Commit Graph
22 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 56ff01074f docs(cargo): correct the licence note — kellnr does not require one
The note claimed `cargo publish` rejects a crate without `license`. That is
true only for crates.io; publishing to an alternative registry does not check
it, verified by a dry run against kellnr that packages and verifies cleanly.

Staying unlicensed is a deliberate choice, so the note now says that and states
the actual consequence — all-rights-reserved by default — rather than a
mechanical blocker that does not exist.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T5SYDExxL4vZgvunrcNSMc
2026-08-27 17:30:59 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 8d47e54a8a chore: keep the 48 MB ATP dataset out of the published crate
`cargo publish --dry-run` packaged 48.1 MiB (8.6 MiB compressed) for a library
whose source is 312 KB. All of it was examples/atp.csv, a tennis dataset the
atp example reads.

examples/atp.rs opens it by relative path at runtime rather than include_str!,
so excluding the data still compiles and `cargo package --verify` still builds
every target — the example just needs the file fetched from the repo to run.

Packaged size is now 360.8 KiB / 83.1 KiB compressed, a 133x reduction. Every
consumer would otherwise have paid that download.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T5SYDExxL4vZgvunrcNSMc
2026-08-27 17:29:44 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 7de092ba12 chore: target releases at the private kellnr registry
Mirrors the textus setup, adapted for a single crate rather than a workspace.

Cargo.toml gains publish = ["kellnr"], which does double duty: it points
cargo-release at the private registry and makes an accidental `cargo publish`
to crates.io a hard error rather than an irreversible mistake.

.cargo/config.toml is committed rather than left to a per-user
~/.cargo/config.toml. Without it a fresh clone, a new machine, or CI fails
with "registry index was not found in any configuration: kellnr" before
compiling anything. The index URL is not a secret; the token stays in
~/.cargo/credentials.toml, or CARGO_REGISTRIES_KELLNR_TOKEN in CI.

release.toml flips publish from false to true and pins push = false, so the
Justfile recipe pushes last — after tags and publish have both succeeded.
The git-cliff pre-release hook is unchanged.

cliff.toml gained a Breaking Changes group. Its commit_parsers matched on type
alone with conventional_commits = false, so `refactor!: remove the inert online
flag` rendered as an ordinary Refactor bullet and the break was invisible in
the generated changelog. The new parsers match a `!` subject and a
BREAKING CHANGE body, and must precede the type parsers because the first match
wins. The unreleased section now opens with the break, which matters because
the next release is the one that removes HistoryBuilder::online.

The release recipe runs `just ci` before cutting: cargo-release only
verify-compiles the packaged crate and publishing cannot be undone, and the
release profile is where this crate's defects have historically hidden.

Still unpublishable: Cargo.toml has no `license`. That is a deliberate TODO,
not an oversight.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T5SYDExxL4vZgvunrcNSMc
2026-08-27 17:28:51 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 9e8515b7cd docs: refresh README and CLAUDE.md; add ingest benchmark
The CLAUDE.md architecture section still described the pre-redesign engine:
its data flow named `Batch`, `Agent`, `Player` and `message.rs`, none of
which have existed since T2, and the public API it listed did not match
`lib.rs`. It is the first thing a fresh session reads, so it was actively
misleading. Rewritten against the current module layout, with the invariants
that are easy to violate — ties needing a positive `p_draw`, NaN never being
convergence, log-space evidence, color contiguity, `forbid(unsafe_code)`,
and ingestion-order equivalence — written down.

The README Todo list had five entries that were already done, including
"Time needs to be an enum": `Time` has been a trait since T2, and the
`batch::compute_elapsed()` it pointed at no longer exists. The genuinely
open item — cross-checking `quality()` against sublee/trueskill — stays.

`benches/ingest.rs` measures one-event-per-call against a single batched
call. The rest of the suite only measured batched construction, which is why
the quadratic fixed earlier on this branch went unnoticed for so long.

`TimeSlice::log_evidence` also hashes its target set once instead of
scanning the slice per player per event, so `log_evidence_for` with many
keys is no longer quadratic.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DnsaJg74eNSva3PJjK2eej
2026-08-04 22:05:49 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 9506fed4b3 chore: add CI, crate metadata, and crate-level documentation
There was no CI of any kind — no workflows directory at all — despite a full
release pipeline (release.toml, cliff.toml, a maintained CHANGELOG, three
tagged releases). The workflow covers the feature combinations that actually
have distinct behaviour, including a release-profile job: `debug_assert!` is
compiled out there, which is exactly where the validation this branch added
has to hold, and a debug-only suite would never have seen it. Determinism is
checked at RAYON_NUM_THREADS of 1, 2, 4 and 8.

The Justfile gains test/lint/fmt/determinism recipes so the same checks run
locally with one command, and `just ci` runs the lot.

`Cargo.toml` had only name, version and edition, so `cargo publish` would
have been rejected. Added description, repository, readme, keywords,
categories, exclude, and `rust-version = "1.85"` — the edition-2024 floor,
now verified by a CI job. Two let-chains introduced earlier on this branch
would have pushed that to 1.88; they are rewritten to keep the floor where
it was.

`src/lib.rs` had no `//!` header at all, so the docs.rs landing page would
have been a bare symbol list — conspicuous given every other module has one.
It now explains what Through Time does differently, and carries three
runnable examples (which `cargo test --doc` checks, where previously there
was nothing to check), including the draw/p_draw interaction that is the
easiest way to get an error out of this crate.

`cargo publish --dry-run` now packages and verifies cleanly. The only
remaining blocker is `license`, which is yours to choose — noted as a TODO
in the manifest rather than picked unilaterally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DnsaJg74eNSva3PJjK2eej
2026-08-04 22:03:39 +02:00
logaritmisk 2b5d3b1687 chore: Release trueskill-tt version 0.1.2 2026-06-12 22:24:11 +02:00
logaritmisk 8069941a81 chore: Release trueskill-tt version 0.1.1 2026-04-27 09:01:46 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 4.7 8b53cacd64 T4 (MarginFactor): scored outcomes via Gaussian-margin EP evidence
Adds soft Gaussian-observation evidence on the per-pair diff variable,
enabling continuous score margins as a richer alternative to ranks.

Public API:
- `Outcome::Scored([scores])` (non-breaking enum extension under
  `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Game::scored(teams, outcome, options)` constructor parallel to
  `Game::ranked`.
- `EventBuilder::scores([...])` fluent helper.
- `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` knob (default 1.0, validated > 0).
- `GameOptions::score_sigma`.
- `EventKind` re-exported from `lib.rs` (annotated `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- New `InferenceError::InvalidParameter { name, value }` variant.

Internals:
- `MarginFactor` (`factor/margin.rs`): Gaussian observation factor that
  closes in one EP step; cavity-cached log-evidence mirrors `TruncFactor`.
- `BuiltinFactor::Margin` dispatch arm.
- `DiffFactor` enum in `game.rs` lets `Game::likelihoods` and the new
  `likelihoods_scored` share the per-pair link abstraction.
- Per-event `EventKind { Ranked, Scored { score_sigma } }` routed through
  `TimeSlice::add_events`, `iteration_direct`, and `log_evidence`.

Tests: 88 lib + 27 integration (4 new in `tests/scored.rs`); existing
goldens byte-identical.  Bench: `benches/scored.rs` baseline ~960µs for
60 events × 20-player pool with default convergence.

Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md
Spec item marked Done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-27 08:47:36 +02:00
logaritmisk 6bf3e7e294 T3: rayon-backed concurrency (opt-in) (#2)
Implements T3 of `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md` Section 6. Plan: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t3-concurrency.md` (11 tasks).

## Summary

### Breaking

- `Send + Sync` bounds added to public traits: `Time`, `Drift<T>`, `Observer<T>`, `Factor`, `Schedule`. All built-in impls satisfy these via auto-derive; downstream custom impls will need the bounds.

### New

- Opt-in `rayon` cargo feature. When enabled:
  - Within-slice event iteration runs color-group events in parallel via `par_iter_mut` (`TimeSlice::sweep_color_groups`).
  - `History::learning_curves` computes per-slice posteriors in parallel; merges sequentially in slice order.
  - `History::log_evidence` / `log_evidence_for` use per-slice parallel computation with deterministic sequential reduction (sum in slice order) — bit-identical to the sequential baseline.
- `ColorGroups` infrastructure (`src/color_group.rs`) with greedy graph coloring. Events sharing no `Index` go into the same color group; events in the same group can run concurrently without touching each other's skills.
- `tests/determinism.rs` asserts bit-identical posteriors across `RAYON_NUM_THREADS={1, 2, 4, 8}`.
- `benches/history_converge.rs` measures end-to-end convergence on three workload shapes.

## Performance

### Sequential (no rayon, default build)

| Metric | Before T3 | After T3 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Batch::iteration` | 22.88 µs | 23.23 µs | **+1.5%** (noise) |
| `Gaussian::*` | ≈218–264 ps | ≈236 ps | within noise |

**No sequential regression.** Default build is as fast as T2.

### Parallel (`--features rayon`, Apple M5 Pro, auto thread count)

| Workload | Sequential | Parallel | Speedup |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 500 events / 100 competitors / 10 per slice | 4.03 ms | 4.24 ms | **1.0×** |
| 2000 events / 200 competitors / 20 per slice | 20.18 ms | 19.82 ms | **1.0×** |
| 5000 events / 50000 competitors / 1 slice | 11.88 ms | 9.10 ms | **1.3×** |

### ⚠️ The spec's >=2× target was not met on realistic workloads.

T3's within-slice color-group parallelism only shows material benefit when a slice holds many events AND the competitor pool is large enough to give the greedy coloring room to partition. Typical TrueSkill workloads (tens of events per slice) don't fit that profile — rayon's task-spawn overhead dominates.

**Cross-slice parallelism (dirty-bit slice skipping per spec Section 5) is the natural next step** for real-workload speedup and would deliver the spec's ~50–500× online-add speedup. Deferred to a future tier.

## Determinism

`tests/determinism.rs` runs a 200-event history at thread counts {1, 2, 4, 8} via `rayon::ThreadPoolBuilder::install` and asserts every `(time, posterior)` pair has bit-identical `mu` and `sigma` (compared via `f64::to_bits()`). Passes.

## Internals

- Parallel path uses an `unsafe` block to concurrently write to `SkillStore` from color-group-disjoint events. Soundness rests on the color-group invariant (events in the same color touch no shared `Index`), guaranteed by construction in `TimeSlice::recompute_color_groups`. Sequential path unchanged from T2.
- `RAYON_THRESHOLD = 64` — color groups smaller than this fall back to sequential inside `sweep_color_groups` to avoid task-spawn overhead.
- Thread-local `ScratchArena` per rayon worker thread.

## Test plan

- [x] `cargo test --features approx` — 96 tests pass (74 lib + 22 integration)
- [x] `cargo test --features approx,rayon` — 97 tests pass (+1 determinism)
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx,rayon -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo +nightly fmt --check` — clean
- [x] `cargo bench --bench batch --features approx` — 23.23 µs (no regression vs T2)
- [x] `cargo bench --bench history_converge --features approx,rayon` — runs on all three workloads
- [x] Bit-identical posteriors across `RAYON_NUM_THREADS={1, 2, 4, 8}` — verified

## Commit history

13 commits on `t3-concurrency`. Each task is self-contained and bisectable. See `git log main..t3-concurrency` for the full list.

## Deferred

- **Cross-slice parallelism** (dirty-bit slice skipping) — the path that would actually speed up typical TrueSkill workloads.
- **Default-on `rayon` feature** — spec called for default-on; we keep it opt-in until the feature proves stable in production use.
- **Synchronous-EP schedule with barrier merge** — alternative parallel strategy per spec Section 6.
- **`MarginFactor` / `Outcome::Scored`** — T4.
- **`Damped` / `Residual` schedules** — T4.
- **N-team `predict_outcome`** — T4.
- **`Game::custom` full ergonomics** — T4.

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Reviewed-on: #2
Co-authored-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
Co-committed-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
2026-04-24 13:01:01 +00:00
logaritmisk d2aab82c1e T0 + T1 + T2: engine redesign through new API surface (#1)
Implements tiers T0, T1, T2 of `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`. All three tiers have landed together on this branch because they build on one another; this PR rolls them up for a single review pass.

Per-tier plans:
- T0: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-23-t0-numerical-parity.md`
- T1: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t1-factor-graph.md`
- T2: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t2-new-api-surface.md`

## Summary

### T0 — Numerical parity (internal)

- `Gaussian` switched to natural-parameter storage `(pi, tau)`; mul/div now ~7× faster (218 ps vs 1.57 ns).
- `HashMap<Index, _>` → dense `Vec<_>` keyed by `Index.0` (via `AgentStore<D>`, `SkillStore`).
- `ScratchArena` eliminates per-event allocations in `Game::likelihoods`.
- `InferenceError` seed type added (1 variant).
- 38 → 53 tests passing through T1.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 29.84 → 21.25 µs.

### T1 — Factor graph machinery (internal)

- `Factor` trait + `BuiltinFactor` enum (TeamSum / RankDiff / Trunc) driving within-game inference.
- `VarStore` flat storage for variable marginals.
- `Schedule` trait + `EpsilonOrMax` impl replacing the hand-rolled EP loop.
- `Game::likelihoods` rebuilt on the factor-graph machinery; iteration counts and goldens preserved to within 1e-6.
- 53 tests passing.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 23.01 µs (slight regression absorbed in T2).

### T2 — New API surface (breaking)

**Renames:**
- `IndexMap → KeyTable`, `Player → Rating`, `Agent → Competitor`, `Batch → TimeSlice`

**New types:**
- `Time` trait with `Untimed` ZST and `i64` impls; `Drift<T>`, `Rating<T, D>`, `Competitor<T, D>`, `TimeSlice<T>`, `History<T, D, O, K>` all generic.
- `Event<T, K>`, `Team<K>`, `Member<K>`, `Outcome` (`Ranked` variant; `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Observer<T>` trait + `NullObserver`.
- `ConvergenceOptions`, `ConvergenceReport`.
- `GameOptions`, `OwnedGame<T, D>`.

**Three-tier ingestion:**
- `history.record_winner(&K, &K, T)` / `record_draw(&K, &K, T)` — 1v1 convenience.
- `history.add_events(iter)` — typed bulk.
- `history.event(T).team([...]).weights([...]).ranking([...]).commit()` — fluent.

**Query API:** `current_skill`, `learning_curve`, `learning_curves` (keyed on `K`), `log_evidence`, `log_evidence_for`, `predict_quality`, `predict_outcome`.

**Game constructors:** `ranked`, `one_v_one`, `free_for_all`, `custom` — all returning `Result<_, InferenceError>`.

**`factors` module:** `Factor`, `Schedule`, `VarStore`, `VarId`, `BuiltinFactor`, `EpsilonOrMax`, `ScheduleReport`, `TeamSumFactor`, `RankDiffFactor`, `TruncFactor` now public.

**Errors:** `InferenceError` gains `MismatchedShape`, `InvalidProbability`, `ConvergenceFailed`; boundary panics converted to `Result`.

**Removed (breaking):** `History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose)`, `HistoryBuilder::gamma(f64)`, `HistoryBuilder::time(bool)`, `History.time: bool`, `learning_curves_by_index`, nested-Vec public `add_events`.

## Behavior change (documented in CHANGELOG)

`Time = Untimed` has `elapsed_to → 0`, so no drift accumulates between slices. The old `time=false` mode implicitly forced `elapsed=1` on reappearance via an `i64::MAX` sentinel — that quirk is not reproducible under a typed time axis. Tests that depended on it now use `History::<i64, _>` with explicit `1..=n` timestamps. One test (`test_env_ttt`) had 3 Gaussian goldens updated to reflect the corrected semantics; documented in commit `33a7d90`.

## Final numbers

| Metric | Before T0 | After T2 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Batch::iteration` | 29.84 µs | 21.36 µs | **-28%** |
| `Gaussian::mul` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| `Gaussian::div` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| Tests passing | 38 | 90 | +52 |

All other Gaussian ops unchanged (~219 ps add/sub, ~264 ps pi/tau reads).

## Test plan

- [x] `cargo test --features approx` — 90/90 pass (68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner + 2 equivalence)
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo +nightly fmt --check` — clean
- [x] `cargo bench --bench batch` — 21.36 µs
- [x] `cargo bench --bench gaussian` — unchanged from T1
- [x] `cargo run --example atp --features approx` — rewritten in new API, runs clean
- [x] Historical Game-level goldens preserved in `tests/equivalence.rs`
- [x] Public API matches spec Section 4 (verified by integration tests in `tests/api_shape.rs`)

## Commit history

~45 commits total across T0 + T1 + T2. Each task is self-contained and individually tested; the branch is bisectable. See `git log main..t2-new-api-surface` for the full list.

## Deferred to later tiers

- `Outcome::Scored` + `MarginFactor` — T4
- `Damped` / `Residual` schedules — T4
- `Send + Sync` bounds + Rayon parallelism — T3
- N-team `predict_outcome` — T4
- `Game::custom` full ergonomics — T4

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Reviewed-on: #1
Co-authored-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
Co-committed-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
2026-04-24 11:20:04 +00:00
logaritmisk dc47964310 added benchmark 2026-03-23 14:55:18 +01:00
logaritmisk fc0efcdc52 Update edition 2025-02-21 14:06:28 +01:00
Anders Olsson aea3df285a Update crates 2023-06-28 09:42:12 +02:00
logaritmisk 2b83ee5ef9 Added benchmark for Batch 2022-12-19 07:42:08 +01:00
logaritmisk 13e6454d3d Update crates and added methods to get a key or all keys in an IndexMap 2022-12-12 10:50:59 +01:00
logaritmisk 18d55a8ccf Clean up example 2022-07-04 23:13:57 +02:00
logaritmisk 22c61d47b1 Change time to use i64 instead of u64 2022-06-28 23:18:55 +02:00
logaritmisk c9d9d59535 More things, better things, awesome 2022-06-18 23:39:42 +02:00
logaritmisk dc10504b80 Port from julia version instead 2022-06-18 22:27:38 +02:00
logaritmisk 1b6e07225b Handle case where there is no time 2022-06-13 21:55:43 +02:00
logaritmisk 5a7053fb5d Passing tests for Batch 2022-06-12 21:43:35 +02:00
logaritmisk de58d01322 Initial commit. 2022-06-10 15:22:27 +02:00