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trueskill-tt/src/gaussian.rs
Anders Olsson d2aab82c1e T0 + T1 + T2: engine redesign through new API surface (#1)
Implements tiers T0, T1, T2 of `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`. All three tiers have landed together on this branch because they build on one another; this PR rolls them up for a single review pass.

Per-tier plans:
- T0: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-23-t0-numerical-parity.md`
- T1: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t1-factor-graph.md`
- T2: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t2-new-api-surface.md`

## Summary

### T0 — Numerical parity (internal)

- `Gaussian` switched to natural-parameter storage `(pi, tau)`; mul/div now ~7× faster (218 ps vs 1.57 ns).
- `HashMap<Index, _>` → dense `Vec<_>` keyed by `Index.0` (via `AgentStore<D>`, `SkillStore`).
- `ScratchArena` eliminates per-event allocations in `Game::likelihoods`.
- `InferenceError` seed type added (1 variant).
- 38 → 53 tests passing through T1.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 29.84 → 21.25 µs.

### T1 — Factor graph machinery (internal)

- `Factor` trait + `BuiltinFactor` enum (TeamSum / RankDiff / Trunc) driving within-game inference.
- `VarStore` flat storage for variable marginals.
- `Schedule` trait + `EpsilonOrMax` impl replacing the hand-rolled EP loop.
- `Game::likelihoods` rebuilt on the factor-graph machinery; iteration counts and goldens preserved to within 1e-6.
- 53 tests passing.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 23.01 µs (slight regression absorbed in T2).

### T2 — New API surface (breaking)

**Renames:**
- `IndexMap → KeyTable`, `Player → Rating`, `Agent → Competitor`, `Batch → TimeSlice`

**New types:**
- `Time` trait with `Untimed` ZST and `i64` impls; `Drift<T>`, `Rating<T, D>`, `Competitor<T, D>`, `TimeSlice<T>`, `History<T, D, O, K>` all generic.
- `Event<T, K>`, `Team<K>`, `Member<K>`, `Outcome` (`Ranked` variant; `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Observer<T>` trait + `NullObserver`.
- `ConvergenceOptions`, `ConvergenceReport`.
- `GameOptions`, `OwnedGame<T, D>`.

**Three-tier ingestion:**
- `history.record_winner(&K, &K, T)` / `record_draw(&K, &K, T)` — 1v1 convenience.
- `history.add_events(iter)` — typed bulk.
- `history.event(T).team([...]).weights([...]).ranking([...]).commit()` — fluent.

**Query API:** `current_skill`, `learning_curve`, `learning_curves` (keyed on `K`), `log_evidence`, `log_evidence_for`, `predict_quality`, `predict_outcome`.

**Game constructors:** `ranked`, `one_v_one`, `free_for_all`, `custom` — all returning `Result<_, InferenceError>`.

**`factors` module:** `Factor`, `Schedule`, `VarStore`, `VarId`, `BuiltinFactor`, `EpsilonOrMax`, `ScheduleReport`, `TeamSumFactor`, `RankDiffFactor`, `TruncFactor` now public.

**Errors:** `InferenceError` gains `MismatchedShape`, `InvalidProbability`, `ConvergenceFailed`; boundary panics converted to `Result`.

**Removed (breaking):** `History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose)`, `HistoryBuilder::gamma(f64)`, `HistoryBuilder::time(bool)`, `History.time: bool`, `learning_curves_by_index`, nested-Vec public `add_events`.

## Behavior change (documented in CHANGELOG)

`Time = Untimed` has `elapsed_to → 0`, so no drift accumulates between slices. The old `time=false` mode implicitly forced `elapsed=1` on reappearance via an `i64::MAX` sentinel — that quirk is not reproducible under a typed time axis. Tests that depended on it now use `History::<i64, _>` with explicit `1..=n` timestamps. One test (`test_env_ttt`) had 3 Gaussian goldens updated to reflect the corrected semantics; documented in commit `33a7d90`.

## Final numbers

| Metric | Before T0 | After T2 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Batch::iteration` | 29.84 µs | 21.36 µs | **-28%** |
| `Gaussian::mul` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| `Gaussian::div` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| Tests passing | 38 | 90 | +52 |

All other Gaussian ops unchanged (~219 ps add/sub, ~264 ps pi/tau reads).

## Test plan

- [x] `cargo test --features approx` — 90/90 pass (68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner + 2 equivalence)
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo +nightly fmt --check` — clean
- [x] `cargo bench --bench batch` — 21.36 µs
- [x] `cargo bench --bench gaussian` — unchanged from T1
- [x] `cargo run --example atp --features approx` — rewritten in new API, runs clean
- [x] Historical Game-level goldens preserved in `tests/equivalence.rs`
- [x] Public API matches spec Section 4 (verified by integration tests in `tests/api_shape.rs`)

## Commit history

~45 commits total across T0 + T1 + T2. Each task is self-contained and individually tested; the branch is bisectable. See `git log main..t2-new-api-surface` for the full list.

## Deferred to later tiers

- `Outcome::Scored` + `MarginFactor` — T4
- `Damped` / `Residual` schedules — T4
- `Send + Sync` bounds + Rayon parallelism — T3
- N-team `predict_outcome` — T4
- `Game::custom` full ergonomics — T4

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Reviewed-on: #1
Co-authored-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
Co-committed-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
2026-04-24 11:20:04 +00:00

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use std::ops;
use crate::{MU, N_INF, SIGMA};
/// A Gaussian distribution stored in natural parameters.
///
/// `pi = 1 / sigma^2` (precision)
/// `tau = mu * pi` (precision-adjusted mean)
///
/// Multiplication and division in message passing become pure adds/subs of
/// the stored fields with no `sqrt` or reciprocal in the hot path. `mu()` and
/// `sigma()` are accessors computed on demand.
#[derive(Clone, Copy, PartialEq, Debug)]
pub struct Gaussian {
pi: f64,
tau: f64,
}
impl Gaussian {
/// Construct from mean and standard deviation.
pub const fn from_ms(mu: f64, sigma: f64) -> Self {
if sigma == f64::INFINITY {
Self { pi: 0.0, tau: 0.0 }
} else if sigma == 0.0 {
// Point mass at mu. tau = mu * pi = mu * inf.
// For mu == 0 this is 0; for mu != 0 it is inf * mu = inf (IEEE).
// Only N00 (mu=0, sigma=0) is used in practice.
Self {
pi: f64::INFINITY,
tau: if mu == 0.0 { 0.0 } else { f64::INFINITY },
}
} else {
let pi = 1.0 / (sigma * sigma);
Self { pi, tau: mu * pi }
}
}
/// Construct directly from natural parameters.
#[inline]
pub(crate) const fn from_natural(pi: f64, tau: f64) -> Self {
Self { pi, tau }
}
#[inline]
pub fn pi(&self) -> f64 {
self.pi
}
#[inline]
pub fn tau(&self) -> f64 {
self.tau
}
#[inline]
pub fn mu(&self) -> f64 {
if self.pi == 0.0 {
0.0
} else {
self.tau / self.pi
}
}
#[inline]
pub fn sigma(&self) -> f64 {
if self.pi == 0.0 {
f64::INFINITY
} else if self.pi.is_infinite() {
0.0
} else {
1.0 / self.pi.sqrt()
}
}
pub(crate) fn delta(&self, other: Gaussian) -> (f64, f64) {
(
(self.mu() - other.mu()).abs(),
(self.sigma() - other.sigma()).abs(),
)
}
pub(crate) fn exclude(&self, other: Gaussian) -> Self {
let var = self.sigma().powi(2) - other.sigma().powi(2);
if var <= 0.0 {
// When sigma_self ≈ sigma_other (including ULP-level rounding differences
// from the pi→sigma accessor round-trip), the excluded contribution is N00.
// Computing from_ms(tiny_mu, 0.0) would give {pi:inf, tau:inf}, whose
// mu() = inf/inf = NaN. Returning N00 is correct: when both Gaussians
// carry the same variance, the residual is a point mass at 0.
return Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 0.0);
}
let mu = self.mu() - other.mu();
Self::from_ms(mu, var.sqrt())
}
pub(crate) fn forget(&self, variance_delta: f64) -> Self {
let var = self.sigma().powi(2) + variance_delta;
Self::from_ms(self.mu(), var.sqrt())
}
}
impl Default for Gaussian {
fn default() -> Self {
Self::from_ms(MU, SIGMA)
}
}
impl ops::Add<Gaussian> for Gaussian {
type Output = Gaussian;
/// Variance addition: (mu1 + mu2, sqrt(σ1² + σ2²)).
/// Used for combining performance and noise; rare relative to mul/div.
fn add(self, rhs: Gaussian) -> Self::Output {
let mu = self.mu() + rhs.mu();
let var = self.sigma().powi(2) + rhs.sigma().powi(2);
Self::from_ms(mu, var.sqrt())
}
}
impl ops::Sub<Gaussian> for Gaussian {
type Output = Gaussian;
/// (mu1 - mu2, sqrt(σ1² + σ2²)). Same sigma combination as Add.
fn sub(self, rhs: Gaussian) -> Self::Output {
let mu = self.mu() - rhs.mu();
let var = self.sigma().powi(2) + rhs.sigma().powi(2);
Self::from_ms(mu, var.sqrt())
}
}
impl ops::Mul<Gaussian> for Gaussian {
type Output = Gaussian;
/// Factor product: nat-param add. Hot path — two f64 additions, no sqrt.
fn mul(self, rhs: Gaussian) -> Self::Output {
Self::from_natural(self.pi + rhs.pi, self.tau + rhs.tau)
}
}
impl ops::Mul<f64> for Gaussian {
type Output = Gaussian;
fn mul(self, scalar: f64) -> Self::Output {
if !scalar.is_finite() {
return N_INF;
}
if scalar == 0.0 {
// Scaling by 0 collapses to a point mass at 0 (sigma' = 0, mu' = 0).
// This is N00, the additive identity, NOT N_INF.
return Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 0.0);
}
// sigma' = sigma * |scalar| => pi' = pi / scalar²
// mu' = mu * scalar => tau' = tau / scalar
Self::from_natural(self.pi / (scalar * scalar), self.tau / scalar)
}
}
impl ops::Div<Gaussian> for Gaussian {
type Output = Gaussian;
/// Cavity: nat-param sub. Hot path — two f64 subtractions, no sqrt.
fn div(self, rhs: Gaussian) -> Self::Output {
Self::from_natural(self.pi - rhs.pi, self.tau - rhs.tau)
}
}
#[cfg(test)]
mod tests {
use super::*;
#[test]
fn test_add() {
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 1.0);
let r = n + m;
assert!((r.mu() - 25.0).abs() < 1e-12);
assert!((r.sigma() - 8.393118874676116).abs() < 1e-10);
}
#[test]
fn test_sub() {
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(1.0, 1.0);
let r = n - m;
assert!((r.mu() - 24.0).abs() < 1e-12);
assert!((r.sigma() - 8.393118874676116).abs() < 1e-10);
}
#[test]
fn test_mul() {
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 1.0);
let r = n * m;
assert!((r.mu() - 0.35488958990536273).abs() < 1e-10);
assert!((r.sigma() - 0.992876838486922).abs() < 1e-10);
}
#[test]
fn test_div() {
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, 25.0 / 3.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 1.0);
let r = m / n;
assert!((r.mu() - (-0.3652597402597402)).abs() < 1e-10);
assert!((r.sigma() - 1.0072787050317253).abs() < 1e-10);
}
#[test]
fn test_n00_is_add_identity() {
// N00 (sigma=0) is the additive identity for the variance-convolution Add op.
// N_INF (sigma=inf) is the identity for the EP-product Mul op.
let g = Gaussian::from_ms(3.0, 2.0);
let n00 = Gaussian::from_ms(0.0, 0.0);
let r = n00 + g;
assert!((r.mu() - g.mu()).abs() < 1e-12);
assert!((r.sigma() - g.sigma()).abs() < 1e-12);
}
#[test]
fn test_mul_is_factor_product() {
// n * m in nat-params should be pi_n + pi_m, tau_n + tau_m
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(2.0, 3.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(1.0, 2.0);
let r = n * m;
let expected_pi = n.pi() + m.pi();
let expected_tau = n.tau() + m.tau();
assert!((r.pi() - expected_pi).abs() < 1e-15);
assert!((r.tau() - expected_tau).abs() < 1e-15);
}
#[test]
fn test_div_is_cavity() {
let n = Gaussian::from_ms(2.0, 1.0);
let m = Gaussian::from_ms(1.0, 2.0);
let r = n / m;
let expected_pi = n.pi() - m.pi();
let expected_tau = n.tau() - m.tau();
assert!((r.pi() - expected_pi).abs() < 1e-15);
assert!((r.tau() - expected_tau).abs() < 1e-15);
}
}