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Author	SHA1	Message	Date
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5	dc1f4d5847	fix!: make the Time generic reachable `History<T: Time, ..>` has always been generic over the time axis, `Untimed` has always been exported, and `Drift<T>` is generic specifically so that "seasonal or calendar-aware drift is expressible without going through i64". None of it was reachable from a downstream crate. Every construction route pinned `T = i64`: `History::builder()`, `History::builder_with_key()`, and the only `Default` impl on `HistoryBuilder`. Its fields are private and it had no `new`. So all three escape routes failed to compile, and a consumer with domain timestamps had to convert to i64 — which is the exact thing the parameter exists to avoid. One of `History`'s four type parameters was paid for at every signature and could never be varied. `Default` is now generic over `T` and `K`, `HistoryBuilder::new()` exists, and `time_type::<T2>()` / `key_type::<K2>()` join `drift` and `observer` as type-changing setters: History::builder().time_type::<Untimed>().build() History::builder().key_type::<String>().build() HistoryBuilder::<Season, _, _, String>::new().build() `key_type` replaces `builder_with_key`, which could not be turbofished — `K` sat on the impl rather than the function, so callers had to spell `History::<i64, _, _, String>::builder_with_key()`. 18 call sites across 15 files migrated. tests/time_axis.rs is the part that matters. NOTHING in the repository constructed a non-i64 history, which is precisely why this survived, so the fix is only half done without a test that exercises the generic. It defines a `Season(u16)` time type and a `SeasonalDrift` that accumulates between seasons but not within one — the calendar-aware case the trait's docs cite — and checks the whole path: fit, converge, and read a learning curve whose times come back as `Season`, not as integers. Two of the six tests are controls rather than assertions about output. `Untimed` must ignore drift entirely, since elapsed is always zero, so gamma 0.0 and gamma 5.0 must agree bit for bit. And a custom `Drift` must actually widen a gap across seasons, or the test above would pass whether or not the drift was consulted at all. The README's ticked "Generalise a time axis" box is now true. BREAKING CHANGE: `History::builder_with_key()` is removed. Use `History::builder().key_type::<K>()`. Closes #68 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ	2026-09-09 20:19:16 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5	8dff7513f7	fix!: seal ConstantDrift's field so gamma can be validated `gamma` enters only as `gamma * gamma`, so the sign was squared away: measured against the old public-field form, `ConstantDrift(-0.0833)` produced results bit identical to `ConstantDrift(0.0833)`. The sign was neither rejected nor honoured — it vanished. It could not be checked while the field was a public tuple position, because there was nothing to intercept. Validating inside `variance_for_elapsed` would have been worse: it runs in the sweep, so a construction-time mistake would panic mid-inference, and `Gaussian::from_ms` is a worked example of why that is the wrong place — rejecting NaN there turned the NonFiniteResult reporting path into a crash. So `ConstantDrift::new` is the only way in and it checks, with `gamma()` to read the value back. 129 call sites rewritten across src, tests, benches, examples and the README. The dated plan and spec documents under docs/superpowers are left alone: they record what was built at the time, and rewriting them would falsify that. tests/constructor_validation.rs is the more valuable half. This defect class was closed three times in one session and reopened twice, because each fix validated the layer it had just touched and inferred the rest — `HistoryBuilder`, then `Game`'s own entry points, then the constructors beneath both. A per-site fix cannot notice the site nobody thought of, so that file enumerates every public entry point taking a magnitude and asserts each refuses negative and non-finite values. It found an eleventh defect on its first run: `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` accepted infinity, because `inf > 0.0` is true and the assert only tested positivity. Fixed, and its own `should_panic` message updated to match. `Gaussian::from_ms` is deliberately exempt from the non-finite half, for the reason above: a broken fit produces a NaN sigma legitimately and `converge` must be allowed to report it. The convergence-level drift-variance check stays and is now tested through a custom `Drift` implementation, since `ConstantDrift` can no longer reach it. That check is the only thing standing between a third-party `Drift` and a NaN fit. BREAKING CHANGE: `ConstantDrift`'s field is private. Replace `ConstantDrift(x)` with `ConstantDrift::new(x)`, and `drift().0` with `drift().gamma()`. `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` now rejects infinity. Closes #65 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ	2026-09-09 19:11:57 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5	1bb6bb31d8	feat: factorise the joint once with History::joint `posterior_of`, `posterior_of_at` and `expected_variance_reduction` each built the joint precision matrix, factorised it, asked one question and threw it away. The factorisation is O(n^3) in the history's appearances and depends only on the fit, so a caller asking about every pair in a standings table, every cell in a grid, or every candidate in an active-learning sweep paid for the same factorisation once per question. `History::joint()` returns a `Joint` handle that pays it once. Measured on 1976 appearances, 90 queries: 68.4s one-shot against 745ms factorise plus 93ms of queries — 81.6x, with bit-identical answers. Per query, Criterion at 480 appearances: 9.0ms one-shot against 48us cached, 187x. The handle borrows the history, which is what makes it correct with no invalidation logic: the borrow checker forbids adding events or refitting while it is alive, so there is no window in which the factorisation could describe a fit that no longer exists. It also makes the lifetime of the n^2 factor explicit rather than parking it in the history forever — at 4000 appearances that is 128MB, which is not something to cache silently. Every question the joint answers turns out to be a bilinear form, c^T A^-1 a = (L^-1 c) . (L^-1 a) so no caller ever needs L^-1 c itself. Replacing the general solve with a forward substitution drops the back substitution as wasted work, halving a query, and removes a failure mode: a variance as `c . (A^-1 c)` is a difference of products that can round negative, where `\|L^-1 c\|^2` is a sum of squares and cannot. The one-shot calls are unchanged in cost and now delegate to the handle, so the two paths cannot drift apart. tests/joint_handle.rs asserts they agree bit for bit, including at pinned times, under UnknownKeys::Prior, and across candidate matchups. Refs #51 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ	2026-09-08 07:53:51 +02:00

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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5

dc1f4d5847

fix!: make the Time generic reachable

`History<T: Time, ..>` has always been generic over the time axis,
`Untimed` has always been exported, and `Drift<T>` is generic specifically
so that "seasonal or calendar-aware drift is expressible without going
through i64". None of it was reachable from a downstream crate.

Every construction route pinned `T = i64`: `History::builder()`,
`History::builder_with_key()`, and the only `Default` impl on
`HistoryBuilder`. Its fields are private and it had no `new`. So all three
escape routes failed to compile, and a consumer with domain timestamps
had to convert to i64 — which is the exact thing the parameter exists to
avoid. One of `History`'s four type parameters was paid for at every
signature and could never be varied.

`Default` is now generic over `T` and `K`, `HistoryBuilder::new()` exists,
and `time_type::<T2>()` / `key_type::<K2>()` join `drift` and `observer`
as type-changing setters:

    History::builder().time_type::<Untimed>().build()
    History::builder().key_type::<String>().build()
    HistoryBuilder::<Season, _, _, String>::new().build()

`key_type` replaces `builder_with_key`, which could not be turbofished —
`K` sat on the impl rather than the function, so callers had to spell
`History::<i64, _, _, String>::builder_with_key()`. 18 call sites across
15 files migrated.

tests/time_axis.rs is the part that matters. NOTHING in the repository
constructed a non-i64 history, which is precisely why this survived, so
the fix is only half done without a test that exercises the generic. It
defines a `Season(u16)` time type and a `SeasonalDrift` that accumulates
between seasons but not within one — the calendar-aware case the trait's
docs cite — and checks the whole path: fit, converge, and read a learning
curve whose times come back as `Season`, not as integers.

Two of the six tests are controls rather than assertions about output.
`Untimed` must ignore drift entirely, since elapsed is always zero, so
gamma 0.0 and gamma 5.0 must agree bit for bit. And a custom `Drift` must
actually widen a gap across seasons, or the test above would pass whether
or not the drift was consulted at all.

The README's ticked "Generalise a time axis" box is now true.

BREAKING CHANGE: `History::builder_with_key()` is removed. Use
`History::builder().key_type::<K>()`.

Closes #68

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

2026-09-09 20:19:16 +02:00

logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5

8dff7513f7

fix!: seal ConstantDrift's field so gamma can be validated

`gamma` enters only as `gamma * gamma`, so the sign was squared away:
measured against the old public-field form, `ConstantDrift(-0.0833)`
produced results bit identical to `ConstantDrift(0.0833)`. The sign was
neither rejected nor honoured — it vanished.

It could not be checked while the field was a public tuple position,
because there was nothing to intercept. Validating inside
`variance_for_elapsed` would have been worse: it runs in the sweep, so a
construction-time mistake would panic mid-inference, and `Gaussian::from_ms`
is a worked example of why that is the wrong place — rejecting NaN there
turned the NonFiniteResult reporting path into a crash.

So `ConstantDrift::new` is the only way in and it checks, with `gamma()`
to read the value back. 129 call sites rewritten across src, tests,
benches, examples and the README. The dated plan and spec documents under
docs/superpowers are left alone: they record what was built at the time,
and rewriting them would falsify that.

tests/constructor_validation.rs is the more valuable half. This defect
class was closed three times in one session and reopened twice, because
each fix validated the layer it had just touched and inferred the rest —
`HistoryBuilder`, then `Game`'s own entry points, then the constructors
beneath both. A per-site fix cannot notice the site nobody thought of, so
that file enumerates every public entry point taking a magnitude and
asserts each refuses negative and non-finite values.

It found an eleventh defect on its first run: `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma`
accepted infinity, because `inf > 0.0` is true and the assert only tested
positivity. Fixed, and its own `should_panic` message updated to match.

`Gaussian::from_ms` is deliberately exempt from the non-finite half, for
the reason above: a broken fit produces a NaN sigma legitimately and
`converge` must be allowed to report it.

The convergence-level drift-variance check stays and is now tested through
a custom `Drift` implementation, since `ConstantDrift` can no longer reach
it. That check is the only thing standing between a third-party `Drift`
and a NaN fit.

BREAKING CHANGE: `ConstantDrift`'s field is private. Replace
`ConstantDrift(x)` with `ConstantDrift::new(x)`, and `drift().0` with
`drift().gamma()`. `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` now rejects infinity.

Closes #65

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

2026-09-09 19:11:57 +02:00

logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5

1bb6bb31d8

feat: factorise the joint once with History::joint

`posterior_of`, `posterior_of_at` and `expected_variance_reduction` each
built the joint precision matrix, factorised it, asked one question and
threw it away. The factorisation is O(n^3) in the history's appearances
and depends only on the fit, so a caller asking about every pair in a
standings table, every cell in a grid, or every candidate in an
active-learning sweep paid for the same factorisation once per question.

`History::joint()` returns a `Joint` handle that pays it once. Measured
on 1976 appearances, 90 queries: 68.4s one-shot against 745ms factorise
plus 93ms of queries — 81.6x, with bit-identical answers. Per query,
Criterion at 480 appearances: 9.0ms one-shot against 48us cached, 187x.

The handle borrows the history, which is what makes it correct with no
invalidation logic: the borrow checker forbids adding events or refitting
while it is alive, so there is no window in which the factorisation could
describe a fit that no longer exists. It also makes the lifetime of the
n^2 factor explicit rather than parking it in the history forever — at
4000 appearances that is 128MB, which is not something to cache silently.

Every question the joint answers turns out to be a bilinear form,

    c^T A^-1 a = (L^-1 c) . (L^-1 a)

so no caller ever needs L^-1 c itself. Replacing the general solve with a
forward substitution drops the back substitution as wasted work, halving
a query, and removes a failure mode: a variance as `c . (A^-1 c)` is a
difference of products that can round negative, where `|L^-1 c|^2` is a
sum of squares and cannot.

The one-shot calls are unchanged in cost and now delegate to the handle,
so the two paths cannot drift apart. tests/joint_handle.rs asserts they
agree bit for bit, including at pinned times, under UnknownKeys::Prior,
and across candidate matchups.

Refs #51

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

2026-09-08 07:53:51 +02:00