,6 @@ pub(crate) struct Event {
teams: Vec<Team>,
evidence: f64,
weights: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
kind: EventKind,
}
impl Event {
@@ -137,14 +129,7 @@ impl Event {
) {
let teams = self.within_priors(false, false, skills, agents);
let result = self.outputs();
let g = match self.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => {
Game::ranked_with_arena(teams, &result, &self.weights, p_draw, arena)
}
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => {
Game::scored_with_arena(teams, &result, &self.weights, score_sigma, arena)
}
};
let g = Game::ranked_with_arena(teams, &result, &self.weights, p_draw, arena);
for (t, team) in self.teams.iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (i, item) in team.items.iter_mut().enumerate() {
@@ -220,7 +205,6 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
composition: Vec<Vec<Vec<Index>>>,
results: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>,
kinds: Vec<EventKind>,
agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
) {
let mut unique = Vec::with_capacity(10);
@@ -290,7 +274,6 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
teams,
evidence: 0.0,
weights,
kind: kinds[e],
}
});
@@ -316,22 +299,13 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
let teams = event.within_priors(false, false, &self.skills, agents);
let result = event.outputs();
let g = match event.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => Game::ranked_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut self.arena,
),
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => Game::scored_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
score_sigma,
&mut self.arena,
),
};
let g = Game::ranked_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut self.arena,
);
for (t, team) in event.teams.iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (i, item) in team.items.iter_mut().enumerate() {
@@ -500,28 +474,21 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
// log_evidence is infrequent; a local arena avoids needing &mut self.
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let run_event = |event: &Event, arena: &mut ScratchArena| -> f64 {
let teams = event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents);
let result = event.outputs();
match event.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => {
Game::ranked_with_arena(teams, &result, &event.weights, self.p_draw, arena)
.evidence
.ln()
}
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => {
Game::scored_with_arena(teams, &result, &event.weights, score_sigma, arena)
.evidence
.ln()
}
}
};
if targets.is_empty() {
if online || forward {
self.events
.iter()
.map(|event| run_event(event, &mut arena))
.map(|event| {
Game::ranked_with_arena(
event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents),
&event.outputs(),
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut arena,
)
.evidence
.ln()
})
.sum()
} else {
self.events.iter().map(|event| event.evidence.ln()).sum()
@@ -529,14 +496,25 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
} else if online || forward {
self.events
.iter()
.filter(|event| {
.enumerate()
.filter(|(_, event)| {
event
.teams
.iter()
.flat_map(|team| &team.items)
.any(|item| targets.contains(&item.agent))
})
.map(|event| run_event(event, &mut arena))
.map(|(_, event)| {
Game::ranked_with_arena(
event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents),
&event.outputs(),
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut arena,
)
.evidence
.ln()
})
.sum()
} else {
self.events
@@ -631,7 +609,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -708,7 +685,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -788,7 +764,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -820,7 +795,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -886,7 +860,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
-23
View File
@@ -223,26 +223,3 @@ fn predict_outcome_two_teams_sums_to_one() {
assert!((p[0] + p[1] - 1.0).abs() < 1e-9);
assert!(p[0] > p[1]);
}
#[test]
fn fluent_event_builder_scores() {
use trueskill_tt::ConstantDrift;
let mut h = History::builder()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.build();
h.event(1)
.team(["alice"])
.team(["bob"])
.scores([12.0, 4.0])
.commit()
.unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
let a = h.current_skill(&"alice").unwrap();
let b = h.current_skill(&"bob").unwrap();
assert!(a.mu() > b.mu());
}
-1
View File
@@ -42,7 +42,6 @@ fn game_1v1_draw_golden() {
Outcome::draw(2),
&GameOptions {
p_draw: 0.25,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: Default::default(),
},
)
-1
View File
@@ -45,7 +45,6 @@ fn game_ranked_rejects_bad_p_draw() {
Outcome::winner(0, 2),
&GameOptions {
p_draw: 1.5,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
},
)
-139
View File
@@ -1,139 +0,0 @@
//! Integration tests for `Outcome::Scored` routing through `History::add_events`.
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
#[test]
fn scored_two_team_one_event_pulls_winner_up() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
assert!(
mu_a > 0.0,
"winner mu should be pulled up; got mu_a = {mu_a}"
);
assert!(
mu_b < 0.0,
"loser mu should be pulled down; got mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_a > mu_b,
"winner mu should exceed loser mu; got mu_a = {mu_a}, mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_zero_margin_treats_as_tie() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([5.0, 5.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
let sigma_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().sigma();
// Equal scores: posterior means stay symmetric around the prior mean.
assert!(
(mu_a - mu_b).abs() < 1e-9,
"equal scores should leave mu_a == mu_b; got {mu_a} vs {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_a.abs() < 1e-9,
"equal scores against equal priors should leave mu near zero; got {mu_a}"
);
// A zero-margin scored event still reduces uncertainty.
assert!(
sigma_a < 2.0,
"expected sigma to tighten below prior 2.0; got {}",
sigma_a
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_three_team_partial_order() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("c")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([9.0, 5.0, 1.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
let mu_c = h.current_skill(&"c").unwrap().mu();
assert!(
mu_a > mu_b,
"team with highest score should rank highest; mu_a = {mu_a}, mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_b > mu_c,
"middle score should outrank lowest; mu_b = {mu_b}, mu_c = {mu_c}"
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_rejects_outcome_team_count_mismatch() {
use trueskill_tt::InferenceError;
let mut h: History = History::builder().build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0, 1.0]), // 3 scores, 2 teams
}];
let err = h.add_events(events).unwrap_err();
assert!(
matches!(err, InferenceError::MismatchedShape { .. }),
"expected MismatchedShape error, got {err:?}"
);
}