3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
logaritmisk 4f302ed28e feat(api): add Send + Sync bounds to public traits
Required for T3 rayon-based parallelism. Affected traits:
- Time (+ Send + Sync + 'static)
- Drift<T> (+ Send + Sync)
- Observer<T> (+ Send + Sync)
- Factor (+ Send + Sync)
- Schedule (+ Send + Sync)

All built-in impls (i64, Untimed, ConstantDrift, NullObserver,
EpsilonOrMax, TeamSumFactor, RankDiffFactor, TruncFactor,
BuiltinFactor) naturally satisfy these bounds via auto-derive.

Minor breaking change: downstream custom impls that aren't already
thread-safe will need to add the bounds.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:36:39 +02:00
logaritmisk 9fe40042da feat(cargo): add rayon as optional dependency
Opt-in feature flag — users who want parallel paths build with
--features rayon. Default build remains single-threaded.

Spec Section 6 calls for default-on; we defer that flip until the
feature is stable under field use.

Part of T3 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.
2026-04-24 13:35:15 +02:00
logaritmisk f0793a8470 docs: add T3 concurrency implementation plan
11-task plan for rayon-backed within-slice parallelism per
Section 6 of docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-24 13:34:00 +02:00
28 changed files with 105 additions and 3760 deletions
-60
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@@ -2,66 +2,6 @@
All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
## Unreleased — T3 concurrency
Adds rayon-backed parallel paths per Section 6 of
`docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`.
### Breaking
- `Send + Sync` bounds added to public traits: `Time`, `Drift<T>`,
`Observer<T>`, `Factor`, `Schedule`. All built-in impls satisfy these
via auto-derive, but downstream custom impls that aren't thread-safe
will need the bounds.
### New
- Opt-in `rayon` cargo feature. When enabled:
- Within-slice event iteration runs color-group events in parallel
via `par_iter_mut` (`TimeSlice::sweep_color_groups`).
- `History::learning_curves` computes per-slice posteriors in
parallel, merges sequentially in slice order.
- `History::log_evidence` / `log_evidence_for` use per-slice parallel
computation with deterministic sequential reduction (sum in slice
order) — bit-identical to the sequential baseline.
- `ColorGroups` internal infrastructure with greedy graph coloring
(`src/color_group.rs`). Events sharing no `Index` go into the same
color group; events in the same group can run concurrently without
touching each other's skills.
- `tests/determinism.rs` asserts bit-identical posteriors across
`RAYON_NUM_THREADS={1, 2, 4, 8}`.
- `benches/history_converge.rs` measures end-to-end convergence on
three workload shapes.
### Performance notes
- Default build (no rayon): `Batch::iteration` 23.23 µs — no regression
vs T2.
- With `--features rayon`:
- 500 events / 100 competitors / 10 per slice: 1.0× speedup.
- 2000 events / 200 competitors / 20 per slice: 1.0× speedup.
- 5000 events in one slice / 50k competitors: **1.3× speedup.**
- The spec targeted >2× speedup on 8-core offline converge. This is
only achievable on workloads with many events-per-slice AND large
competitor pools. **Typical TrueSkill workloads (tens of events
per slice) do not materially benefit from T3's within-slice
parallelism** because rayon's task-spawn overhead dominates.
- Cross-slice parallelism (dirty-bit slice skipping per spec Section
5) is the natural next step for real workload speedup — deferred
to a future tier.
### Internals
- The parallel path uses an `unsafe` block to concurrently write to
`SkillStore` from color-group-disjoint events. Soundness rests on
the color-group invariant (events in the same color touch no shared
`Index`), which is guaranteed by construction in
`TimeSlice::recompute_color_groups`. Sequential path unchanged.
- `RAYON_THRESHOLD = 64` — color groups smaller than this fall back to
sequential iteration inside the parallel `sweep_color_groups` to
avoid rayon's task-spawn overhead.
- Thread-local `ScratchArena` per rayon worker thread.
## Unreleased — T2 new API surface
Breaking: every renamed type and the new public API land together per
-1
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@@ -35,7 +35,6 @@ History → Batch[] → Game[] → teams/players
- **`Player`** (`player.rs`) — static configuration: prior `Gaussian`, `beta` (performance noise), `gamma` (skill drift per time unit).
- **`Gaussian`** (`gaussian.rs`) — core probability type. Stored as natural parameters (`pi = 1/sigma²`, `tau = mu/sigma²`). Arithmetic ops implement message multiplication/division in the factor graph.
- **`message.rs`** — `TeamMessage` and `DiffMessage`: intermediate factor graph messages used inside `Game`.
- **`MarginFactor`** (`factor/margin.rs`) — Gaussian observation factor on a diff variable; engaged by `Outcome::Scored`.
- **`lib.rs`** — exports the public API (`Game`, `Gaussian`, `History`, `Player`) and standalone functions (`quality()`, `pdf()`, `cdf()`, `erfc()`). Also defines global defaults: `MU=0.0`, `SIGMA=6.0`, `BETA=1.0`, `GAMMA=0.03`, `P_DRAW=0.0`, `EPSILON=1e-6`, `ITERATIONS=30`.
### Key design points
+1 -9
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@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
[package]
name = "trueskill-tt"
version = "0.1.1"
version = "0.1.0"
edition = "2024"
[lib]
@@ -14,14 +14,6 @@ harness = false
name = "gaussian"
harness = false
[[bench]]
name = "history_converge"
harness = false
[[bench]]
name = "scored"
harness = false
[dependencies]
approx = { version = "0.5.1", optional = true }
rayon = { version = "1", optional = true }
-21
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@@ -71,27 +71,6 @@ let h = History::builder()
.build();
```
## Scored outcomes
Use `Outcome::scores([...])` when you have continuous per-team scores rather
than just ranks. Adjacent score margins flow into a `MarginFactor` that adds
soft Gaussian evidence about the latent performance diff. Configure
`HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` to control how much you trust the margins
(smaller σ = more trust).
```rust
use trueskill_tt::{History, Outcome};
let mut h = History::builder().score_sigma(2.0).build();
h.event(1)
.team(["alice"])
.team(["bob"])
.scores([21.0, 9.0])
.commit()
.unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
```
## Todo
- [x] Implement approx for Gaussian
-32
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@@ -98,35 +98,3 @@ Gaussian::tau 260.80 ps (unchanged)
# learning_curves_by_index(), nested-Vec public add_events().
# - 90 tests green: 68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner +
# 2 equivalence.
# After T3 (2026-04-24, same hardware)
Batch::iteration (seq, no rayon) 23.23 µs (matches T2 baseline; no regression)
Batch::iteration (rayon, small slice) 24.57 µs (within noise; small workloads pay rayon overhead)
Gaussian::add 236.62 ps (unchanged)
Gaussian::sub 236.43 ps (unchanged)
Gaussian::mul 237.05 ps (unchanged)
Gaussian::div 236.07 ps (unchanged)
# End-to-end history_converge benchmark (Apple M5 Pro, RAYON_NUM_THREADS=auto):
# workload seq rayon speedup
# 500 events, 100 competitors, 10/slice 4.03 ms 4.24 ms 1.0x
# 2000 events, 200 competitors, 20/slice 20.18 ms 19.82 ms 1.0x
# 5000 events, 50000 competitors, 1 slice 11.88 ms 9.10 ms 1.3x
#
# Notes:
# - T3's within-slice color-group parallelism only materializes a speedup
# when a slice holds many events with disjoint competitor sets. Typical
# TrueSkill workloads (tens of events per slice) don't show measurable
# benefit from rayon.
# - The pre-revert SmallVec experiment hit 2x on the 5000-event workload
# but regressed sequential Batch::iteration by 28%. The tradeoff wasn't
# worth it for typical workloads — ShipVec<[_; 8]> inline size (1 KB per
# Game struct) hurt cache locality on the hot path.
# - Cross-slice parallelism (dirty-bit slice skipping per spec Section 5)
# is the natural next step for realistic TrueSkill workloads and would
# deliver the spec's ~50-500x online-add speedup. Deferred to T4+.
# - Determinism verified: tests/determinism.rs asserts bit-identical
# posteriors across RAYON_NUM_THREADS={1, 2, 4, 8}.
# - Send + Sync bounds added on Time, Drift<T>, Observer<T>, Factor, Schedule.
# - Rayon is opt-in via `--features rayon`. Default build is unchanged from T2.
+3 -5
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use trueskill_tt::{
BETA, Competitor, EventKind, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice,
drift::ConstantDrift, gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
BETA, Competitor, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice, drift::ConstantDrift,
gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
};
fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
@@ -33,10 +33,8 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
weights.push(vec![vec![1.0], vec![1.0]]);
}
let kinds = vec![EventKind::Ranked; composition.len()];
let mut time_slice = TimeSlice::new(1, P_DRAW);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds, &agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &agents);
criterion.bench_function("Batch::iteration", |b| {
b.iter(|| time_slice.iteration(0, &agents))
-116
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@@ -1,116 +0,0 @@
//! End-to-end History::converge benchmark.
//!
//! Workload shapes designed to expose rayon's within-slice color-group
//! parallelism. Events in the same color group are processed in parallel
//! via direct-write with disjoint index sets (no data races). Color groups
//! smaller than a threshold fall back to the sequential path to avoid
//! rayon overhead on small workloads.
//!
//! On Apple M5 Pro, the P-core count (6) is the optimal thread count.
//! The rayon thread pool is initialised to `min(P-cores, available)` to
//! avoid scheduling onto the slower E-cores.
//!
//! ## Results (Apple M5 Pro, 2026-04-24, after SmallVec revert)
//!
//! | Workload | Sequential | Parallel | Speedup |
//! |---------------------------------------------|------------:|-----------:|--------:|
//! | History::converge/500x100@10perslice | 4.03 ms | 4.24 ms | 1.0× |
//! | History::converge/2000x200@20perslice | 20.18 ms | 19.82 ms | 1.0× |
//! | History::converge/1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice| 11.88 ms | 9.10 ms | 1.3× |
//!
//! T3 acceptance gate: ≥2× speedup on at least one workload — NOT achieved after revert.
//! The SmallVec storage that enabled the 2× gate caused a +28% regression in the
//! sequential Batch::iteration benchmark and was reverted. Small workloads still fall
//! below the RAYON_THRESHOLD (64 events/color) and run sequentially with near-zero overhead.
use criterion::{BatchSize, Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{
ConstantDrift, ConvergenceOptions, Event, History, Member, NullObserver, Outcome, Team,
};
fn build_history_1v1(
n_events: usize,
n_competitors: usize,
events_per_slice: usize,
seed: u64,
) -> History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, String> {
let mut rng = seed;
let mut next = || {
rng = rng
.wrapping_mul(6364136223846793005)
.wrapping_add(1442695040888963407);
rng
};
let mut h = History::<i64, _, _, String>::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0))
.convergence(ConvergenceOptions {
max_iter: 30,
epsilon: 1e-6,
})
.build();
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(n_events);
for ev_i in 0..n_events {
let a = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
let mut b = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
while b == a {
b = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
}
events.push(Event {
time: (ev_i as i64 / events_per_slice as i64) + 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{a}"))]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{b}"))]),
],
outcome: Outcome::winner((next() % 2) as u32, 2),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h
}
fn bench_converge(c: &mut Criterion) {
// Two original task workloads (small per-slice event count;
// fall below RAYON_THRESHOLD so sequential path runs — near-zero overhead).
c.bench_function("History::converge/500x100@10perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(500, 100, 10, 42),
|mut h| {
h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
c.bench_function("History::converge/2000x200@20perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(2000, 200, 20, 42),
|mut h| {
h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
// Large single-slice workload: 5000 events, 50000 competitors.
// All events in one slice → color-0 gets ~4900 disjoint events, well above
// the 64-event RAYON_THRESHOLD. 30 iterations × 1 slice = 30 sweeps, each
// parallelised across P-core threads. Shows ≥2× speedup.
c.bench_function("History::converge/1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(5000, 50000, 5000, 42),
|mut h| {
h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
}
criterion_group!(benches, bench_converge);
criterion_main!(benches);
-38
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@@ -1,38 +0,0 @@
use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
fn bench_scored_history(c: &mut Criterion) {
c.bench_function("scored_history_60_events_30_iter", |bencher| {
bencher.iter(|| {
let mut h: History<i64, ConstantDrift, _, String> = History::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
.score_sigma(2.0)
.build();
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(60);
for i in 0..60 {
let a = format!("p{}", i % 20);
let b = format!("p{}", (i + 7) % 20);
let s_a = (i as f64 * 0.3).sin().abs() * 21.0;
let s_b = (i as f64 * 0.3).cos().abs() * 21.0;
events.push(Event {
time: 1 + (i / 6) as i64,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(a)]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([s_a, s_b]),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
});
});
}
criterion_group!(benches, bench_scored_history);
criterion_main!(benches);
-14
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@@ -1,14 +0,0 @@
Finished `bench` profile [optimized + debuginfo] target(s) in 0.02s
Running benches/scored.rs (target/release/deps/scored-988d1798504ff7d2)
Gnuplot not found, using plotters backend
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Warming up for 3.0000 s
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Collecting 100 samples in estimated 9.7418 s (10k iterations)
Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Analyzing
scored_history_60_events_30_iter
time: [959.36 µs 962.68 µs 966.13 µs]
Found 11 outliers among 100 measurements (11.00%)
1 (1.00%) low mild
5 (5.00%) high mild
5 (5.00%) high severe
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
@@ -578,7 +578,7 @@ All renames and the new public API land together. No half-renamed intermediate s
Each shipped independently after T3.
- `MarginFactor` → enables `Outcome::Scored`. **Done** (see `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md`).
- `MarginFactor` → enables `Outcome::Scored`.
- `Damped` and `Residual` schedules.
- `SynergyFactor`, `ScoreFactor` → same pattern when wanted.
-59
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@@ -1,59 +0,0 @@
//! Worked example: continuous-score outcomes via `Outcome::Scored`.
//!
//! Three players play a small round-robin where the score margin matters,
//! not just who won. We show how `score_sigma` controls how much weight
//! the engine places on the observed margin.
//!
//! Run with: `cargo run --example scored --release`
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
fn main() {
let mut h = History::builder()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
.score_sigma(2.0) // tune to data; smaller = trust margins more
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![
Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("alice")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("bob")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 9.0]),
},
Event {
time: 2,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("bob")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("carol")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 18.0]),
},
Event {
time: 3,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("alice")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("carol")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([21.0, 21.0]),
},
];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let report = h.converge().unwrap();
println!(
"converged={}, iterations={}, log_evidence={:.4}",
report.converged, report.iterations, report.log_evidence
);
for who in &["alice", "bob", "carol"] {
let s = h.current_skill(who).unwrap();
println!("{:>6}: mu={:>7.3} sigma={:.3}", who, s.mu(), s.sigma());
}
}
-158
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@@ -1,158 +0,0 @@
//! Greedy graph coloring for within-slice event independence.
//!
//! Events sharing no `Index` can be processed in parallel under async-EP
//! semantics. This module partitions a list of events into "colors" such
//! that events of the same color touch disjoint index sets.
//!
//! The algorithm is greedy: for each event in ingestion order, place it in
//! the lowest-numbered color whose existing members share no `Index`. If
//! no existing color accepts the event, open a new color.
//!
//! Complexity: O(n × c × m) where n is events, c is colors (small, ≤ 5 in
//! practice), and m is average team size.
use std::collections::HashSet;
use crate::Index;
/// Partition of event indices into color groups.
///
/// Each inner `Vec<usize>` holds the indices (into the original events
/// array) of events assigned to one color. Colors are iterated in ascending
/// order by convention.
#[derive(Clone, Debug, Default)]
pub(crate) struct ColorGroups {
pub(crate) groups: Vec<Vec<usize>>,
}
impl ColorGroups {
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn new() -> Self {
Self::default()
}
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn n_colors(&self) -> usize {
self.groups.len()
}
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn is_empty(&self) -> bool {
self.groups.is_empty()
}
/// Total event count across all colors.
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn total_events(&self) -> usize {
self.groups.iter().map(|g| g.len()).sum()
}
/// Contiguous index range for one color after events have been reordered
/// into color-contiguous positions by `TimeSlice::recompute_color_groups`.
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn color_range(&self, color_idx: usize) -> std::ops::Range<usize> {
let group = &self.groups[color_idx];
if group.is_empty() {
return 0..0;
}
let start = *group.first().unwrap();
let end = *group.last().unwrap() + 1;
start..end
}
}
/// Compute color groups greedily.
///
/// `index_set(ev_idx)` yields, for each event index, the iterator of
/// `Index` values that event touches. The returned `ColorGroups` has one
/// inner `Vec<usize>` per color, containing event indices in the order
/// they were assigned.
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn color_greedy<I, F>(n_events: usize, index_set: F) -> ColorGroups
where
F: Fn(usize) -> I,
I: IntoIterator<Item = Index>,
{
let mut groups: Vec<Vec<usize>> = Vec::new();
let mut members: Vec<HashSet<Index>> = Vec::new();
for ev_idx in 0..n_events {
let ev_members: HashSet<Index> = index_set(ev_idx).into_iter().collect();
// Find first color whose member-set is disjoint from this event's indices.
let chosen = members.iter().position(|m| m.is_disjoint(&ev_members));
let color_idx = match chosen {
Some(c) => c,
None => {
groups.push(Vec::new());
members.push(HashSet::new());
groups.len() - 1
}
};
groups[color_idx].push(ev_idx);
members[color_idx].extend(ev_members);
}
ColorGroups { groups }
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
fn idx(i: usize) -> Index {
Index::from(i)
}
#[test]
fn single_event_gets_one_color() {
let cg = color_greedy(1, |_| vec![idx(0), idx(1)]);
assert_eq!(cg.n_colors(), 1);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[0], vec![0]);
}
#[test]
fn disjoint_events_share_a_color() {
let cg = color_greedy(2, |i| match i {
0 => vec![idx(0), idx(1)],
1 => vec![idx(2), idx(3)],
_ => unreachable!(),
});
assert_eq!(cg.n_colors(), 1);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[0], vec![0, 1]);
}
#[test]
fn overlapping_events_need_separate_colors() {
let cg = color_greedy(2, |i| match i {
0 => vec![idx(0), idx(1)],
1 => vec![idx(1), idx(2)],
_ => unreachable!(),
});
assert_eq!(cg.n_colors(), 2);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[0], vec![0]);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[1], vec![1]);
}
#[test]
fn three_events_two_colors() {
// Event 0: {0, 1}; event 1: {2, 3}; event 2: {0, 2}.
// Greedy: ev0→c0, ev1→c0 (disjoint), ev2 overlaps both→c1.
let cg = color_greedy(3, |i| match i {
0 => vec![idx(0), idx(1)],
1 => vec![idx(2), idx(3)],
2 => vec![idx(0), idx(2)],
_ => unreachable!(),
});
assert_eq!(cg.n_colors(), 2);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[0], vec![0, 1]);
assert_eq!(cg.groups[1], vec![2]);
}
#[test]
fn total_events_counts_correctly() {
let cg = color_greedy(4, |_| vec![idx(0)]);
// All events touch index 0 → 4 distinct colors.
assert_eq!(cg.n_colors(), 4);
assert_eq!(cg.total_events(), 4);
}
}
-5
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@@ -10,8 +10,6 @@ pub enum InferenceError {
},
/// A probability value is outside `[0, 1]`.
InvalidProbability { value: f64 },
/// A scalar parameter is outside its valid range.
InvalidParameter { name: &'static str, value: f64 },
/// Convergence exceeded `max_iter` without falling below `epsilon`.
ConvergenceFailed {
last_step: (f64, f64),
@@ -34,9 +32,6 @@ impl fmt::Display for InferenceError {
Self::InvalidProbability { value } => {
write!(f, "probability must be in [0, 1]; got {value}")
}
Self::InvalidParameter { name, value } => {
write!(f, "{name} is invalid: {value}")
}
Self::ConvergenceFailed {
last_step,
iterations,
-6
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@@ -75,12 +75,6 @@ where
self
}
/// Set explicit per-team continuous scores; higher = better.
pub fn scores<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(mut self, scores: I) -> Self {
self.event.outcome = crate::Outcome::scores(scores);
self
}
/// Mark team `winner_idx` as winner; others tied for last.
pub fn winner(mut self, winner_idx: u32) -> Self {
self.event.outcome = Outcome::winner(winner_idx, self.event.teams.len() as u32);
-123
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@@ -1,123 +0,0 @@
use crate::{
N_INF,
factor::{Factor, VarId, VarStore},
gaussian::Gaussian,
pdf,
};
/// Gaussian observation factor on a diff variable.
///
/// Encodes the soft evidence `m_obs ~ N(diff, sigma²)`. The outgoing message
/// to `diff` is the constant `N(m_obs, sigma²)`, so this factor converges in a
/// single propagation: subsequent calls return a zero delta.
#[derive(Debug)]
pub struct MarginFactor {
pub diff: VarId,
pub m_obs: f64,
pub sigma: f64,
pub(crate) msg: Gaussian,
pub(crate) evidence_cached: Option<f64>,
}
impl MarginFactor {
pub fn new(diff: VarId, m_obs: f64, sigma: f64) -> Self {
debug_assert!(sigma > 0.0, "score sigma must be positive");
Self {
diff,
m_obs,
sigma,
msg: N_INF,
evidence_cached: None,
}
}
}
impl Factor for MarginFactor {
fn propagate(&mut self, vars: &mut VarStore) -> (f64, f64) {
let marginal = vars.get(self.diff);
let cavity = marginal / self.msg;
if self.evidence_cached.is_none() {
self.evidence_cached = Some(cavity_evidence(cavity, self.m_obs, self.sigma));
}
let new_msg = Gaussian::from_ms(self.m_obs, self.sigma);
let new_marginal = cavity * new_msg;
let old_msg = self.msg;
self.msg = new_msg;
vars.set(self.diff, new_marginal);
old_msg.delta(new_msg)
}
fn log_evidence(&self, _vars: &VarStore) -> f64 {
self.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0).ln()
}
}
fn cavity_evidence(cavity: Gaussian, m_obs: f64, sigma: f64) -> f64 {
let combined_sigma = (cavity.sigma().powi(2) + sigma.powi(2)).sqrt();
pdf(m_obs, cavity.mu(), combined_sigma)
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
#[test]
fn first_propagate_writes_tilted_marginal() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let result = vars.get(diff);
// pi = 1/36 + 1 ≈ 1.027778; tau = 0 + 5 = 5
// mu = 5 / 1.027778 ≈ 4.864865; sigma = 1/sqrt(1.027778) ≈ 0.986394
assert!((result.mu() - 4.864864864864865).abs() < 1e-12);
assert!((result.sigma() - 0.986393923832144).abs() < 1e-12);
}
#[test]
fn converges_in_one_step() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let (dmu, dsig) = f.propagate(&mut vars);
assert!(
dmu < 1e-12,
"expected ~0 delta on second propagate, got {dmu}"
);
assert!(dsig < 1e-12);
}
#[test]
fn evidence_cached_on_first_propagate() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
assert!(f.evidence_cached.is_none());
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let z = f.evidence_cached.unwrap();
// pdf(5, 0, sqrt(37)) ≈ 0.046783
assert!((z - 0.04678300292616668).abs() < 1e-10);
// Subsequent propagations don't change it.
f.propagate(&mut vars);
assert_eq!(f.evidence_cached.unwrap(), z);
}
#[test]
fn log_evidence_matches_cached_ln() {
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0);
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let logz = f.log_evidence(&vars);
assert!((logz - (-3.062235327364623)).abs() < 1e-10);
}
}
-20
View File
@@ -78,7 +78,6 @@ pub enum BuiltinFactor {
TeamSum(team_sum::TeamSumFactor),
RankDiff(rank_diff::RankDiffFactor),
Trunc(trunc::TruncFactor),
Margin(margin::MarginFactor),
}
impl Factor for BuiltinFactor {
@@ -87,20 +86,17 @@ impl Factor for BuiltinFactor {
Self::TeamSum(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::RankDiff(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Trunc(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.propagate(vars),
}
}
fn log_evidence(&self, vars: &VarStore) -> f64 {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.log_evidence(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.log_evidence(vars),
_ => 0.0,
}
}
}
pub mod margin;
pub mod rank_diff;
pub mod team_sum;
pub mod trunc;
@@ -149,20 +145,4 @@ mod tests {
assert_eq!(store.len(), 0);
assert_eq!(store.marginals.capacity(), cap);
}
#[test]
fn builtin_factor_dispatches_to_margin() {
use super::margin::MarginFactor;
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let diff = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut f = BuiltinFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(diff, 5.0, 1.0));
f.propagate(&mut vars);
let result = vars.get(diff);
assert!((result.mu() - 4.864864864864865).abs() < 1e-12);
let logz = f.log_evidence(&vars);
assert!((logz - (-3.062235327364623)).abs() < 1e-10);
}
}
+2 -2
View File
@@ -6,8 +6,8 @@
pub use crate::{
factor::{
BuiltinFactor, Factor, VarId, VarStore, margin::MarginFactor, rank_diff::RankDiffFactor,
team_sum::TeamSumFactor, trunc::TruncFactor,
BuiltinFactor, Factor, VarId, VarStore, rank_diff::RankDiffFactor, team_sum::TeamSumFactor,
trunc::TruncFactor,
},
schedule::{EpsilonOrMax, Schedule, ScheduleReport},
};
+22 -401
View File
@@ -5,63 +5,16 @@ use crate::{
arena::ScratchArena,
compute_margin,
drift::Drift,
factor::{VarId, margin::MarginFactor, trunc::TruncFactor},
factor::{Factor, trunc::TruncFactor},
gaussian::Gaussian,
rating::Rating,
time::Time,
tuple_gt, tuple_max,
};
/// Per-adjacent-pair link factor in the game's diff chain.
///
/// `Trunc` is used for `Outcome::Ranked` (rank-based truncation).
/// `Margin` is used for `Outcome::Scored` (Gaussian observation on the diff).
#[derive(Debug)]
pub(crate) enum DiffFactor {
Trunc(TruncFactor),
Margin(MarginFactor),
}
impl DiffFactor {
pub(crate) fn diff(&self) -> VarId {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.diff,
Self::Margin(f) => f.diff,
}
}
pub(crate) fn msg(&self) -> Gaussian {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.msg,
Self::Margin(f) => f.msg,
}
}
pub(crate) fn evidence(&self) -> f64 {
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0),
Self::Margin(f) => f.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0),
}
}
pub(crate) fn propagate(&mut self, vars: &mut crate::factor::VarStore) -> (f64, f64) {
use crate::factor::Factor;
match self {
Self::Trunc(f) => f.propagate(vars),
Self::Margin(f) => f.propagate(vars),
}
}
}
/// Per-game inference options.
///
/// `p_draw` and `convergence` apply to ranked outcomes (`Game::ranked`).
/// `score_sigma` applies only to scored outcomes (`Game::scored`); it controls
/// how much the engine trusts the observed score margin (smaller σ = more trust).
#[derive(Clone, Copy, Debug)]
pub struct GameOptions {
pub p_draw: f64,
pub score_sigma: f64,
pub convergence: crate::ConvergenceOptions,
}
@@ -69,7 +22,6 @@ impl Default for GameOptions {
fn default() -> Self {
Self {
p_draw: crate::P_DRAW,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: crate::ConvergenceOptions::default(),
}
}
@@ -112,26 +64,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> OwnedGame<T, D> {
}
}
pub(crate) fn new_scored(
teams: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>>,
scores: Vec<f64>,
weights: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
score_sigma: f64,
) -> Self {
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let g = Game::scored_with_arena(teams.clone(), &scores, &weights, score_sigma, &mut arena);
let likelihoods = g.likelihoods;
let evidence = g.evidence;
Self {
teams,
result: scores,
weights,
p_draw: 0.0,
likelihoods,
evidence,
}
}
pub fn posteriors(&self) -> Vec<Vec<Gaussian>> {
self.likelihoods
.iter()
@@ -200,39 +132,6 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
this
}
pub(crate) fn scored_with_arena(
teams: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>>,
scores: &'a [f64],
weights: &'a [Vec<f64>],
score_sigma: f64,
arena: &mut ScratchArena,
) -> Self {
debug_assert!(
scores.len() == teams.len(),
"scores must have the same length as teams"
);
debug_assert!(
weights
.iter()
.zip(teams.iter())
.all(|(w, t)| w.len() == t.len()),
"weights must have the same dimensions as teams"
);
debug_assert!(score_sigma > 0.0, "score_sigma must be positive");
let mut this = Self {
teams,
result: scores,
weights,
p_draw: 0.0,
likelihoods: Vec::new(),
evidence: 0.0,
};
this.likelihoods_scored(arena, score_sigma);
this
}
fn likelihoods(&mut self, arena: &mut ScratchArena) {
arena.reset();
@@ -256,9 +155,9 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
let n_diffs = n_teams.saturating_sub(1);
// One DiffFactor per adjacent sorted-team pair; each owns a diff VarId.
// links stays local (fresh state per game; Vec capacity is typically small).
let mut links: Vec<DiffFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
// One TruncFactor per adjacent sorted-team pair; each owns a diff VarId.
// trunc stays local (fresh state per game; Vec capacity is typically small).
let mut trunc: Vec<TruncFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
.map(|i| {
let tie = self.result[arena.sort_buf[i]] == self.result[arena.sort_buf[i + 1]];
let margin = if self.p_draw == 0.0 {
@@ -275,7 +174,7 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
compute_margin(self.p_draw, (a + b).sqrt())
};
let vid = arena.vars.alloc(N_INF);
DiffFactor::Trunc(TruncFactor::new(vid, margin, tie))
TruncFactor::new(vid, margin, tie)
})
.collect();
@@ -290,30 +189,30 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
step = (0.0_f64, 0.0_f64);
// Forward sweep: diffs 0 .. n_diffs-2 (all but the last).
for (e, lf) in links[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (e, tf) in trunc[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(tf.diff, raw * tf.msg);
let d = tf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_ll = pw - lf.msg();
let new_ll = pw - tf.msg;
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_lose[e + 1].delta(new_ll));
arena.lhood_lose[e + 1] = new_ll;
}
// Backward sweep: diffs n_diffs-1 .. 1 (reverse, all but the first).
for (rev_i, lf) in links[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
for (rev_i, tf) in trunc[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
let e = n_diffs - 1 - rev_i;
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(tf.diff, raw * tf.msg);
let d = tf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_lw = pl + lf.msg();
let new_lw = pl + tf.msg;
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_win[e].delta(new_lw));
arena.lhood_win[e] = new_lw;
}
@@ -325,20 +224,23 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
if n_diffs == 1 {
let raw = (arena.team_prior[0] * arena.lhood_lose[0])
- (arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1]);
arena.vars.set(links[0].diff(), raw * links[0].msg());
links[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
arena.vars.set(trunc[0].diff, raw * trunc[0].msg);
trunc[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
}
// Boundary updates: close the chain at both ends.
if n_diffs > 0 {
let pl1 = arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1];
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + links[0].msg();
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + trunc[0].msg;
let pw_last = arena.team_prior[n_teams - 2] * arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 2];
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - links[n_diffs - 1].msg();
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - trunc[n_diffs - 1].msg;
}
// Evidence = product of per-diff evidences (each cached on first propagation).
self.evidence = links.iter().map(|l| l.evidence()).product();
self.evidence = trunc
.iter()
.map(|t| t.evidence_cached.unwrap_or(1.0))
.product();
// Inverse permutation: inv_buf[orig_i] = sorted_i.
arena.inv_buf.resize(n_teams, 0);
@@ -370,120 +272,6 @@ impl<'a, T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'a, T, D> {
.collect::<Vec<_>>();
}
fn likelihoods_scored(&mut self, arena: &mut ScratchArena, score_sigma: f64) {
arena.reset();
let n_teams = self.teams.len();
arena.sort_buf.extend(0..n_teams);
arena.sort_buf.sort_by(|&i, &j| {
self.result[j]
.partial_cmp(&self.result[i])
.unwrap_or(Ordering::Equal)
});
arena.team_prior.extend(arena.sort_buf.iter().map(|&t| {
self.teams[t]
.iter()
.zip(self.weights[t].iter())
.fold(N00, |p, (player, &w)| p + (player.performance() * w))
}));
let n_diffs = n_teams.saturating_sub(1);
let mut links: Vec<DiffFactor> = (0..n_diffs)
.map(|i| {
// After descending-by-score sort, m_obs >= 0 for every adjacent pair.
let m_obs = self.result[arena.sort_buf[i]] - self.result[arena.sort_buf[i + 1]];
let vid = arena.vars.alloc(N_INF);
DiffFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(vid, m_obs, score_sigma))
})
.collect();
arena.lhood_lose.resize(n_teams, N_INF);
arena.lhood_win.resize(n_teams, N_INF);
let mut step = (f64::INFINITY, f64::INFINITY);
let mut iter = 0;
while tuple_gt(step, 1e-6) && iter < 10 {
step = (0.0_f64, 0.0_f64);
for (e, lf) in links[..n_diffs.saturating_sub(1)].iter_mut().enumerate() {
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_ll = pw - lf.msg();
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_lose[e + 1].delta(new_ll));
arena.lhood_lose[e + 1] = new_ll;
}
for (rev_i, lf) in links[1..].iter_mut().rev().enumerate() {
let e = n_diffs - 1 - rev_i;
let pw = arena.team_prior[e] * arena.lhood_lose[e];
let pl = arena.team_prior[e + 1] * arena.lhood_win[e + 1];
let raw = pw - pl;
arena.vars.set(lf.diff(), raw * lf.msg());
let d = lf.propagate(&mut arena.vars);
step = tuple_max(step, d);
let new_lw = pl + lf.msg();
step = tuple_max(step, arena.lhood_win[e].delta(new_lw));
arena.lhood_win[e] = new_lw;
}
iter += 1;
}
if n_diffs == 1 {
let raw = (arena.team_prior[0] * arena.lhood_lose[0])
- (arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1]);
arena.vars.set(links[0].diff(), raw * links[0].msg());
links[0].propagate(&mut arena.vars);
}
if n_diffs > 0 {
let pl1 = arena.team_prior[1] * arena.lhood_win[1];
arena.lhood_win[0] = pl1 + links[0].msg();
let pw_last = arena.team_prior[n_teams - 2] * arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 2];
arena.lhood_lose[n_teams - 1] = pw_last - links[n_diffs - 1].msg();
}
self.evidence = links.iter().map(|l| l.evidence()).product();
arena.inv_buf.resize(n_teams, 0);
for (si, &orig_i) in arena.sort_buf.iter().enumerate() {
arena.inv_buf[orig_i] = si;
}
self.likelihoods = self
.teams
.iter()
.zip(self.weights.iter())
.enumerate()
.map(|(orig_i, (players, weights))| {
let si = arena.inv_buf[orig_i];
let m = arena.lhood_win[si] * arena.lhood_lose[si];
let performance = players
.iter()
.zip(weights.iter())
.fold(N00, |p, (player, &w)| p + (player.performance() * w));
players
.iter()
.zip(weights.iter())
.map(|(player, &w)| {
((m - performance.exclude(player.performance() * w)) * (1.0 / w))
.forget(player.beta.powi(2))
})
.collect::<Vec<_>>()
})
.collect::<Vec<_>>();
}
pub fn posteriors(&self) -> Vec<Vec<Gaussian>> {
self.likelihoods
.iter()
@@ -521,13 +309,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'_, T, D> {
});
}
let ranks = outcome
.as_ranks()
.ok_or(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "Game::ranked requires Outcome::Ranked",
expected: 0,
got: 0,
})?;
let ranks = outcome.as_ranks();
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
let result: Vec<f64> = ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect();
let teams_owned: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>> = teams.iter().map(|t| t.to_vec()).collect();
@@ -536,42 +318,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Game<'_, T, D> {
Ok(OwnedGame::new(teams_owned, result, weights, options.p_draw))
}
pub fn scored(
teams: &[&[Rating<T, D>]],
outcome: crate::Outcome,
options: &GameOptions,
) -> Result<OwnedGame<T, D>, crate::InferenceError> {
if options.score_sigma <= 0.0 || options.score_sigma.is_nan() {
return Err(crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
name: "score_sigma",
value: options.score_sigma,
});
}
if outcome.team_count() != teams.len() {
return Err(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "outcome scores vs teams",
expected: teams.len(),
got: outcome.team_count(),
});
}
let scores = outcome
.as_scores()
.ok_or(crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "Game::scored requires Outcome::Scored",
expected: 0,
got: 0,
})?
.to_vec();
let teams_owned: Vec<Vec<Rating<T, D>>> = teams.iter().map(|t| t.to_vec()).collect();
let weights: Vec<Vec<f64>> = teams.iter().map(|t| vec![1.0; t.len()]).collect();
Ok(OwnedGame::new_scored(
teams_owned,
scores,
weights,
options.score_sigma,
))
}
pub fn one_v_one(
a: &Rating<T, D>,
b: &Rating<T, D>,
@@ -1059,131 +805,6 @@ mod tests {
assert_ulps_eq!(p[0][0], p[1][0], epsilon = 1e-6);
}
#[test]
fn diff_factor_dispatch_trunc_and_margin() {
use super::DiffFactor;
use crate::factor::{VarStore, margin::MarginFactor, trunc::TruncFactor};
let mut vars = VarStore::new();
let dt = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let dm = vars.alloc(Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 6.0));
let mut t = DiffFactor::Trunc(TruncFactor::new(dt, 0.0, false));
let mut m = DiffFactor::Margin(MarginFactor::new(dm, 5.0, 1.0));
let _ = t.propagate(&mut vars);
let _ = m.propagate(&mut vars);
// Smoke: both diffs got written; their msgs are non-N_INF.
assert!(t.msg().pi() > 0.0);
assert!(m.msg().pi() > 0.0);
assert_eq!(t.diff(), dt);
assert_eq!(m.diff(), dm);
}
#[test]
fn scored_path_sharper_when_margin_is_large() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let teams = vec![vec![prior], vec![prior]];
let result = vec![10.0, 0.0]; // a beat b by 10
let weights = [vec![1.0], vec![1.0]];
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let g = Game::scored_with_arena(
teams, &result, &weights, 1.0, // score_sigma
&mut arena,
);
let p = g.posteriors();
let a = p[0][0];
let b = p[1][0];
assert!(
a.mu() > b.mu(),
"expected team a posterior mu > team b; got {} vs {}",
a.mu(),
b.mu()
);
// Tighter score_sigma should produce a stronger update.
let mut arena2 = ScratchArena::new();
let g_tight = Game::scored_with_arena(
vec![vec![prior], vec![prior]],
&result,
&weights,
0.1, // tighter score_sigma
&mut arena2,
);
let p_tight = g_tight.posteriors();
let a_tight = p_tight[0][0];
assert!(
a_tight.mu() > a.mu(),
"expected tighter sigma to push posterior further; {} vs {}",
a_tight.mu(),
a.mu()
);
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_public_ctor() {
use crate::Outcome;
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let opts = GameOptions {
score_sigma: 1.0,
..GameOptions::default()
};
let g = Game::scored(&[&[prior], &[prior]], Outcome::scores([8.0, 2.0]), &opts).unwrap();
let p = g.posteriors();
assert!(p[0][0].mu() > p[1][0].mu());
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_rejects_ranked_outcome() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let err = Game::scored(
&[&[prior], &[prior]],
crate::Outcome::winner(0, 2),
&GameOptions::default(),
)
.unwrap_err();
assert!(matches!(err, crate::InferenceError::MismatchedShape { .. }));
}
#[test]
fn game_scored_rejects_zero_score_sigma() {
let prior = R::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
);
let opts = GameOptions {
score_sigma: 0.0,
..GameOptions::default()
};
let err = Game::scored(
&[&[prior], &[prior]],
crate::Outcome::scores([1.0, 0.0]),
&opts,
)
.unwrap_err();
assert!(matches!(
err,
crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
name: "score_sigma",
..
}
));
}
#[test]
fn test_2vs2_weighted() {
let t_a = vec![
+23 -109
View File
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ use crate::{
sort_time,
storage::CompetitorStore,
time::Time,
time_slice::{self, EventKind, TimeSlice},
time_slice::{self, TimeSlice},
tuple_gt, tuple_max,
};
@@ -30,7 +30,6 @@ pub struct HistoryBuilder<
drift: D,
p_draw: f64,
online: bool,
score_sigma: f64,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
observer: O,
_time: PhantomData<T>,
@@ -61,7 +60,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
beta: self.beta,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer: self.observer,
_time: self._time,
@@ -79,15 +77,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
self
}
pub fn score_sigma(mut self, score_sigma: f64) -> Self {
assert!(
score_sigma > 0.0,
"score_sigma must be positive (got {score_sigma})"
);
self.score_sigma = score_sigma;
self
}
pub fn convergence(mut self, opts: ConvergenceOptions) -> Self {
self.convergence = opts;
self
@@ -101,7 +90,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
drift: self.drift,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer,
_time: self._time,
@@ -121,7 +109,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
drift: self.drift,
p_draw: self.p_draw,
online: self.online,
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
convergence: self.convergence,
observer: self.observer,
}
@@ -137,7 +124,6 @@ impl Default for HistoryBuilder<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str>
drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
p_draw: P_DRAW,
online: false,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
observer: NullObserver,
_time: PhantomData,
@@ -162,7 +148,6 @@ pub struct History<
drift: D,
p_draw: f64,
online: bool,
score_sigma: f64,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
observer: O,
}
@@ -189,7 +174,6 @@ impl<K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, K> {
drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
p_draw: P_DRAW,
online: false,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
observer: NullObserver,
_time: PhantomData,
@@ -278,45 +262,17 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
/// Note: `key(idx)` is O(n) per lookup; this method is therefore O(n²)
/// in the number of competitors. Acceptable for T2; T3 may optimize.
pub fn learning_curves(&self) -> HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> {
#[cfg(feature = "rayon")]
{
use rayon::prelude::*;
let per_slice: Vec<Vec<(Index, T, Gaussian)>> = self
.time_slices
.par_iter()
.map(|ts| {
ts.skills
.iter()
.map(|(idx, sk)| (idx, ts.time, sk.posterior()))
.collect()
})
.collect();
let mut data: HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> = HashMap::new();
for slice_contrib in per_slice {
for (idx, t, g) in slice_contrib {
if let Some(key) = self.keys.key(idx).cloned() {
data.entry(key).or_default().push((t, g));
}
let mut data: HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> = HashMap::new();
for slice in &self.time_slices {
for (idx, skill) in slice.skills.iter() {
if let Some(key) = self.keys.key(idx).cloned() {
data.entry(key)
.or_default()
.push((slice.time, skill.posterior()));
}
}
data
}
#[cfg(not(feature = "rayon"))]
{
let mut data: HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> = HashMap::new();
for slice in &self.time_slices {
for (idx, skill) in slice.skills.iter() {
if let Some(key) = self.keys.key(idx).cloned() {
data.entry(key)
.or_default()
.push((slice.time, skill.posterior()));
}
}
}
data
}
data
}
/// Skill estimate at the latest time slice the competitor appears in.
@@ -348,23 +304,10 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
}
pub(crate) fn log_evidence_internal(&mut self, forward: bool, targets: &[Index]) -> f64 {
#[cfg(feature = "rayon")]
{
use rayon::prelude::*;
let per_slice: Vec<f64> = self
.time_slices
.par_iter()
.map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(self.online, targets, forward, &self.agents))
.collect();
per_slice.into_iter().sum()
}
#[cfg(not(feature = "rayon"))]
{
self.time_slices
.iter()
.map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(self.online, targets, forward, &self.agents))
.sum()
}
self.time_slices
.iter()
.map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(self.online, targets, forward, &self.agents))
.sum()
}
/// Total log-evidence across the history.
@@ -466,7 +409,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
results: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
times: Vec<T>,
weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>,
kinds: Vec<EventKind>,
mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>>,
) -> Result<(), InferenceError> {
if !results.is_empty() && results.len() != composition.len() {
@@ -490,13 +432,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
got: weights.len(),
});
}
if kinds.len() != composition.len() {
return Err(InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "kinds",
expected: composition.len(),
got: kinds.len(),
});
}
competitor::clean(self.agents.values_mut(), true);
@@ -581,11 +516,9 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
(i..j).map(|e| weights[o[e]].clone()).collect::<Vec<_>>()
};
let kinds_chunk: Vec<EventKind> = (i..j).map(|e| kinds[o[e]]).collect();
if self.time_slices.len() > k && self.time_slices[k].time == t {
let time_slice = &mut self.time_slices[k];
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds_chunk, &self.agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &self.agents);
for agent_idx in time_slice.skills.keys() {
let agent = self.agents.get_mut(agent_idx).unwrap();
@@ -595,7 +528,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
}
} else {
let mut time_slice = TimeSlice::new(t, self.p_draw);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds_chunk, &self.agents);
time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &self.agents);
self.time_slices.insert(k, time_slice);
@@ -652,7 +585,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![time],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked],
HashMap::new(),
)
}
@@ -669,7 +601,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
vec![vec![0.0, 0.0]],
vec![time],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked],
HashMap::new(),
)
}
@@ -694,15 +625,15 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
let mut results: Vec<Vec<f64>> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut times: Vec<T> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut kinds: Vec<EventKind> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
let mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>> = HashMap::new();
for ev in events {
if ev.outcome.team_count() != ev.teams.len() {
let ranks = ev.outcome.as_ranks();
if ranks.len() != ev.teams.len() {
return Err(InferenceError::MismatchedShape {
kind: "outcome vs teams",
kind: "outcome ranks vs teams",
expected: ev.teams.len(),
got: ev.outcome.team_count(),
got: ranks.len(),
});
}
@@ -726,24 +657,13 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
composition.push(event_comp);
weights.push(event_weights);
let event_result: Vec<f64> = match &ev.outcome {
crate::Outcome::Ranked(ranks) => {
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
kinds.push(EventKind::Ranked);
ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect()
}
crate::Outcome::Scored(scores) => {
kinds.push(EventKind::Scored {
score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
});
scores.to_vec()
}
};
results.push(event_result);
let max_rank = ranks.iter().copied().max().unwrap_or(0) as f64;
let inverted: Vec<f64> = ranks.iter().map(|&r| max_rank - r as f64).collect();
results.push(inverted);
times.push(ev.time);
}
self.add_events_with_prior(composition, results, times, weights, kinds, priors)
self.add_events_with_prior(composition, results, times, weights, priors)
}
}
@@ -1705,10 +1625,4 @@ mod tests {
assert!(report.iterations < 30);
assert!(report.final_step.0 <= 1e-6);
}
#[test]
#[should_panic(expected = "score_sigma must be positive")]
fn history_builder_rejects_zero_score_sigma() {
let _ = History::builder().score_sigma(0.0).build();
}
}
+1 -2
View File
@@ -8,8 +8,7 @@ mod approx;
pub(crate) mod arena;
mod time;
mod time_slice;
pub use time_slice::{EventKind, TimeSlice};
mod color_group;
pub use time_slice::TimeSlice;
mod competitor;
mod convergence;
pub mod drift;
+11 -49
View File
@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
//! Outcome of a match.
//!
//! `Ranked(ranks)` for ordinal results; `Scored(scores)` for continuous
//! per-team scores (engages `MarginFactor` in the engine).
//! In T2, only `Ranked` is supported; `Scored` will be added together with
//! `MarginFactor` in T4. The enum is `#[non_exhaustive]` so adding `Scored`
//! is non-breaking for downstream `match` expressions.
use smallvec::SmallVec;
@@ -9,19 +10,14 @@ use smallvec::SmallVec;
///
/// `Ranked(ranks)`: lower rank = better. Equal ranks mean a tie between those
/// teams. `ranks.len()` must equal the number of teams in the event.
///
/// `Scored(scores)`: higher score = better. Adjacent (sorted) pairs feed
/// observed margins to `MarginFactor`. `scores.len()` must equal the number
/// of teams in the event.
#[derive(Clone, Debug, PartialEq)]
#[non_exhaustive]
pub enum Outcome {
Ranked(SmallVec<[u32; 4]>),
Scored(SmallVec<[f64; 4]>),
}
impl Outcome {
/// `n`-team outcome where team `winner` won and everyone else tied for last.
/// `N`-team outcome where team `winner` won and everyone else tied for last.
///
/// Panics if `winner >= n`.
pub fn winner(winner: u32, n: u32) -> Self {
@@ -40,29 +36,16 @@ impl Outcome {
Self::Ranked(ranks.into_iter().collect())
}
/// Explicit per-team continuous scores; higher = better.
pub fn scores<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(scores: I) -> Self {
Self::Scored(scores.into_iter().collect())
}
pub fn team_count(&self) -> usize {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => r.len(),
Self::Scored(s) => s.len(),
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_ranks(&self) -> Option<&[u32]> {
#[allow(dead_code)]
pub(crate) fn as_ranks(&self) -> &[u32] {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => Some(r),
Self::Scored(_) => None,
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_scores(&self) -> Option<&[f64]> {
match self {
Self::Scored(s) => Some(s),
Self::Ranked(_) => None,
Self::Ranked(r) => r,
}
}
}
@@ -74,26 +57,26 @@ mod tests {
#[test]
fn winner_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[0u32, 1]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
}
#[test]
fn winner_three_teams_second_wins() {
let o = Outcome::winner(1, 3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[1u32, 0, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[1u32, 0, 1]);
}
#[test]
fn draw_three_teams() {
let o = Outcome::draw(3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 0, 0][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[0u32, 0, 0]);
}
#[test]
fn ranking_from_iter() {
let o = Outcome::ranking([2, 0, 1]);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[2u32, 0, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), &[2u32, 0, 1]);
}
#[test]
@@ -101,25 +84,4 @@ mod tests {
fn winner_out_of_range_panics() {
let _ = Outcome::winner(2, 2);
}
#[test]
fn scored_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_scores(), Some(&[10.0, 4.0][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), None);
}
#[test]
fn scored_team_count_matches_input() {
let o = Outcome::scores([3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 4);
}
#[test]
fn ranked_as_scores_returns_none() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert!(o.as_scores().is_none());
assert!(o.as_ranks().is_some());
}
}
+41 -289
View File
@@ -7,7 +7,6 @@ use std::collections::HashMap;
use crate::{
Index, N_INF,
arena::ScratchArena,
color_group::ColorGroups,
drift::Drift,
game::Game,
gaussian::Gaussian,
@@ -44,13 +43,6 @@ impl Default for Skill {
}
}
#[derive(Debug, Clone, Copy)]
#[non_exhaustive]
pub enum EventKind {
Ranked,
Scored { score_sigma: f64 },
}
#[derive(Debug)]
struct Item {
agent: Index,
@@ -89,16 +81,9 @@ pub(crate) struct Event {
teams: Vec<Team>,
evidence: f64,
weights: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
kind: EventKind,
}
impl Event {
pub(crate) fn iter_agents(&self) -> impl Iterator<Item = Index> + '_ {
self.teams
.iter()
.flat_map(|t| t.items.iter().map(|it| it.agent))
}
fn outputs(&self) -> Vec<f64> {
self.teams
.iter()
@@ -123,40 +108,6 @@ impl Event {
})
.collect::<Vec<_>>()
}
/// Direct in-loop update: mutates self and `skills` inline with no
/// intermediate allocation. Used by both the sequential sweep path and,
/// via unsafe, by the parallel rayon path for events in the same color
/// group (which have disjoint agent sets — see `sweep_color_groups`).
fn iteration_direct<T: Time, D: Drift<T>>(
&mut self,
skills: &mut SkillStore,
agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
p_draw: f64,
arena: &mut ScratchArena,
) {
let teams = self.within_priors(false, false, skills, agents);
let result = self.outputs();
let g = match self.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => {
Game::ranked_with_arena(teams, &result, &self.weights, p_draw, arena)
}
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => {
Game::scored_with_arena(teams, &result, &self.weights, score_sigma, arena)
}
};
for (t, team) in self.teams.iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (i, item) in team.items.iter_mut().enumerate() {
let old_likelihood = skills.get(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood;
let new_likelihood = (old_likelihood / item.likelihood) * g.likelihoods[t][i];
skills.get_mut(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood = new_likelihood;
item.likelihood = g.likelihoods[t][i];
}
}
self.evidence = g.evidence;
}
}
#[derive(Debug)]
@@ -166,7 +117,6 @@ pub struct TimeSlice<T: Time = i64> {
pub(crate) time: T,
p_draw: f64,
arena: ScratchArena,
pub(crate) color_groups: ColorGroups,
}
impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
@@ -177,50 +127,14 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
time,
p_draw,
arena: ScratchArena::new(),
color_groups: ColorGroups::new(),
}
}
/// Recompute the color-group partition and reorder `self.events` into
/// color-contiguous ranges. After this call, `self.color_groups.groups[c]`
/// contains a contiguous ascending range of indices in `self.events`.
pub(crate) fn recompute_color_groups(&mut self) {
use crate::color_group::color_greedy;
let n = self.events.len();
if n == 0 {
self.color_groups = ColorGroups::new();
return;
}
let cg = color_greedy(n, |ev_idx| {
self.events[ev_idx].iter_agents().collect::<Vec<_>>()
});
let mut reordered: Vec<Event> = Vec::with_capacity(n);
let mut new_groups: Vec<Vec<usize>> = Vec::with_capacity(cg.groups.len());
let mut taken: Vec<Option<Event>> = self.events.drain(..).map(Some).collect();
for group in &cg.groups {
let mut new_indices: Vec<usize> = Vec::with_capacity(group.len());
for &old_idx in group {
let ev = taken[old_idx].take().expect("event already taken");
new_indices.push(reordered.len());
reordered.push(ev);
}
new_groups.push(new_indices);
}
self.events = reordered;
self.color_groups = ColorGroups { groups: new_groups };
}
pub fn add_events<D: Drift<T>>(
&mut self,
composition: Vec<Vec<Vec<Index>>>,
results: Vec<Vec<f64>>,
weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>,
kinds: Vec<EventKind>,
agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
) {
let mut unique = Vec::with_capacity(10);
@@ -290,7 +204,6 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
teams,
evidence: 0.0,
weights,
kind: kinds[e],
}
});
@@ -299,7 +212,6 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
self.events.extend(events);
self.iteration(from, agents);
self.recompute_color_groups();
}
pub(crate) fn posteriors(&self) -> HashMap<Index, Gaussian> {
@@ -310,124 +222,28 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
}
pub fn iteration<D: Drift<T>>(&mut self, from: usize, agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>) {
if from > 0 || self.color_groups.is_empty() {
// Initial pass (add_events) or no color groups yet: simple sequential sweep.
for event in self.events.iter_mut().skip(from) {
let teams = event.within_priors(false, false, &self.skills, agents);
let result = event.outputs();
for event in self.events.iter_mut().skip(from) {
let teams = event.within_priors(false, false, &self.skills, agents);
let result = event.outputs();
let g = match event.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => Game::ranked_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut self.arena,
),
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => Game::scored_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
score_sigma,
&mut self.arena,
),
};
let g = Game::ranked_with_arena(
teams,
&result,
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut self.arena,
);
for (t, team) in event.teams.iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (i, item) in team.items.iter_mut().enumerate() {
let old_likelihood = self.skills.get(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood;
let new_likelihood =
(old_likelihood / item.likelihood) * g.likelihoods[t][i];
self.skills.get_mut(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood = new_likelihood;
item.likelihood = g.likelihoods[t][i];
}
}
event.evidence = g.evidence;
}
} else {
self.sweep_color_groups(agents);
}
}
/// Full event sweep using the color-group partition. Colors are processed
/// sequentially; within each color the inner loop is parallel under rayon.
///
/// Events within each color group touch disjoint agent sets (guaranteed by
/// the greedy coloring). This lets each rayon thread write directly to its
/// events' skill likelihoods without a deferred-apply step, matching the
/// sequential path's allocation profile. The unsafe block is sound because:
/// 1. `self.events[range]` and `self.skills` are separate fields → disjoint.
/// 2. Events in the same color group access disjoint `Index` values in
/// `self.skills`, so concurrent writes land on different memory locations.
/// 3. Each event only writes to its own items' likelihoods (no sharing).
#[cfg(feature = "rayon")]
fn sweep_color_groups<D: Drift<T>>(&mut self, agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>) {
use rayon::prelude::*;
thread_local! {
static ARENA: std::cell::RefCell<ScratchArena> =
std::cell::RefCell::new(ScratchArena::new());
}
// Minimum color-group size to justify rayon's task-spawn overhead.
// Below this threshold, process events sequentially to avoid regression
// on small per-slice workloads.
const RAYON_THRESHOLD: usize = 64;
for color_idx in 0..self.color_groups.groups.len() {
let group_len = self.color_groups.groups[color_idx].len();
if group_len == 0 {
continue;
}
let range = self.color_groups.color_range(color_idx);
let p_draw = self.p_draw;
if group_len >= RAYON_THRESHOLD {
// Obtain a raw pointer from the unique `&mut self.skills` reference.
// Casting back to `&mut` inside the closure is sound because:
// 1. The pointer originates from a `&mut` — no aliasing with shared refs.
// 2. Events in the same color group touch disjoint `Index` slots in the
// underlying Vec, so concurrent writes from different threads land on
// different memory locations — no data race.
// 3. `self.events[range]` and `self.skills` are separate struct fields,
// so the borrow splits cleanly.
let skills_addr: usize = (&mut self.skills as *mut SkillStore) as usize;
self.events[range].par_iter_mut().for_each(move |ev| {
// SAFETY: see above.
let skills: &mut SkillStore = unsafe { &mut *(skills_addr as *mut SkillStore) };
ARENA.with(|cell| {
let mut arena = cell.borrow_mut();
arena.reset();
ev.iteration_direct(skills, agents, p_draw, &mut arena);
});
});
} else {
for ev in &mut self.events[range] {
ev.iteration_direct(&mut self.skills, agents, p_draw, &mut self.arena);
for (t, team) in event.teams.iter_mut().enumerate() {
for (i, item) in team.items.iter_mut().enumerate() {
let old_likelihood = self.skills.get(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood;
let new_likelihood = (old_likelihood / item.likelihood) * g.likelihoods[t][i];
self.skills.get_mut(item.agent).unwrap().likelihood = new_likelihood;
item.likelihood = g.likelihoods[t][i];
}
}
}
}
/// Full event sweep using the color-group partition, sequential direct-write path.
/// Events within each color group are updated inline — no EventOutput allocation —
/// matching the T2 performance profile.
#[cfg(not(feature = "rayon"))]
fn sweep_color_groups<D: Drift<T>>(&mut self, agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>) {
for color_idx in 0..self.color_groups.groups.len() {
if self.color_groups.groups[color_idx].is_empty() {
continue;
}
let range = self.color_groups.color_range(color_idx);
// Borrow self.events as a mutable slice for this color range.
// self.skills and self.arena are separate fields — disjoint borrows are
// allowed within a single method body.
let p_draw = self.p_draw;
for ev in &mut self.events[range] {
ev.iteration_direct(&mut self.skills, agents, p_draw, &mut self.arena);
}
event.evidence = g.evidence;
}
}
@@ -500,28 +316,21 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
// log_evidence is infrequent; a local arena avoids needing &mut self.
let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
let run_event = |event: &Event, arena: &mut ScratchArena| -> f64 {
let teams = event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents);
let result = event.outputs();
match event.kind {
EventKind::Ranked => {
Game::ranked_with_arena(teams, &result, &event.weights, self.p_draw, arena)
.evidence
.ln()
}
EventKind::Scored { score_sigma } => {
Game::scored_with_arena(teams, &result, &event.weights, score_sigma, arena)
.evidence
.ln()
}
}
};
if targets.is_empty() {
if online || forward {
self.events
.iter()
.map(|event| run_event(event, &mut arena))
.map(|event| {
Game::ranked_with_arena(
event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents),
&event.outputs(),
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut arena,
)
.evidence
.ln()
})
.sum()
} else {
self.events.iter().map(|event| event.evidence.ln()).sum()
@@ -529,14 +338,25 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
} else if online || forward {
self.events
.iter()
.filter(|event| {
.enumerate()
.filter(|(_, event)| {
event
.teams
.iter()
.flat_map(|team| &team.items)
.any(|item| targets.contains(&item.agent))
})
.map(|event| run_event(event, &mut arena))
.map(|(_, event)| {
Game::ranked_with_arena(
event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents),
&event.outputs(),
&event.weights,
self.p_draw,
&mut arena,
)
.evidence
.ln()
})
.sum()
} else {
self.events
@@ -631,7 +451,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -708,7 +527,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -788,7 +606,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -820,7 +637,6 @@ mod tests {
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![0.0, 1.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
@@ -846,68 +662,4 @@ mod tests {
epsilon = 1e-6
);
}
#[test]
fn time_slice_color_groups_reorders_events() {
// ev0: [a, b]; ev1: [c, d]; ev2: [a, c]
// Greedy coloring: ev0→c0, ev1→c0 (disjoint), ev2→c1 (overlaps both).
// After recompute_color_groups, physical order is [ev0, ev1, ev2]
// and groups == [[0, 1], [2]].
let mut index_map = KeyTable::new();
let a = index_map.get_or_create("a");
let b = index_map.get_or_create("b");
let c = index_map.get_or_create("c");
let d = index_map.get_or_create("d");
let mut agents: CompetitorStore<i64, ConstantDrift> = CompetitorStore::new();
for agent in [a, b, c, d] {
agents.insert(
agent,
Competitor {
rating: Rating::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0),
25.0 / 6.0,
ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0),
),
..Default::default()
},
);
}
let mut ts = TimeSlice::new(0i64, 0.0);
ts.add_events(
vec![
vec![vec![a], vec![b]],
vec![vec![c], vec![d]],
vec![vec![a], vec![c]],
],
vec![vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![1.0, 0.0], vec![1.0, 0.0]],
vec![],
vec![EventKind::Ranked; 3],
&agents,
);
assert_eq!(ts.color_groups.n_colors(), 2);
assert_eq!(ts.color_groups.groups[0], vec![0, 1]);
assert_eq!(ts.color_groups.groups[1], vec![2]);
assert_eq!(ts.color_groups.color_range(0), 0..2);
assert_eq!(ts.color_groups.color_range(1), 2..3);
// Events at positions 0 and 1 (color 0) must be disjoint — verify by
// checking that the agent sets of self.events[0] and self.events[1] do
// not include the agent at self.events[2].
let agents_in_ev2: Vec<Index> = ts.events[2].iter_agents().collect();
let agents_in_ev0: Vec<Index> = ts.events[0].iter_agents().collect();
let agents_in_ev1: Vec<Index> = ts.events[1].iter_agents().collect();
// ev0 and ev1 must be disjoint from each other (color-0 invariant).
assert!(agents_in_ev0.iter().all(|ag| !agents_in_ev1.contains(ag)));
// ev2 must share an agent with ev0 or ev1 (it needed its own color).
let ev2_overlaps_ev0 = agents_in_ev2.iter().any(|ag| agents_in_ev0.contains(ag));
let ev2_overlaps_ev1 = agents_in_ev2.iter().any(|ag| agents_in_ev1.contains(ag));
assert!(ev2_overlaps_ev0 || ev2_overlaps_ev1);
}
}
-23
View File
@@ -223,26 +223,3 @@ fn predict_outcome_two_teams_sums_to_one() {
assert!((p[0] + p[1] - 1.0).abs() < 1e-9);
assert!(p[0] > p[1]);
}
#[test]
fn fluent_event_builder_scores() {
use trueskill_tt::ConstantDrift;
let mut h = History::builder()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.build();
h.event(1)
.team(["alice"])
.team(["bob"])
.scores([12.0, 4.0])
.commit()
.unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
let a = h.current_skill(&"alice").unwrap();
let b = h.current_skill(&"bob").unwrap();
assert!(a.mu() > b.mu());
}
-100
View File
@@ -1,100 +0,0 @@
//! Determinism tests: identical posteriors across RAYON_NUM_THREADS
//! values. Only compiled with the `rayon` feature.
#![cfg(feature = "rayon")]
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, ConvergenceOptions, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
/// Build a deterministic workload using a simple LCG (no external rand crate).
fn build_and_converge(seed: u64) -> Vec<(i64, trueskill_tt::Gaussian)> {
let mut h = History::<i64, _, _, String>::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0))
.convergence(ConvergenceOptions {
max_iter: 30,
epsilon: 1e-6,
})
.build();
// LCG for deterministic pseudo-random ints.
let mut rng = seed;
let mut next = || {
rng = rng
.wrapping_mul(6364136223846793005)
.wrapping_add(1442695040888963407);
rng
};
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(200);
for ev_i in 0..200 {
let a = (next() % 40) as usize;
let mut b = (next() % 40) as usize;
while b == a {
b = (next() % 40) as usize;
}
// ~10 events per slice so color groups have material parallelism.
events.push(Event {
time: (ev_i as i64 / 10) + 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{a}"))]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{b}"))]),
],
outcome: Outcome::winner((next() % 2) as u32, 2),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
// Sample one competitor's curve for the comparison.
h.learning_curve("p0")
}
#[test]
fn posteriors_identical_across_thread_counts() {
let sizes = [1usize, 2, 4, 8];
let mut results: Vec<Vec<(i64, trueskill_tt::Gaussian)>> = Vec::new();
for &n in &sizes {
let pool = rayon::ThreadPoolBuilder::new()
.num_threads(n)
.build()
.expect("rayon pool build");
let curve = pool.install(|| build_and_converge(42));
results.push(curve);
}
let reference = &results[0];
for (i, curve) in results.iter().enumerate().skip(1) {
assert_eq!(
curve.len(),
reference.len(),
"curve length differs at {n} threads",
n = sizes[i],
);
for (j, (&(t_ref, g_ref), &(t, g))) in reference.iter().zip(curve.iter()).enumerate() {
assert_eq!(
t_ref,
t,
"time point {j} differs at {n} threads: ref={t_ref} vs got={t}",
n = sizes[i],
);
assert_eq!(
g_ref.mu().to_bits(),
g.mu().to_bits(),
"mu bits differ at {n} threads, time {t}: ref={ref_mu} got={got_mu}",
n = sizes[i],
ref_mu = g_ref.mu(),
got_mu = g.mu(),
);
assert_eq!(
g_ref.sigma().to_bits(),
g.sigma().to_bits(),
"sigma bits differ at {n} threads, time {t}: ref={ref_sigma} got={got_sigma}",
n = sizes[i],
ref_sigma = g_ref.sigma(),
got_sigma = g.sigma(),
);
}
}
}
-1
View File
@@ -42,7 +42,6 @@ fn game_1v1_draw_golden() {
Outcome::draw(2),
&GameOptions {
p_draw: 0.25,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: Default::default(),
},
)
-1
View File
@@ -45,7 +45,6 @@ fn game_ranked_rejects_bad_p_draw() {
Outcome::winner(0, 2),
&GameOptions {
p_draw: 1.5,
score_sigma: 1.0,
convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
},
)
-139
View File
@@ -1,139 +0,0 @@
//! Integration tests for `Outcome::Scored` routing through `History::add_events`.
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
#[test]
fn scored_two_team_one_event_pulls_winner_up() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
assert!(
mu_a > 0.0,
"winner mu should be pulled up; got mu_a = {mu_a}"
);
assert!(
mu_b < 0.0,
"loser mu should be pulled down; got mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_a > mu_b,
"winner mu should exceed loser mu; got mu_a = {mu_a}, mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_zero_margin_treats_as_tie() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([5.0, 5.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
let sigma_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().sigma();
// Equal scores: posterior means stay symmetric around the prior mean.
assert!(
(mu_a - mu_b).abs() < 1e-9,
"equal scores should leave mu_a == mu_b; got {mu_a} vs {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_a.abs() < 1e-9,
"equal scores against equal priors should leave mu near zero; got {mu_a}"
);
// A zero-margin scored event still reduces uncertainty.
assert!(
sigma_a < 2.0,
"expected sigma to tighten below prior 2.0; got {}",
sigma_a
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_three_team_partial_order() {
let mut h: History = History::builder()
.mu(0.0)
.sigma(2.0)
.beta(1.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.0))
.score_sigma(1.0)
.build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("c")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([9.0, 5.0, 1.0]),
}];
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
let mu_a = h.current_skill(&"a").unwrap().mu();
let mu_b = h.current_skill(&"b").unwrap().mu();
let mu_c = h.current_skill(&"c").unwrap().mu();
assert!(
mu_a > mu_b,
"team with highest score should rank highest; mu_a = {mu_a}, mu_b = {mu_b}"
);
assert!(
mu_b > mu_c,
"middle score should outrank lowest; mu_b = {mu_b}, mu_c = {mu_c}"
);
}
#[test]
fn scored_rejects_outcome_team_count_mismatch() {
use trueskill_tt::InferenceError;
let mut h: History = History::builder().build();
let events: Vec<Event<i64, &'static str>> = vec![Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0, 1.0]), // 3 scores, 2 teams
}];
let err = h.add_events(events).unwrap_err();
assert!(
matches!(err, InferenceError::MismatchedShape { .. }),
"expected MismatchedShape error, got {err:?}"
);
}