Files
trueskill-tt/benches/history_converge.rs
T
logaritmiskandClaude Opus 5 c12bc830a5 feat!: name the unknown key, expose tail probabilities, flag short fits
Three issues from two downstream consumers, all small, all sharing a
theme: the crate had the information and would not hand it over.

#44 — `UnknownKey { team: 0, member: 0 }` did not say which key. A
consumer upgrading 0.1.2 -> 0.4.1 had every one of 5591 predictions
return this error, fell back to a neutral 0.5, and lost its entire
metadata model for a day. Nothing crashed and nothing logged; it was
found by sweeping an unrelated parameter and noticing the output did not
move. The 0.4.0 change that made unknown keys an error was right — the
error was just too anonymous to act on. It now carries the key's `Debug`
rendering, and its `Display` says what to do about it. The precondition
is documented on every prediction entry point, which the reporter said
would alone have saved the day.

#43 — `cdf` was `pub(crate)`, so a consumer asking "is this competitor
below the cutoff" approximated it with a `mu + z * sigma` band and had no
way to say what confidence any `z` bought. Adds
`Gaussian::probability_below` / `probability_above`. The second is
separate on purpose: `1 - cdf` collapses to exactly zero past ~8.3
sigma, and a stopping rule is evaluated precisely there. Both route
through the survival function added in 0.4.1, so this is visibility
rather than new numerics.

#50 — `ConvergenceReport` was not `#[must_use]`, so the one signal that
a fit stopped short was trivially discarded. It now is, and that
immediately found 78 sites doing exactly that — including this crate's
own ATP example, which was capped at 10 sweeps when the history needs
30. The example now reads the report and says so.

`ITERATIONS = 30` is documented as the floor it is, with the three
measurements to hand: 400 events over 100 competitors already stops
there at ~7e-3 against a 1e-6 tolerance, the ATP example needs 30 at a
much looser one, and a consumer's 2000-node model needs 76 to 161.

BREAKING CHANGE: `InferenceError::UnknownKey` gains a `key` field, and
the prediction methods now require `K: Debug` in order to fill it.

Closes #43, #50. Refs #44 — its third ask, an opt-in `UnknownKeys::Skip`
mode, is a live API question and deliberately not answered here.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
2026-09-07 23:41:03 +02:00

118 lines
4.4 KiB
Rust
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters
This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.
//! End-to-end History::converge benchmark.
//!
//! Workload shapes designed to expose rayon's within-slice color-group
//! parallelism. Events in the same color group are processed in parallel
//! via direct-write with disjoint index sets (no data races). Color groups
//! smaller than a threshold fall back to the sequential path to avoid
//! rayon overhead on small workloads.
//!
//! On Apple M5 Pro, the P-core count (6) is the optimal thread count.
//! The rayon thread pool is initialised to `min(P-cores, available)` to
//! avoid scheduling onto the slower E-cores.
//!
//! ## Results (Apple M5 Pro, 2026-04-24, after SmallVec revert)
//!
//! | Workload | Sequential | Parallel | Speedup |
//! |---------------------------------------------|------------:|-----------:|--------:|
//! | History::converge/500x100@10perslice | 4.03 ms | 4.24 ms | 1.0× |
//! | History::converge/2000x200@20perslice | 20.18 ms | 19.82 ms | 1.0× |
//! | History::converge/1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice| 11.88 ms | 9.10 ms | 1.3× |
//!
//! T3 acceptance gate: ≥2× speedup on at least one workload — NOT achieved after revert.
//! The SmallVec storage that enabled the 2× gate caused a +28% regression in the
//! sequential Batch::iteration benchmark and was reverted. Small workloads still fall
//! below the RAYON_THRESHOLD (64 events/color) and run sequentially with near-zero overhead.
use criterion::{BatchSize, Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{
ConstantDrift, ConvergenceOptions, Event, History, Member, NullObserver, Outcome, Team,
};
fn build_history_1v1(
n_events: usize,
n_competitors: usize,
events_per_slice: usize,
seed: u64,
) -> History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, String> {
let mut rng = seed;
let mut next = || {
rng = rng
.wrapping_mul(6364136223846793005)
.wrapping_add(1442695040888963407);
rng
};
let mut h = History::<i64, _, _, String>::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(25.0 / 300.0))
.convergence(ConvergenceOptions {
max_iter: 30,
epsilon: 1e-6,
alpha: 1.0,
})
.build();
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(n_events);
for ev_i in 0..n_events {
let a = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
let mut b = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
while b == a {
b = (next() as usize) % n_competitors;
}
events.push(Event {
time: (ev_i as i64 / events_per_slice as i64) + 1,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{a}"))]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(format!("p{b}"))]),
],
outcome: Outcome::winner((next() % 2) as u32, 2),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h
}
fn bench_converge(c: &mut Criterion) {
// Two original task workloads (small per-slice event count;
// fall below RAYON_THRESHOLD so sequential path runs — near-zero overhead).
c.bench_function("History::converge/500x100@10perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(500, 100, 10, 42),
|mut h| {
let _ = h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
c.bench_function("History::converge/2000x200@20perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(2000, 200, 20, 42),
|mut h| {
let _ = h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
// Large single-slice workload: 5000 events, 50000 competitors.
// All events in one slice → color-0 gets ~4900 disjoint events, well above
// the 64-event RAYON_THRESHOLD. 30 iterations × 1 slice = 30 sweeps, each
// parallelised across P-core threads. Shows ≥2× speedup.
c.bench_function("History::converge/1v1-5000x50000@5000perslice", |b| {
b.iter_batched(
|| build_history_1v1(5000, 50000, 5000, 42),
|mut h| {
let _ = h.converge().unwrap();
},
BatchSize::SmallInput,
);
});
}
criterion_group!(benches, bench_converge);
criterion_main!(benches);