061c481aad55ba31ded9e2e41f7d64f85dd7820c
6
Commits
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  logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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061c481aad |
refactor!: typed discriminators for InferenceError
Six of fifteen variants carried a `&'static str` discriminator, about
thirty magic strings between them, and the only thing a caller could do
with one was print it. Four new enums replace them:
Parameter 13 variants, replacing 9 strings in InvalidParameter
Shape 4 variants, replacing 10 in MismatchedShape
OutcomeKind 2 variants, replacing WrongOutcomeKind's three fields
CompetitorField 2 variants, replacing ConflictingCompetitorConfig's
`InvalidProbability` folds into `InvalidParameter` as
`Parameter::PDraw`. It was a bespoke variant for one scalar while every
other scalar shared `InvalidParameter`, and it omitted the parameter
name — so the same parameter had two mechanisms.
`JointUnavailable { reason: &'static str }` splits into `EmptyHistory`,
`JointRequiresScoredEvents` and `NotPositiveDefinite`. The three are
conditions a caller branches on differently — add events, use
`predict_win_probabilities`, or reconsider the priors — and telling them
apart used to mean string-matching English. One test already proved the
distinction was load-bearing: the blanket conversion mapped the
empty-history case onto the ranked one and `an_empty_history_has_no_joint`
caught it immediately.
`NonFiniteResult` splits into `NonFiniteStep { context, step }` and
`NonFiniteSkill { mu, sigma }`. One `step: (f64, f64)` field was
carrying a sweep step from `converge` and a skill's own moments from a
prediction — two situations in one variant, and a field name that could
only be right for one of them.
`InvalidParameter { name: "beta with point-mass skills" }` becomes
`NoPerformanceVariance`. It was never a parameter out of range: both
values are individually valid and it is their combination that leaves
nothing varying.
Three `Display` impls did not meet the standard the others set, and the
typed data is what makes fixing them possible:
before drift variance is invalid: NaN
after drift variance must be finite and non-negative (got NaN)
before kinds: expected length 3, got 2
after the outcome describes a different number of teams than the
event has: expected 3, got 2
before Game::ranked: expected Outcome::Ranked, got Outcome::Scored
after expected Outcome::Ranked, got Outcome::Scored; call
Game::scored for a scored outcome
`Parameter::range()` states each parameter's actual bounds, which no
`&'static str` name could have. `error::message_tests` renders every one
and asserts each is a sentence rather than a label, and that the three
above now carry a range or a next step.
The four internal `MismatchedShape` kinds — `results`, `times`, `kinds`,
and the weights array — collapse to `Shape::Internal`, whose `Display`
says plainly that reaching it is a bug in this crate. They are checks on
`add_events_with_prior`'s own parallel arrays and are unreachable
through the public API; they stay checked rather than becoming
`debug_assert!`s, because release is where this crate's defects hide.
Closes #74.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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b553c630f5 |
refactor!: K comes first in History, HistoryBuilder and Joint
`K` is the one type parameter people change, and it was last. Naming a
history in a struct field meant writing all four to say one thing:
struct Ladder { history: History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, String> }
struct Analysis<'h> { joint: Joint<'h, i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str> }
Now:
struct Ladder { history: History<String> }
struct Analysis<'h> { joint: Joint<'h> }
`History<K, T, D, O>`, all four defaulted. Bounds may reference later
parameters, so `D: Drift<T> = ConstantDrift` is legal in third position.
`Joint` gains the same defaults, so `Joint<'h, String>` spells it.
72 call sites swapped, and the reorder makes most of them shorter: 18
now read `History<String>` and the `&'static str` ones read `History`.
The two turbofished builders shrink from
`HistoryBuilder::<Untimed, _, _, String>::new()` to
`HistoryBuilder::<String, Untimed>::new()`.
`Joint` keeps `O` structurally, defaulted rather than removed. #72 notes
it never touches the observer, which is true — but it borrows the whole
`&'h History<K, T, D, O>` and calls `History::resolve_terms`, so dropping
the parameter means either a view type or moving that method off
`History`. The default already buys the entire user-visible benefit,
which was the spelling.
Refs #72.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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076a7ded8c |
feat!: Gaussian's EP operations stop wearing arithmetic's clothes
`Gaussian` publicly implemented `Mul`, `Div`, `Add` and `Sub`. They were
the EP product, cavity and variance-space convolutions, and every one of
them lies to a reader who takes the operator at face value:
a = N(10, 2) b = N(4, 3) c = N(1, 1)
a * b N(8.15, 1.66) not 40
a - b sigma GREW, 2 -> sqrt(4 + 9)
a * N(1, 0) mu = NaN "multiply by one"
a / c pi = -0.75 mu() prints a confident 0
The last is this crate's signature defect on a public operator. `Div` is
the cavity and can legitimately leave a negative precision, which is not
a distribution — and `mu()`/`sigma()` guard `pi <= 0` and report `0.0`
and `inf`, so it comes back as a plausible number with no panic, no
`Debug` marker and nothing to test against.
The four impls are now `pub(crate)` inherent methods that say what they
do: `ep_product`, `cavity`, `convolve`, `convolve_diff`, plus `scale`
for the one operation that genuinely is arithmetic. Nothing in a user's
workflow needed operator syntax; inference did, and it still has it.
`pi()` and `tau()` follow. Storing natural parameters is a performance
decision — it makes message passing two adds — not a contract. The
public surface is now exactly: `from_ms`, `from_mv`, `mu`, `sigma`,
`variance`, `probability_below`, `probability_above`. `from_mv` and
`variance` are promoted from `pub(crate)`; they are the honest pair for
callers who already hold a variance and should not pay a round trip
through the square root.
Four integration tests asserted bit-identity on `(pi, tau)`. They assert
it on `(mu, variance)` instead — still `assert_eq!`, still exact, and
`1/pi` and `tau/pi` are deterministic, so bit-equal natural parameters
give bit-equal moments. `a_nan_sigma_passes_through_from_ms` drops its
`|| g.pi().is_nan()` half: `sigma()` substitutes for `pi <= 0` and
`pi == inf`, so NaN survives to it only from a NaN precision.
`benches/gaussian.rs` is deleted. It timed two f64 additions through the
public operators, and keeping those public solely to feed it is the same
thing #73 objected to when a benchmark was dictating five public types.
The paths it covered are exercised by `batch` and `history_converge`
through the real call chain.
Closes #71.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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e4a68ba1a7 |
fix!: per-key queries report unknown keys instead of a plausible constant
Two accessors answered a question about a key the history had never seen with a well-formed value indistinguishable from a real answer. `log_evidence_for` filter_map'd unknown keys away. An empty target list means "no restriction" downstream, so a list of *entirely* unknown keys returned the whole-history evidence: measured on a two-cohort fixture, `log_evidence_for(["typo"])` returned exactly `log_evidence()`. On the one workload it is documented for — leave-one-out cross-validation — that is the un-held-out score, a plausible number that silently invalidates the comparison it was computed for. It now returns `Err(UnknownKey)` naming the offending position. `learning_curve` and `filtered_learning_curve` returned an empty `Vec` both for a typo'd key and for a competitor who is registered but has not played yet. They now return `Option`, so `None` is "never heard of it" and `Some(vec![])` is "known, no appearances". Tests carry a control case in each direction, so they cannot pass by everything returning the same thing. Closes #66, closes #70. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ |
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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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8dff7513f7 |
fix!: seal ConstantDrift's field so gamma can be validated
`gamma` enters only as `gamma * gamma`, so the sign was squared away: measured against the old public-field form, `ConstantDrift(-0.0833)` produced results bit identical to `ConstantDrift(0.0833)`. The sign was neither rejected nor honoured — it vanished. It could not be checked while the field was a public tuple position, because there was nothing to intercept. Validating inside `variance_for_elapsed` would have been worse: it runs in the sweep, so a construction-time mistake would panic mid-inference, and `Gaussian::from_ms` is a worked example of why that is the wrong place — rejecting NaN there turned the NonFiniteResult reporting path into a crash. So `ConstantDrift::new` is the only way in and it checks, with `gamma()` to read the value back. 129 call sites rewritten across src, tests, benches, examples and the README. The dated plan and spec documents under docs/superpowers are left alone: they record what was built at the time, and rewriting them would falsify that. tests/constructor_validation.rs is the more valuable half. This defect class was closed three times in one session and reopened twice, because each fix validated the layer it had just touched and inferred the rest — `HistoryBuilder`, then `Game`'s own entry points, then the constructors beneath both. A per-site fix cannot notice the site nobody thought of, so that file enumerates every public entry point taking a magnitude and asserts each refuses negative and non-finite values. It found an eleventh defect on its first run: `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` accepted infinity, because `inf > 0.0` is true and the assert only tested positivity. Fixed, and its own `should_panic` message updated to match. `Gaussian::from_ms` is deliberately exempt from the non-finite half, for the reason above: a broken fit produces a NaN sigma legitimately and `converge` must be allowed to report it. The convergence-level drift-variance check stays and is now tested through a custom `Drift` implementation, since `ConstantDrift` can no longer reach it. That check is the only thing standing between a third-party `Drift` and a NaN fit. BREAKING CHANGE: `ConstantDrift`'s field is private. Replace `ConstantDrift(x)` with `ConstantDrift::new(x)`, and `drift().0` with `drift().gamma()`. `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` now rejects infinity. Closes #65 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ |
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logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5
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e493f47e99 |
feat!: add History::register and History::rating, and reject config conflicts across batches
Three things #38 asked for, on a premise that had half dissolved. The
issue argued from "captured at first appearance", "missing it is silent"
and "missing it is permanent";
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