Files
trueskill-tt/src/outcome.rs
T
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 f4e2922d59 fix: reject ties without draw probability; never report NaN as converged
A tie with `p_draw == 0.0` produced NaN posteriors in release builds and
`converge()` reported `converged: true`, because every comparison against
NaN is false and `tuple_gt` therefore read NaN as "below epsilon".

Two independent defects, fixed together:

- Ingestion now rejects tied outcomes when the draw probability is zero,
  promoting the existing `debug_assert!` in `Game::ranked_with_arena` to a
  real `InferenceError::TieWithoutDrawProbability`. Validation sits in
  `add_events_with_prior`, the chokepoint every route reaches — including
  `record_draw`, which bypasses `Outcome` entirely.
- `converge()` treats a non-finite step as failure and returns
  `InferenceError::NonFiniteResult` rather than claiming convergence.

Also in this change:

- `History::converge()` on an empty history returned a `usize` underflow
  panic from `0..len()-1`; it now short-circuits to a zero-iteration report.
- `Outcome::scores_with_sigma` no longer panics on a non-positive sigma;
  the value is validated at ingestion so callers get an error instead.
- `InferenceError` gains `WrongOutcomeKind`, replacing the misuse of
  `MismatchedShape` for variant mismatches (which rendered as the nonsense
  "expected length 0, got 0"), and is now `#[non_exhaustive]`.

Note `Outcome::winner(w, n)` for n >= 3 ties every loser, so those events
now require a positive `p_draw`. They previously returned NaN.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01DnsaJg74eNSva3PJjK2eej
2026-08-04 21:38:29 +02:00

186 lines
5.7 KiB
Rust

//! Outcome of a match.
//!
//! `Ranked(ranks)` for ordinal results; `Scored { scores, sigma }` for
//! continuous per-team scores (engages `MarginFactor` in the engine).
use smallvec::SmallVec;
/// Final outcome of a match.
///
/// `Ranked(ranks)`: lower rank = better. Equal ranks mean a tie between those
/// teams. `ranks.len()` must equal the number of teams in the event.
///
/// `Scored { scores, sigma }`: higher score = better. Adjacent (sorted) pairs
/// feed observed margins to `MarginFactor`. `scores.len()` must equal the
/// number of teams in the event. `sigma` overrides `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma`
/// when `Some`; `None` inherits the history default.
#[derive(Clone, Debug, PartialEq)]
#[non_exhaustive]
pub enum Outcome {
Ranked(SmallVec<[u32; 4]>),
Scored {
scores: SmallVec<[f64; 4]>,
/// Per-event noise override. `None` means inherit
/// `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma`. Must be `> 0.0` if `Some`.
sigma: Option<f64>,
},
}
impl Outcome {
/// `n`-team outcome where team `winner` won and everyone else tied for last.
///
/// Panics if `winner >= n`.
pub fn winner(winner: u32, n: u32) -> Self {
assert!(winner < n, "winner index {winner} out of range 0..{n}");
let ranks: SmallVec<[u32; 4]> = (0..n).map(|i| if i == winner { 0 } else { 1 }).collect();
Self::Ranked(ranks)
}
/// All `n` teams tied.
pub fn draw(n: u32) -> Self {
Self::Ranked(SmallVec::from_vec(vec![0; n as usize]))
}
/// Explicit per-team ranking.
pub fn ranking<I: IntoIterator<Item = u32>>(ranks: I) -> Self {
Self::Ranked(ranks.into_iter().collect())
}
/// Explicit per-team continuous scores; higher = better.
/// Inherits `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma` for the noise model.
pub fn scores<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(scores: I) -> Self {
Self::Scored {
scores: scores.into_iter().collect(),
sigma: None,
}
}
/// Explicit per-team continuous scores with a per-event noise override.
///
/// `sigma` must be `> 0.0`. Constructing an `Outcome` with a non-positive
/// or NaN sigma is allowed; the value is rejected with
/// `InferenceError::InvalidParameter` when the event is ingested, so
/// callers get an error rather than a panic.
pub fn scores_with_sigma<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(scores: I, sigma: f64) -> Self {
Self::Scored {
scores: scores.into_iter().collect(),
sigma: Some(sigma),
}
}
pub fn team_count(&self) -> usize {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => r.len(),
Self::Scored { scores, .. } => scores.len(),
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_ranks(&self) -> Option<&[u32]> {
match self {
Self::Ranked(r) => Some(r),
Self::Scored { .. } => None,
}
}
pub(crate) fn as_scores(&self) -> Option<&[f64]> {
match self {
Self::Scored { scores, .. } => Some(scores),
Self::Ranked(_) => None,
}
}
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
#[test]
fn winner_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 1][..]));
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
}
#[test]
fn winner_three_teams_second_wins() {
let o = Outcome::winner(1, 3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[1u32, 0, 1][..]));
}
#[test]
fn draw_three_teams() {
let o = Outcome::draw(3);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[0u32, 0, 0][..]));
}
#[test]
fn ranking_from_iter() {
let o = Outcome::ranking([2, 0, 1]);
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), Some(&[2u32, 0, 1][..]));
}
#[test]
#[should_panic(expected = "winner index 2 out of range")]
fn winner_out_of_range_panics() {
let _ = Outcome::winner(2, 2);
}
#[test]
fn scored_two_teams() {
let o = Outcome::scores([10.0, 4.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_scores(), Some(&[10.0, 4.0][..]));
assert_eq!(o.as_ranks(), None);
}
#[test]
fn scored_team_count_matches_input() {
let o = Outcome::scores([3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0]);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 4);
}
#[test]
fn ranked_as_scores_returns_none() {
let o = Outcome::winner(0, 2);
assert!(o.as_scores().is_none());
assert!(o.as_ranks().is_some());
}
#[test]
fn scores_with_sigma_round_trips() {
let o = Outcome::scores_with_sigma([10.0, 4.0], 0.5);
assert_eq!(o.team_count(), 2);
assert_eq!(o.as_scores(), Some(&[10.0, 4.0][..]));
}
#[test]
fn scores_constructor_leaves_sigma_unset() {
let o = Outcome::scores([3.0, 1.0]);
match o {
Outcome::Scored { scores: _, sigma } => assert!(sigma.is_none()),
Outcome::Ranked(_) => panic!("expected Scored variant"),
}
}
#[test]
fn scores_with_sigma_sets_sigma_some() {
let o = Outcome::scores_with_sigma([3.0, 1.0], 2.0);
match o {
Outcome::Scored { scores: _, sigma } => assert_eq!(sigma, Some(2.0)),
Outcome::Ranked(_) => panic!("expected Scored variant"),
}
}
/// Construction accepts any sigma; the value is validated at ingestion so
/// callers receive an `InferenceError` rather than a panic. See
/// `tests/degenerate_inputs.rs::scored_event_rejects_non_positive_sigma`.
#[test]
fn scores_with_sigma_defers_validation_to_ingestion() {
let o = Outcome::scores_with_sigma([3.0, 1.0], 0.0);
match o {
Outcome::Scored { sigma, .. } => assert_eq!(sigma, Some(0.0)),
Outcome::Ranked(_) => panic!("expected Scored variant"),
}
}
}