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Author SHA1 Message Date
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 b553c630f5 refactor!: K comes first in History, HistoryBuilder and Joint
`K` is the one type parameter people change, and it was last. Naming a
history in a struct field meant writing all four to say one thing:

    struct Ladder { history: History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, String> }
    struct Analysis<'h> { joint: Joint<'h, i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str> }

Now:

    struct Ladder { history: History<String> }
    struct Analysis<'h> { joint: Joint<'h> }

`History<K, T, D, O>`, all four defaulted. Bounds may reference later
parameters, so `D: Drift<T> = ConstantDrift` is legal in third position.
`Joint` gains the same defaults, so `Joint<'h, String>` spells it.

72 call sites swapped, and the reorder makes most of them shorter: 18
now read `History<String>` and the `&'static str` ones read `History`.
The two turbofished builders shrink from
`HistoryBuilder::<Untimed, _, _, String>::new()` to
`HistoryBuilder::<String, Untimed>::new()`.

`Joint` keeps `O` structurally, defaulted rather than removed. #72 notes
it never touches the observer, which is true — but it borrows the whole
`&'h History<K, T, D, O>` and calls `History::resolve_terms`, so dropping
the parameter means either a view type or moving that method off
`History`. The default already buys the entire user-visible benefit,
which was the spelling.

Refs #72.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
2026-09-10 06:49:22 +02:00
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 86e1521f8a feat: complete the evidence matrix and add current_skills
Three of four corners of the evidence matrix existed. The missing one was
forward-only *and* key-restricted — which is exactly what per-competitor
prequential scoring needs, the intersection of the two workloads
`log_evidence_for` and `filtered_log_evidence` are each documented for.

`filtered_log_evidence_for` fills it. It is not
`log_evidence_internal(true, targets)`: that path selects `skill.forward`
as the prior, which stops being a filtering quantity once `iteration`
has run a backward sweep. It goes through `filtered_pass` like its
unrestricted sibling, with the restriction applied to which events are
*scored*, never to which are *run* — so it is a held-out score under the
real history, not a score under a counterfactual one where nobody else
played.

Key resolution for both `*_for` accessors now shares `resolve_targets`,
so they cannot drift apart on how an unknown key is reported.

`current_skills` is the plural of `current_skill`. Building a
leaderboard previously meant materialising every competitor's full
smoothed curve via `learning_curves` and reading the last point of each.

Tests carry controls in both directions: naming every competitor must
recover the unrestricted value (catching a filter that drops too much),
and the restricted forward-only value must differ from the restricted
smoothed one (catching an alias).

Refs #70.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
2026-09-09 21:19:20 +02:00