CHANGELOG.md

@@ -2,6 +2,90 @@
 
 All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 
+## Unreleased — T2 new API surface
+
+Breaking: every renamed type and the new public API land together per
+`docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`
+Section 7 "T2".
+
+### Breaking renames
+
+- `Batch` → `TimeSlice`
+- `Player` → `Rating` (and the `.player` field on `Competitor` is now `.rating`)
+- `Agent` → `Competitor`
+- `IndexMap` → `KeyTable`
+- `History` field `.batches` → `.time_slices`
+
+### New types
+
+- `Time` trait with `Untimed` ZST and `i64` impls (generic time axis).
+- `Drift<T: Time>` — generified from the old `Drift` trait.
+- `Event<T, K>`, `Team<K>`, `Member<K>` — typed bulk-ingest event shape.
+- `Outcome` (`#[non_exhaustive]`) — `Ranked(SmallVec<[u32; 4]>)` with convenience
+  constructors `winner`, `draw`, `ranking`. `Scored` lands in T4.
+- `Observer<T: Time>` trait + `NullObserver` ZST — structured progress callbacks.
+- `ConvergenceOptions`, `ConvergenceReport` — configuration and post-hoc summary.
+- `GameOptions`, `OwnedGame<T, D>` — ergonomic Game constructors without lifetime
+  gymnastics.
+- `factors` module — re-exports `Factor`, `BuiltinFactor`, `VarId`, `VarStore`,
+  `Schedule`, `EpsilonOrMax`, `ScheduleReport`, and the three built-in factor types
+  (`TeamSumFactor`, `RankDiffFactor`, `TruncFactor`) as public API.
+
+### New `History` API
+
+- Three-tier ingestion:
+  - Tier 1 (bulk): `add_events<I: IntoIterator<Item = Event<T, K>>>(events) -> Result`
+  - Tier 2 (one-off): `record_winner(&K, &K, T)`, `record_draw(&K, &K, T)`
+  - Tier 3 (fluent): `event(T).team([...]).weights([...]).ranking([...]).commit()`
+- `converge() -> Result<ConvergenceReport, InferenceError>` — replaces
+  `convergence(iters, eps, verbose)`.
+- `current_skill(&K)`, `learning_curve(&K)`, `learning_curves()` (now keyed on `K`).
+- `log_evidence()` zero-arg, `log_evidence_for(&[&K])`.
+- `predict_quality(&[&[&K]])`, `predict_outcome(&[&[&K]])` (2-team only in T2;
+  N-team deferred to T4).
+- `intern(&Q)` / `lookup(&Q)` expose the internal `KeyTable<K>` for power users.
+- `History<T, D, O, K>` is now fully generic with defaults
+  `<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str>`.
+
+### New `Game` API
+
+- `Game::ranked(&[&[Rating]], Outcome, &GameOptions) -> Result<OwnedGame, _>`.
+- `Game::one_v_one(&Rating, &Rating, Outcome) -> Result<(Gaussian, Gaussian), _>`.
+- `Game::free_for_all(&[&Rating], Outcome, &GameOptions) -> Result<OwnedGame, _>`.
+- `Game::custom(...)` minimal escape hatch for user-defined factor graphs
+  (`#[doc(hidden)]` — full ergonomics in T4).
+- `Game::log_evidence()` and `OwnedGame::log_evidence()` accessors.
+
+### Errors
+
+- `InferenceError` now carries `MismatchedShape { kind, expected, got }`,
+  `InvalidProbability { value }`, `ConvergenceFailed { last_step, iterations }`,
+  and `NegativePrecision { pi }`. Shape and bounds validation at the API boundary
+  now returns `Err` rather than panicking.
+
+### Removed (breaking)
+
+- `History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose)` — use `converge()`.
+- `HistoryBuilder::gamma(f64)` — use `.drift(ConstantDrift(g))`.
+- `HistoryBuilder::time(bool)` and `History.time: bool` — use the `Time` type parameter.
+- The nested-`Vec<Vec<Vec<_>>>` public `add_events` signature —
+  use typed `add_events(iter)`.
+- `learning_curves_by_index()` — use `learning_curves()`.
+
+### Performance
+
+`Batch::iteration` bench: **21.36 µs** (T1 was 22.88 µs on the same hardware, a
+~7% improvement from the typed-path being slightly more direct). Gaussian
+operations unchanged.
+
+### Notes
+
+- `Time = Untimed` returns `elapsed_to → 0` — **behavior change** from the old
+  `time=false` mode, which implicitly generated `elapsed=1` per event via an
+  `i64::MAX` sentinel in `Agent.last_time`. Tests that relied on the old
+  `time=false` semantics now use `History::<i64, _>` with explicit
+  `1..=n` timestamps.
+
 ## 0.1.0 - 2026-04-23
 
 ### Features

benches/baseline.txt

@@ -65,3 +65,36 @@ Gaussian::pi_tau_combined 234.xx ps    (unchanged)
 # - Gaussian operations unchanged vs T0.
 # - All 53 tests pass. factor graph infrastructure (VarStore, Factor trait,
 #   BuiltinFactor, TruncFactor, EpsilonOrMax schedule) in place for T2.
+
+# After T2 (2026-04-24, same hardware)
+
+Batch::iteration           21.36 µs   (1.07× vs T1 22.88 µs — 7% improvement)
+Gaussian::add             218.97 ps    (unchanged)
+Gaussian::sub             218.58 ps    (unchanged)
+Gaussian::mul             218.59 ps    (unchanged)
+Gaussian::div             218.57 ps    (unchanged)
+Gaussian::pi              264.20 ps    (unchanged)
+Gaussian::tau             260.80 ps    (unchanged)
+
+# Notes:
+# - API-only tier; hot inference path unchanged. The 7% improvement on
+#   Batch::iteration likely comes from the typed add_events(iter) path
+#   being slightly more direct than the nested-Vec path it replaced
+#   (one less layer of composition construction per event).
+# - Public surface now matches spec Section 4:
+#     record_winner / record_draw / add_events(iter) / event(t).team().commit()
+#     converge() -> Result<ConvergenceReport, InferenceError>
+#     learning_curve(&K) / learning_curves() / current_skill(&K)
+#     log_evidence() / log_evidence_for(&[&K])
+#     predict_quality / predict_outcome
+#     Game::ranked / one_v_one / free_for_all / custom
+#     factors module (pub Factor/Schedule/VarStore/EpsilonOrMax/BuiltinFactor)
+# - Breaking type renames: Batch→TimeSlice, Player→Rating, Agent→Competitor,
+#   IndexMap→KeyTable.
+# - Generic over T: Time (default i64), D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>,
+#   K: Eq + Hash + Clone (default &'static str).
+# - Legacy removed: History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose),
+#   HistoryBuilder::gamma(), HistoryBuilder::time(bool), History::time field,
+#   learning_curves_by_index(), nested-Vec public add_events().
+# - 90 tests green: 68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner +
+#   2 equivalence.