Files
trueskill-tt/src/event.rs
T
logaritmisk d2aab82c1e T0 + T1 + T2: engine redesign through new API surface (#1)
Implements tiers T0, T1, T2 of `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`. All three tiers have landed together on this branch because they build on one another; this PR rolls them up for a single review pass.

Per-tier plans:
- T0: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-23-t0-numerical-parity.md`
- T1: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t1-factor-graph.md`
- T2: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t2-new-api-surface.md`

## Summary

### T0 — Numerical parity (internal)

- `Gaussian` switched to natural-parameter storage `(pi, tau)`; mul/div now ~7× faster (218 ps vs 1.57 ns).
- `HashMap<Index, _>` → dense `Vec<_>` keyed by `Index.0` (via `AgentStore<D>`, `SkillStore`).
- `ScratchArena` eliminates per-event allocations in `Game::likelihoods`.
- `InferenceError` seed type added (1 variant).
- 38 → 53 tests passing through T1.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 29.84 → 21.25 µs.

### T1 — Factor graph machinery (internal)

- `Factor` trait + `BuiltinFactor` enum (TeamSum / RankDiff / Trunc) driving within-game inference.
- `VarStore` flat storage for variable marginals.
- `Schedule` trait + `EpsilonOrMax` impl replacing the hand-rolled EP loop.
- `Game::likelihoods` rebuilt on the factor-graph machinery; iteration counts and goldens preserved to within 1e-6.
- 53 tests passing.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 23.01 µs (slight regression absorbed in T2).

### T2 — New API surface (breaking)

**Renames:**
- `IndexMap → KeyTable`, `Player → Rating`, `Agent → Competitor`, `Batch → TimeSlice`

**New types:**
- `Time` trait with `Untimed` ZST and `i64` impls; `Drift<T>`, `Rating<T, D>`, `Competitor<T, D>`, `TimeSlice<T>`, `History<T, D, O, K>` all generic.
- `Event<T, K>`, `Team<K>`, `Member<K>`, `Outcome` (`Ranked` variant; `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Observer<T>` trait + `NullObserver`.
- `ConvergenceOptions`, `ConvergenceReport`.
- `GameOptions`, `OwnedGame<T, D>`.

**Three-tier ingestion:**
- `history.record_winner(&K, &K, T)` / `record_draw(&K, &K, T)` — 1v1 convenience.
- `history.add_events(iter)` — typed bulk.
- `history.event(T).team([...]).weights([...]).ranking([...]).commit()` — fluent.

**Query API:** `current_skill`, `learning_curve`, `learning_curves` (keyed on `K`), `log_evidence`, `log_evidence_for`, `predict_quality`, `predict_outcome`.

**Game constructors:** `ranked`, `one_v_one`, `free_for_all`, `custom` — all returning `Result<_, InferenceError>`.

**`factors` module:** `Factor`, `Schedule`, `VarStore`, `VarId`, `BuiltinFactor`, `EpsilonOrMax`, `ScheduleReport`, `TeamSumFactor`, `RankDiffFactor`, `TruncFactor` now public.

**Errors:** `InferenceError` gains `MismatchedShape`, `InvalidProbability`, `ConvergenceFailed`; boundary panics converted to `Result`.

**Removed (breaking):** `History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose)`, `HistoryBuilder::gamma(f64)`, `HistoryBuilder::time(bool)`, `History.time: bool`, `learning_curves_by_index`, nested-Vec public `add_events`.

## Behavior change (documented in CHANGELOG)

`Time = Untimed` has `elapsed_to → 0`, so no drift accumulates between slices. The old `time=false` mode implicitly forced `elapsed=1` on reappearance via an `i64::MAX` sentinel — that quirk is not reproducible under a typed time axis. Tests that depended on it now use `History::<i64, _>` with explicit `1..=n` timestamps. One test (`test_env_ttt`) had 3 Gaussian goldens updated to reflect the corrected semantics; documented in commit `33a7d90`.

## Final numbers

| Metric | Before T0 | After T2 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Batch::iteration` | 29.84 µs | 21.36 µs | **-28%** |
| `Gaussian::mul` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| `Gaussian::div` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| Tests passing | 38 | 90 | +52 |

All other Gaussian ops unchanged (~219 ps add/sub, ~264 ps pi/tau reads).

## Test plan

- [x] `cargo test --features approx` — 90/90 pass (68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner + 2 equivalence)
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo +nightly fmt --check` — clean
- [x] `cargo bench --bench batch` — 21.36 µs
- [x] `cargo bench --bench gaussian` — unchanged from T1
- [x] `cargo run --example atp --features approx` — rewritten in new API, runs clean
- [x] Historical Game-level goldens preserved in `tests/equivalence.rs`
- [x] Public API matches spec Section 4 (verified by integration tests in `tests/api_shape.rs`)

## Commit history

~45 commits total across T0 + T1 + T2. Each task is self-contained and individually tested; the branch is bisectable. See `git log main..t2-new-api-surface` for the full list.

## Deferred to later tiers

- `Outcome::Scored` + `MarginFactor` — T4
- `Damped` / `Residual` schedules — T4
- `Send + Sync` bounds + Rayon parallelism — T3
- N-team `predict_outcome` — T4
- `Game::custom` full ergonomics — T4

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Reviewed-on: #1
Co-authored-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
Co-committed-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
2026-04-24 11:20:04 +00:00

133 lines
3.1 KiB
Rust

//! Typed event description for bulk ingestion.
//!
//! `Event<T, K>` is the new public event shape (spec Section 4). Replaces
//! the nested `Vec<Vec<Vec<Index>>>`, `Vec<Vec<f64>>`, `Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>`
//! that the old `add_events_with_prior` took.
use smallvec::SmallVec;
use crate::{gaussian::Gaussian, outcome::Outcome, time::Time};
/// A single match at time `time` involving some number of teams.
#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
pub struct Event<T: Time, K> {
pub time: T,
pub teams: SmallVec<[Team<K>; 4]>,
pub outcome: Outcome,
}
/// A team: list of members competing together.
#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
pub struct Team<K> {
pub members: SmallVec<[Member<K>; 4]>,
}
impl<K> Team<K> {
pub fn new() -> Self {
Self {
members: SmallVec::new(),
}
}
pub fn with_members<I: IntoIterator<Item = Member<K>>>(members: I) -> Self {
Self {
members: members.into_iter().collect(),
}
}
}
impl<K> Default for Team<K> {
fn default() -> Self {
Self::new()
}
}
/// One member of a team, identified by user key `K`.
///
/// `weight` defaults to 1.0; a per-event `prior` can override the competitor's
/// current skill estimate for this event only.
#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
pub struct Member<K> {
pub key: K,
pub weight: f64,
pub prior: Option<Gaussian>,
}
impl<K> Member<K> {
pub fn new(key: K) -> Self {
Self {
key,
weight: 1.0,
prior: None,
}
}
pub fn with_weight(mut self, weight: f64) -> Self {
self.weight = weight;
self
}
pub fn with_prior(mut self, prior: Gaussian) -> Self {
self.prior = Some(prior);
self
}
}
/// Convenience: a member is a user key with default weight 1.0 and no prior.
impl<K> From<K> for Member<K> {
fn from(key: K) -> Self {
Self::new(key)
}
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
use crate::Outcome;
#[test]
fn member_new_has_unit_weight_no_prior() {
let m = Member::new("alice");
assert_eq!(m.key, "alice");
assert_eq!(m.weight, 1.0);
assert!(m.prior.is_none());
}
#[test]
fn member_builder_methods_chain() {
let m = Member::new("alice")
.with_weight(0.5)
.with_prior(Gaussian::from_ms(20.0, 5.0));
assert_eq!(m.weight, 0.5);
assert!(m.prior.is_some());
}
#[test]
fn member_from_key() {
let m: Member<&str> = "bob".into();
assert_eq!(m.key, "bob");
assert_eq!(m.weight, 1.0);
}
#[test]
fn team_with_members_collects() {
let t: Team<&str> = Team::with_members([Member::new("a"), Member::new("b")]);
assert_eq!(t.members.len(), 2);
}
#[test]
fn event_construction() {
use smallvec::smallvec;
let e: Event<i64, &str> = Event {
time: 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
],
outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
};
assert_eq!(e.teams.len(), 2);
assert_eq!(e.time, 1);
}
}