chore: Release trueskill-tt version 0.2.0

The Rust ecosystem convention, and what kickscore, xy and saphyr already use —
kickscore being the closest sibling to this crate.

LICENSE-APACHE is the canonical 201-line Apache-2.0 text with the appendix
left as the unfilled template, which is the form Rust crates ship. LICENSE-MIT
carries the copyright line. Both are picked up by cargo automatically and
appear in the packaged crate.

This also unblocks the release workflow. `cargo publish` does not check the
license field when the target is an alternative registry, but cargo-release
does, and refuses outright:

    error: trueskill-tt is missing the following fields:
             license || license-file

--no-verify does not bypass it. So `just release` was inert without this,
whatever cargo publish alone would have accepted.

README gains the conventional dual-license section and the contribution note
that dedicates inbound contributions under the same terms.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01T5SYDExxL4vZgvunrcNSMc

.cargo/config.toml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+# `Cargo.toml` sets `publish = ["kellnr"]`, so `cargo publish` targets the
+# private registry and refuses crates.io. Cargo needs that registry's index
+# declared to resolve the name.
+#
+# Committed rather than left to a per-user `~/.cargo/config.toml` so the repo
+# is self-contained: a fresh clone, a new machine, or CI would otherwise fail
+# with
+#
+#   error: registry index was not found in any configuration: `kellnr`
+#
+# Index URL only — it is not a secret. Publish tokens live in
+# `~/.cargo/credentials.toml` (per-user, never committed) or, in CI, in
+# `CARGO_REGISTRIES_KELLNR_TOKEN`.
+[registries.kellnr]
+index = "sparse+https://crates.aceofba.se/api/v1/crates/"

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -2,6 +2,57 @@
 
 All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 
+## 0.2.0 - 2026-08-27
+
+### Breaking Changes
+
+- refactor!: remove the inert online flag
+
+### Bug Fixes
+
+- fix: reject ties without draw probability; never report NaN as converged
+- fix(quality): support any number of rating groups
+- fix(evidence): accumulate in log space and floor the per-link value
+- fix(history): stop reprocessing the slice that was just appended to
+- fix(rayon): remove the aliasing unsafe from the parallel sweep
+- fix: close out four small issues and pin #27's repro
+
+### Documentation
+
+- docs: refresh README and CLAUDE.md; add ingest benchmark
+- docs: spec for filtered (forward-only) estimates
+- docs: implementation plan for filtered estimates
+- docs: state filtered accessor cost and evidence semantics precisely
+- docs(cargo): correct the licence note — kellnr does not require one
+
+### Features
+
+- feat: add filtered_log_evidence
+- feat: add filtered learning curves
+
+### Miscellaneous Tasks
+
+- chore: add CI, crate metadata, and crate-level documentation
+- chore: target releases at the private kellnr registry
+- chore: keep the 48 MB ATP dataset out of the published crate
+- chore: dual-license MIT OR Apache-2.0
+
+### Performance
+
+- perf(gaussian): drop the sqrt round-trip from variance-space operations
+
+### Refactor
+
+- refactor: unify convergence defaults, validate builders, clear dead code
+
+### Styling
+
+- style: make NaN rejection explicit in score_sigma validation
+
+### Testing
+
+- test: pin the invariants that make filtered estimates trustworthy
+
 ## 0.1.2 - 2026-06-12
 
 ### Bug Fixes
@@ -32,6 +83,10 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 - feat(outcome): per-event score_sigma override on Outcome::Scored
 - feat(event_builder): expose scores_with_sigma fluent method
 
+### Miscellaneous Tasks
+
+- chore: Release trueskill-tt version 0.1.2
+
 ### Refactor
 
 - refactor: dedupe Game::likelihoods and likelihoods_scored via run_chain

Cargo.toml

@@ -1,18 +1,30 @@
 [package]
 name = "trueskill-tt"
-version = "0.1.2"
+version = "0.2.0"
 edition = "2024"
 rust-version = "1.85"
 description = "TrueSkill Through Time: Bayesian skill rating that tracks how skill evolves over time, via Gaussian message passing"
 repository = "https://git.aceofba.se/logaritmisk/trueskill-tt"
+authors = ["Anders Olsson"]
+# Publishing is restricted to the private kellnr registry; this also makes
+# an accidental `cargo publish` to crates.io a hard error rather than a
+# irreversible mistake. Index is declared in `.cargo/config.toml`.
+publish = ["kellnr"]
 readme = "README.md"
 keywords = ["trueskill", "rating", "bayesian", "elo", "skill"]
 categories = ["algorithms", "science", "game-development"]
-# TODO: pick a licence before publishing. `cargo publish` rejects a crate
-# without `license` (or `license-file`), and without one the source carries no
-# stated terms. The Rust convention is `license = "MIT OR Apache-2.0"` plus the
-# matching LICENSE-MIT / LICENSE-APACHE files.
-exclude = ["/docs", "/benches/*.txt", "/temp", "/.gitea"]
+license = "MIT OR Apache-2.0"
+# `examples/atp.csv` is a 48 MB tennis dataset — 99% of the packaged crate,
+# for a library whose source is 312 KB. `examples/atp.rs` opens it by
+# relative path at runtime, so excluding the data still compiles; the
+# example just needs the file fetched from the repo to run.
+exclude = [
+    "/docs",
+    "/benches/*.txt",
+    "/temp",
+    "/.gitea",
+    "/examples/atp.csv",
+]
 
 [lib]
 bench = false

Justfile

@@ -43,3 +43,49 @@ bench:
 
 flame:
     cargo flamegraph --root --example atp
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Release workflow
+#
+# Publishing goes to the private kellnr registry only: `Cargo.toml` sets
+# `publish = ["kellnr"]`, so an accidental `cargo publish` to crates.io is a
+# hard error rather than an irreversible mistake. The index is declared in the
+# committed `.cargo/config.toml`; the token is per-user and lives in
+# `~/.cargo/credentials.toml` (`cargo login --registry kellnr`).
+#
+#   Step 1:  just release-plan [level]   — dry run, no writes
+#   Step 2:  just release [level]        — bump, changelog, tag, publish, push
+#
+# LEVEL is the cargo-release bump level (default `minor`). On 0.x:
+#   minor -> breaking bump  (0.1.2 -> 0.2.0)   <- any public-API change
+#   patch -> additive only  (0.1.2 -> 0.1.3)
+#   major -> reserved for the 1.0.0 jump
+#
+# `release.toml` regenerates CHANGELOG.md with git-cliff in a pre-release hook
+# and keeps push = false; this recipe pushes last, after publish has succeeded.
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+# Dry-run preview of the next release. Inspect the version bump and the
+# "Publishing ..." line before running `just release`.
+release-plan level="minor":
+    cargo release {{level}}
+
+# Cut a release from a clean main: gate -> bump -> tag -> publish -> push.
+release level="minor":
+    #!/usr/bin/env bash
+    set -euo pipefail
+
+    if [[ "$(git branch --show-current)" != "main" ]]; then
+        echo "error: run 'just release' from the 'main' branch" >&2; exit 1
+    fi
+    if [[ -n "$(git status --porcelain)" ]]; then
+        echo "error: working tree is dirty — commit or stash first" >&2; exit 1
+    fi
+
+    # cargo-release only verify-compiles the packaged crate; it does not run the
+    # suite, and publishing is irreversible. Run the same gate CI does, which
+    # includes the release profile where debug_assert! is compiled out.
+    just ci
+
+    cargo release {{level}} --execute --no-confirm
+    git push --follow-tags

LICENSE-APACHE

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
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LICENSE-MIT

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+Copyright (c) 2026 Anders Olsson
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in
+all copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN
+THE SOFTWARE.

README.md

@@ -101,3 +101,20 @@ h.converge().unwrap();
 - [x] Add Observer (`Observer` / `NullObserver`)
 - [x] Benchmark the inference loop (`benches/batch.rs`, `benches/history_converge.rs`, `benches/ingest.rs`)
 - [ ] Cross-check `quality()` against [sublee/trueskill](https://github.com/sublee/trueskill/tree/master) — N-group support works and is covered by invariants, but no reference values are asserted
+
+## License
+
+Licensed under either of
+
+- Apache License, Version 2.0 ([LICENSE-APACHE](LICENSE-APACHE) or
+  <http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0>)
+- MIT license ([LICENSE-MIT](LICENSE-MIT) or
+  <http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT>)
+
+at your option.
+
+### Contribution
+
+Unless you explicitly state otherwise, any contribution intentionally submitted
+for inclusion in the work by you, as defined in the Apache-2.0 license, shall be
+dual licensed as above, without any additional terms or conditions.

cliff.toml

@@ -44,6 +44,11 @@ split_commits = false
 # Assigns commits to groups.
 # Optionally sets the commit's scope and can decide to exclude commits from further processing.
 commit_parsers = [
+    # Must precede the type parsers below: a `feat!`/`fix!`/`refactor!` subject
+    # matches those too, and the first match wins. Without this a breaking
+    # change renders as an ordinary line of its own type.
+    { message = "^[a-z]+(\\(.+\\))?!:", group = "Breaking Changes" },
+    { body = "BREAKING CHANGE", group = "Breaking Changes" },
     { message = "^feat", group = "Features" },
     { message = "^fix", group = "Bug Fixes" },
     { message = "^doc", group = "Documentation" },

docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-27-filtered-estimates-design.md

@@ -0,0 +1,342 @@
+# Filtered (Forward-Only) Estimates
+
+Closes [#19](https://git.aceofba.se/logaritmisk/trueskill-tt/issues/19).
+
+## Summary
+
+`HistoryBuilder::online(true)` is inert. It flips a flag that reaches
+`Item::within_prior` (`src/time_slice.rs:70-71`), which reads
+`Skill.online` (`src/time_slice.rs:25`) — a field initialised to `N_INF`
+(`src/time_slice.rs:41`) and never assigned anywhere. The online path
+therefore builds every rating from the improper Gaussian, and
+`log_evidence()` silently reports `n × ln(0.5)`: every game scored as a
+coin flip, finite and plausible-looking.
+
+This spec replaces the field and the flag with a **read-only forward-only
+pass** over the converged history, exposed as three new public methods.
+The pass reuses the production within-slice sweep verbatim rather than
+reimplementing inference, and stores nothing on `Skill`.
+
+## Background
+
+### Why a stored field cannot hold this quantity
+
+The issue proposes populating `skill.online` during the forward pass,
+alongside `new_forward_info` (`src/time_slice.rs:576`). That would not
+work, and understanding why determines the whole design.
+
+`new_forward_info` sets `skill.forward` from
+`agents[a].receive_for_elapsed(...)`, whose `message` was written by the
+previous slice's `forward_prior_out` (`src/time_slice.rs:549`):
+
+```rust
+skill.forward * skill.likelihood
+```
+
+`History::iteration` (`src/history.rs:255`) alternates a backward sweep
+over slices and a forward sweep. From the second iteration onward, the
+`skill.likelihood` feeding that message has already absorbed backward
+information from the preceding backward sweep. So after `converge()`,
+**`skill.forward` is a smoothed quantity, not a filtering one** — and any
+field written from it inherits the same contamination on every sweep
+after the first.
+
+### The neighbouring trap
+
+The same reasoning applies to the existing `forward: bool` parameter on
+`log_evidence_internal` (`src/history.rs:395`). It is a genuine filtering
+quantity only on a history that has never been converged. That is why the
+test at `src/history.rs:1183` can assert
+
+```rust
+assert_ulps_eq!(trueskill_log_evidence, trueskill_log_evidence_online, epsilon = 1e-6);
+```
+
+— the fixture is never converged, so the forward message still equals the
+cavity prior. (Note also that the local binding is named `..._online`
+while the flag it passes is `forward`; the two senses were already
+muddled.)
+
+Fixing `forward: bool` is **out of scope** here; see *Out-of-scope
+follow-ups*.
+
+### Why this is worth implementing rather than deleting
+
+The forward-only estimate has a second consumer beyond prequential model
+comparison. `learning_curve()` returns post-convergence posteriors, so
+every point is smoothed — the estimate at a given date incorporates
+rounds played years later. On [ustat](https://git.aceofba.se/logaritmisk/ustat)'s
+real data (prior μ=0, σ=6) that produces curves which start already
+spread apart and barely move:
+
+```
+player          first point            final point
+Eskil           mu +3.72  sigma 1.17   mu +4.61  sigma 1.21
+Anders Olsson   mu +1.61  sigma 0.90   mu +1.16  sigma 0.82
+LUDVIGSSON      mu -2.09  sigma 1.08   mu -2.61  sigma 1.13
+Anners          mu -2.85  sigma 1.27   mu -2.86  sigma 1.26
+```
+
+σ at the *first* plotted point is 0.90–1.60 against a prior of 6.00. A
+caller cannot reconstruct the filtered view from the public API today
+except by refitting over `events[0..k]` for every k — O(n²) fits for
+something one forward pass already computes.
+
+## Scope
+
+### What ships
+
+1. A read-only forward-only pass on `History`, walking slices in time
+   order and carrying its own forward messages.
+2. Three public methods: `filtered_log_evidence`,
+   `filtered_learning_curves`, `filtered_learning_curve`.
+3. Removal of `Skill.online`, `History.online`, `HistoryBuilder.online`,
+   `HistoryBuilder::online()`, and the `online: bool` parameter threaded
+   through `Item::within_prior`, `Event::within_priors`, and
+   `TimeSlice::log_evidence`.
+4. `#[derive(Clone)]` on `Event`, `Team`, `Item`; `iterate_to_convergence`
+   loses its `#[cfg(test)]` gate.
+5. A CHANGELOG entry recording the API break.
+
+### What does not ship
+
+- No change to `log_evidence()`, `log_evidence_for()`, `learning_curve()`,
+  `learning_curves()`, or `current_skill()`. Their values are unchanged
+  by this work.
+- No fix to the `forward: bool` flag described above.
+- No caching of pass results. Each call runs a full pass; the doc
+  comments say so.
+- No `rayon` parallelism across slices — the pass is sequentially
+  dependent by construction.
+- No prior-predictive accessor. The pass computes the pre-event forward
+  message internally, but only the filtered posterior is exposed until a
+  second caller needs otherwise.
+
+## Design
+
+### Naming
+
+`filtered_*`, not `online_*`. "Filtered" is the standard term for the
+forward-only estimate, and the crate already uses "online" for a second,
+unrelated thing — incremental ingestion, which `benches/baseline.txt:128`
+calls the "online-add" path. Two senses of one word in one crate is how
+the present bug reads as plausible.
+
+### The pass
+
+```rust
+pub(crate) struct FilteredStep {
+    log_evidence: f64,
+    posteriors: Vec<(Index, Gaussian)>,
+}
+
+fn filtered_pass(&self) -> Vec<(T, FilteredStep)>
+```
+
+`posteriors` doubles as the outgoing forward message: the scratch sweep never
+writes `backward`, so it stays `N_INF`, and `Skill::posterior()` and
+`forward_prior_out` are then the same product.
+
+Walk `self.time_slices` in order, carrying
+`messages: HashMap<Index, Gaussian>` — the forward message out of each
+competitor's most recent appearance. For each slice:
+
+1. **Build a scratch clone.** Same `time`, `p_draw`, `convergence`, and
+   cloned `events` with every `item.likelihood` reset to `N_INF`. Fresh
+   `SkillStore` in which, for each agent present in the real slice:
+
+   ```rust
+   forward = match messages.get(&agent) {
+       Some(msg) => msg.forget(rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
+       None      => rating.prior,
+   }
+   backward   = N_INF
+   likelihood = N_INF
+   elapsed    = skill.elapsed          // copied from the real slice
+   ```
+
+   This mirrors `Competitor::receive_for_elapsed` (`src/competitor.rs:39`)
+   exactly, including its `message != N_INF` fallback to the prior.
+   `skill.elapsed` is reused rather than recomputed: it is maintained by
+   `add_events_with_prior` across out-of-order ingestion, and production
+   convergence already trusts it.
+
+2. **Run the real sweep.** `scratch.iterate_to_convergence(agents)`
+   (`src/time_slice.rs:516`), unmodified. Fidelity comes from reusing the
+   production path rather than a parallel reimplementation — in
+   particular, a competitor appearing in two events at the same time is
+   handled by the same within-slice EP that `converge()` uses, not
+   approximated the way the current `online`/`forward` evidence paths are
+   (they run each event independently and sum).
+
+3. **Harvest.** With `backward == N_INF` acting as the multiplicative
+   identity, `Skill::posterior()` is exactly forward × likelihood — the
+   filtered posterior. Slice evidence is
+   `scratch.events.iter().map(|e| e.log_evidence).sum()`; `apply`
+   (`src/time_slice.rs:162`) writes that field on every event during the
+   sweep.
+
+4. **Carry forward.** `messages.insert(a, scratch.forward_prior_out(&a))`
+   for each agent in the slice.
+
+Steps 1–4 are the forward half of `History::iteration`
+(`src/history.rs:283-297`) with the backward half never run. The pass
+touches no field of `self`.
+
+### Public API
+
+```rust
+impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O, K> {
+    pub fn filtered_log_evidence(&self) -> f64;
+    pub fn filtered_learning_curves(&self) -> HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>>;
+    pub fn filtered_learning_curve<Q>(&self, key: &Q) -> Vec<(T, Gaussian)>
+    where
+        K: Borrow<Q>,
+        Q: Hash + Eq + ?Sized;
+}
+```
+
+All take `&self` — the pass mutates nothing. Shapes deliberately mirror
+`learning_curve` / `learning_curves` (`src/history.rs:325`, `:381`) so a
+caller can plot smoothed and filtered curves on one chart with the same
+handling code.
+
+`filtered_learning_curve` runs the same full pass as the plural form and
+collects one key; the cost is identical, only the collection differs.
+Callers wanting several keys should use the plural form. Documented on
+both methods.
+
+Because the pass carries its own messages and re-runs inference, its
+results **do not depend on whether `converge()` has been called**. That
+is the property a stored field cannot have, and it is asserted as a test.
+
+### Removal inventory
+
+| Location | Change |
+|---|---|
+| `src/time_slice.rs:25` | delete `pub(crate) online: Gaussian` |
+| `src/time_slice.rs:41` | delete `online: N_INF` from `Default` |
+| `src/time_slice.rs:62,70-73` | drop `online` param and its branch from `Item::within_prior` |
+| `src/time_slice.rs:110,120` | drop `online` param from `Event::within_priors` |
+| `src/time_slice.rs:585,597,626,634` | drop `online` param from `TimeSlice::log_evidence`; `online \|\| forward` becomes `forward` |
+| `src/history.rs:32,63,138,158,174,199,226` | delete the two `online` field declarations (`:32`, `:199`) and the five struct-literal copies |
+| `src/history.rs:90-93` | delete `HistoryBuilder::online()` |
+| `src/history.rs:402,410` | drop the `self.online` argument |
+| `src/history.rs:1183-1189` | the `..._online` assertion becomes a `forward`-flag assertion; rename the binding to match what it tests |
+
+`Skill` loses 16 bytes, which is a small independent win for #17.
+
+## Testing strategy
+
+Every new test is mutation-proved before it counts: break the production
+line it names, watch it fail for the *right* assertion, restore. A test
+never observed failing is not evidence.
+
+### The red test
+
+On the issue's own fixture — five 1v1 games, same winner each time —
+`filtered_log_evidence()` must land strictly between the two known
+endpoints:
+
+```
+5 × ln(0.5) = -3.4657...   (today's inert value)
+            <  filtered
+            <  -0.4012...  (batch / smoothed evidence)
+```
+
+Two-sided, so neither "still inert" nor "accidentally smoothed" can pass.
+The lower bound is right for a real reason: game one genuinely *is* a
+coin flip under filtering, games two through five are not.
+
+### Invariants
+
+1. **Invariant to `converge()`** — `filtered_log_evidence()` and
+   `filtered_learning_curves()` agree before and after `converge()`. This
+   is exactly what `skill.forward` fails, and what makes a stored field
+   the wrong mechanism.
+
+   Agreement is to tolerance, not bit-identity, and the reason is worth
+   recording. `iteration` calls `recompute_color_groups`
+   (`src/time_slice.rs:369`) only when `from == 0`, so a slice built by
+   repeated appends keeps insertion order until the first `converge()`
+   reorders it. The scratch clone inherits whichever order it finds, and
+   greedy coloring over a permuted input can group differently, giving a
+   different within-slice sweep order — same EP fixed point, different
+   path to it. Follow the house pattern in
+   `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs`: converge tightly (`max_iter: 2_000`,
+   `epsilon: 1e-12`) and compare within `1e-8`.
+2. **Invariant to ingestion order** — events added one at a time produce
+   the same filtered results as the same events batched. Extends the
+   existing invariant in `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs`.
+3. **Single-slice exactness** — for a history with one time slice there
+   is no future to propagate back, so filtered results equal smoothed
+   results exactly.
+4. **Uncertainty ordering** — for a competitor with many later games, σ
+   at the first filtered point is greater than σ at the first smoothed
+   point, and less than the prior σ. This is the ustat complaint restated
+   as an assertion.
+5. **Degenerate inputs** — empty history yields `0.0` and empty maps;
+   unknown key yields an empty curve. Added to
+   `tests/degenerate_inputs.rs`.
+
+### Regression net
+
+The existing suite must be unchanged by the removals: `log_evidence()`,
+`log_evidence_for()`, and every numerical golden keep their current
+values, since the default `online` was already `false` and the flag was
+inert.
+
+## Verification gates
+
+- `just test` — full matrix, including the release job. `debug_assert!`
+  is compiled out in release, and that is where defects in this crate
+  have hidden before.
+- `just lint` — clippy, warnings denied.
+- `just fmt` — nightly.
+- `just determinism` — the new pass must not perturb bit-identical
+  posteriors across `RAYON_NUM_THREADS` 1/2/4/8.
+- `#![forbid(unsafe_code)]` stays.
+
+## Risks
+
+- **Clone cost.** One slice's events are cloned per slice visited. At
+  ustat scale this is negligible, but the pass is O(events) allocation on
+  top of O(events) inference. Accepted: fidelity to the production sweep
+  is worth more than avoiding the clone, and no caller is on a hot path.
+- **`iterate_to_convergence` leaving test-only status.** Its doc comment
+  claims "only used by tests"; that comment must be updated, or it
+  becomes the next piece of load-bearing prose that is quietly false.
+- **Event order is inherited, not normalised.** The scratch clone takes
+  the real slice's current event order, which differs pre- and
+  post-`converge()` for incrementally-ingested slices (see *Invariants*).
+  Results agree to within convergence tolerance rather than exactly.
+  Normalising the order in the scratch builder would buy bit-identity at
+  the cost of diverging from what the real sweep does; not worth it.
+
+  **Measured after implementation, this risk is smaller than stated.**
+  Flipping the scratch's `color_groups_dirty` from `true` to `false`
+  switches it between the grouped sweep (`sweep_color_groups`) and the
+  sequential fallback across its entire convergence loop — a far larger
+  perturbation than a permuted event order — and the ingestion-order
+  invariance test stays green at `1e-8` under `max_iter: 2_000`,
+  `epsilon: 1e-12`. EP reaches the same fixed point regardless of sweep
+  order once driven far enough. The tolerance caveat is correct but
+  conservative. Note the flag itself is load-bearing: with it `false` the
+  scratch would take the sequential path always, diverging from the
+  production sweep it exists to mirror.
+- **Divergence risk.** If `TimeSlice`'s sweep gains state that the
+  scratch construction does not initialise, the pass silently reads a
+  default. The scratch builder must construct `Skill` field-by-field
+  rather than via `..Default::default()`, so adding a field to `Skill`
+  is a compile error here rather than a silent wrong answer.
+
+## Out-of-scope follow-ups
+
+File as separate issues:
+
+1. **`forward: bool` is only a filtering quantity pre-convergence**
+   (`src/history.rs:395`). Either document the constraint or fold the
+   flag into the new pass and delete it.
+2. **`log_evidence` takes `&mut self`** (`src/history.rs:416`) but
+   mutates nothing. The new `filtered_*` methods take `&self`; the
+   asymmetry is worth removing.

release.toml

@@ -1,2 +1,6 @@
-publish = false
+# Publish to the registry named in Cargo.toml's `publish` list (kellnr).
+publish = true
+# Hold off pushing until tags and publish have both succeeded; `just release`
+# pushes last.
+push = false
 pre-release-hook = ["sh", "-c", "git cliff -o CHANGELOG.md --tag {{version}} && git add CHANGELOG.md"]

src/color_group.rs

@@ -103,7 +103,6 @@ impl ColorGroups {
 /// `Index` values that event touches. The returned `ColorGroups` has one
 /// inner `Vec<usize>` per color, containing event indices in the order
 /// they were assigned.
-#[allow(dead_code)]
 pub(crate) fn color_greedy<I, F>(n_events: usize, index_set: F) -> ColorGroups
 where
     F: Fn(usize) -> I,

src/history.rs

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ use crate::{
     sort_time,
     storage::CompetitorStore,
     time::Time,
-    time_slice::{self, EventKind, TimeSlice},
+    time_slice::{self, EventKind, FilteredStep, TimeSlice},
     tuple_gt, tuple_max,
 };
 
@@ -29,7 +29,6 @@ pub struct HistoryBuilder<
     beta: f64,
     drift: D,
     p_draw: f64,
-    online: bool,
     score_sigma: f64,
     convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
     observer: O,
@@ -60,7 +59,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
             sigma: self.sigma,
             beta: self.beta,
             p_draw: self.p_draw,
-            online: self.online,
             score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
             convergence: self.convergence,
             observer: self.observer,
@@ -87,11 +85,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
         self
     }
 
-    pub fn online(mut self, online: bool) -> Self {
-        self.online = online;
-        self
-    }
-
     /// Default observation noise for scored outcomes.
     ///
     /// # Panics
@@ -135,7 +128,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
             beta: self.beta,
             drift: self.drift,
             p_draw: self.p_draw,
-            online: self.online,
             score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
             convergence: self.convergence,
             observer,
@@ -155,7 +147,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> HistoryBuilder<
             beta: self.beta,
             drift: self.drift,
             p_draw: self.p_draw,
-            online: self.online,
             score_sigma: self.score_sigma,
             convergence: self.convergence,
             observer: self.observer,
@@ -171,7 +162,6 @@ impl Default for HistoryBuilder<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str>
             beta: BETA,
             drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
             p_draw: P_DRAW,
-            online: false,
             score_sigma: 1.0,
             convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
             observer: NullObserver,
@@ -196,7 +186,6 @@ pub struct History<
     beta: f64,
     drift: D,
     p_draw: f64,
-    online: bool,
     score_sigma: f64,
     convergence: ConvergenceOptions,
     observer: O,
@@ -223,7 +212,6 @@ impl<K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, K> {
             beta: BETA,
             drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
             p_draw: P_DRAW,
-            online: false,
             score_sigma: 1.0,
             convergence: ConvergenceOptions::default(),
             observer: NullObserver,
@@ -319,9 +307,6 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
     }
 
     /// Learning curves for all competitors, keyed by their user-facing key.
-    ///
-    /// Note: `key(idx)` is O(n) per lookup; this method is therefore O(n²)
-    /// in the number of competitors. Acceptable for T2; T3 may optimize.
     pub fn learning_curves(&self) -> HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> {
         #[cfg(feature = "rayon")]
         {
@@ -392,14 +377,79 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
             .collect()
     }
 
-    pub(crate) fn log_evidence_internal(&mut self, forward: bool, targets: &[Index]) -> f64 {
+    /// Filtered learning curves for all competitors, keyed by user-facing key.
+    ///
+    /// Each point is the posterior using only events up to and including that
+    /// time — "what we knew then". Contrast `learning_curves`, whose points
+    /// are smoothed and so incorporate rounds played later.
+    ///
+    /// Runs a full forward pass per call and caches nothing. This is the
+    /// entry point for multi-key work — see `filtered_learning_curve` for
+    /// why calling that once per key is far more expensive.
+    pub fn filtered_learning_curves(&self) -> HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> {
+        let mut data: HashMap<K, Vec<(T, Gaussian)>> = HashMap::new();
+
+        for (time, step) in self.filtered_pass() {
+            for (agent, posterior) in step.posteriors {
+                if let Some(key) = self.keys.key(agent).cloned() {
+                    data.entry(key).or_default().push((time, posterior));
+                }
+            }
+        }
+
+        data
+    }
+
+    /// Filtered learning curve for a single key: (time, posterior) pairs in
+    /// time order.
+    ///
+    /// Despite mirroring `learning_curve`'s signature, this is not the cheap
+    /// per-key lookup that method is: it runs a full forward pass, O(events),
+    /// discarding every posterior but the requested key's. N keys fetched
+    /// this way costs O(N * events); use `filtered_learning_curves` for
+    /// multi-key work instead — it computes the same pass once.
+    pub fn filtered_learning_curve<Q>(&self, key: &Q) -> Vec<(T, Gaussian)>
+    where
+        K: Borrow<Q>,
+        Q: Hash + Eq + ?Sized,
+    {
+        let Some(idx) = self.keys.get(key) else {
+            return Vec::new();
+        };
+
+        self.filtered_pass()
+            .into_iter()
+            .filter_map(|(time, step)| {
+                step.posteriors
+                    .iter()
+                    .find(|(agent, _)| *agent == idx)
+                    .map(|&(_, posterior)| (time, posterior))
+            })
+            .collect()
+    }
+
+    /// Sum per-slice evidence.
+    ///
+    /// `forward` selects `skill.forward` as each event's prior instead of the
+    /// cavity. That is a genuine forward-only (filtering) quantity ONLY on a
+    /// history that has never been converged: `iteration` alternates backward
+    /// and forward sweeps, so from the second iteration onward the likelihood
+    /// feeding the forward message has already absorbed backward information.
+    /// For a filtering quantity that holds after convergence, use
+    /// `filtered_log_evidence`.
+    pub(crate) fn log_evidence_internal(&self, forward: bool, targets: &[Index]) -> f64 {
+        // Bound before the closure so it captures the store rather than all of
+        // `&self`: capturing `&History` would drag `KeyTable<K>` in and demand
+        // `K: Sync` from every caller, which the key type need not satisfy.
+        let agents = &self.agents;
+
         #[cfg(feature = "rayon")]
         {
             use rayon::prelude::*;
             let per_slice: Vec<f64> = self
                 .time_slices
                 .par_iter()
-                .map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(self.online, targets, forward, &self.agents))
+                .map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(targets, forward, agents))
                 .collect();
             per_slice.into_iter().sum()
         }
@@ -407,19 +457,19 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
         {
             self.time_slices
                 .iter()
-                .map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(self.online, targets, forward, &self.agents))
+                .map(|ts| ts.log_evidence(targets, forward, agents))
                 .sum()
         }
     }
 
     /// Total log-evidence across the history.
-    pub fn log_evidence(&mut self) -> f64 {
+    pub fn log_evidence(&self) -> f64 {
         self.log_evidence_internal(false, &[])
     }
 
     /// Log-evidence restricted to time slices containing at least one of the
     /// given keys. Useful for leave-one-out cross-validation.
-    pub fn log_evidence_for<Q>(&mut self, keys: &[&Q]) -> f64
+    pub fn log_evidence_for<Q>(&self, keys: &[&Q]) -> f64
     where
         K: std::borrow::Borrow<Q>,
         Q: std::hash::Hash + Eq + ?Sized,
@@ -428,6 +478,48 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
         self.log_evidence_internal(false, &targets)
     }
 
+    /// Walk the slices in time order carrying forward messages only.
+    ///
+    /// This is the forward half of `iteration` with the backward half never
+    /// run. It reads `self` and mutates nothing.
+    fn filtered_pass(&self) -> Vec<(T, FilteredStep)> {
+        let mut messages: HashMap<Index, Gaussian> = HashMap::new();
+
+        let mut pass = Vec::with_capacity(self.time_slices.len());
+
+        for slice in &self.time_slices {
+            let step = slice.filtered_step(&messages, &self.agents);
+
+            for &(agent, posterior) in &step.posteriors {
+                messages.insert(agent, posterior);
+            }
+
+            pass.push((slice.time, step));
+        }
+
+        pass
+    }
+
+    /// Total log-evidence under forward-only (filtering) information.
+    ///
+    /// Each event is scored using only what was known before that *time*,
+    /// which is the right quantity for prequential scoring and model
+    /// comparison. Events sharing a timestamp still inform each other
+    /// through the within-slice sweep, so within one slice this is not a
+    /// guarantee that event A is scored independently of simultaneous event
+    /// B. Contrast `log_evidence`, whose per-event priors carry information
+    /// from events that had not happened yet.
+    ///
+    /// Runs a full forward pass per call and caches nothing. The result does
+    /// not depend on whether `converge` has been called.
+    #[must_use]
+    pub fn filtered_log_evidence(&self) -> f64 {
+        self.filtered_pass()
+            .iter()
+            .map(|(_, step)| step.log_evidence)
+            .sum()
+    }
+
     /// Draw-probability quality metric for the given teams (key slices).
     ///
     /// Values range roughly [0, 1]; 1 == perfectly matched. Supports any
@@ -935,12 +1027,7 @@ mod tests {
 
         let w = [vec![1.0], vec![1.0]];
         let p = Game::ranked_with_arena(
-            h.time_slices[1].events[0].within_priors(
-                false,
-                false,
-                &h.time_slices[1].skills,
-                &h.agents,
-            ),
+            h.time_slices[1].events[0].within_priors(false, &h.time_slices[1].skills, &h.agents),
             &[0.0, 1.0],
             &w,
             P_DRAW,
@@ -1180,11 +1267,11 @@ mod tests {
         let f = h.keys.get("f").unwrap();
 
         let trueskill_log_evidence = h.log_evidence_internal(false, &[]);
-        let trueskill_log_evidence_online = h.log_evidence_internal(true, &[]);
+        let trueskill_log_evidence_forward = h.log_evidence_internal(true, &[]);
 
         assert_ulps_eq!(
             trueskill_log_evidence,
-            trueskill_log_evidence_online,
+            trueskill_log_evidence_forward,
             epsilon = 1e-6
         );
 

src/time_slice.rs

@@ -22,7 +22,6 @@ pub(crate) struct Skill {
     backward: Gaussian,
     likelihood: Gaussian,
     pub(crate) elapsed: i64,
-    pub(crate) online: Gaussian,
 }
 
 impl Skill {
@@ -38,7 +37,6 @@ impl Default for Skill {
             backward: N_INF,
             likelihood: N_INF,
             elapsed: 0,
-            online: N_INF,
         }
     }
 }
@@ -50,7 +48,7 @@ pub enum EventKind {
     Scored { score_sigma: f64 },
 }
 
-#[derive(Debug)]
+#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
 struct Item {
     agent: Index,
     likelihood: Gaussian,
@@ -59,7 +57,6 @@ struct Item {
 impl Item {
     fn within_prior<T: Time, D: Drift<T>>(
         &self,
-        online: bool,
         forward: bool,
         skills: &SkillStore,
         agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
@@ -67,9 +64,7 @@ impl Item {
         let r = &agents[self.agent].rating;
         let skill = skills.get(self.agent).unwrap();
 
-        if online {
-            Rating::new(skill.online, r.beta, r.drift)
-        } else if forward {
+        if forward {
             Rating::new(skill.forward, r.beta, r.drift)
         } else {
             Rating::new(skill.posterior() / self.likelihood, r.beta, r.drift)
@@ -77,13 +72,13 @@ impl Item {
     }
 }
 
-#[derive(Debug)]
+#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
 struct Team {
     items: Vec<Item>,
     output: f64,
 }
 
-#[derive(Debug)]
+#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
 pub(crate) struct Event {
     teams: Vec<Team>,
     log_evidence: f64,
@@ -107,7 +102,6 @@ impl Event {
 
     pub(crate) fn within_priors<T: Time, D: Drift<T>>(
         &self,
-        online: bool,
         forward: bool,
         skills: &SkillStore,
         agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
@@ -117,7 +111,7 @@ impl Event {
             .map(|team| {
                 team.items
                     .iter()
-                    .map(|item| item.within_prior(online, forward, skills, agents))
+                    .map(|item| item.within_prior(forward, skills, agents))
                     .collect::<Vec<_>>()
             })
             .collect::<Vec<_>>()
@@ -136,7 +130,7 @@ impl Event {
         convergence: crate::ConvergenceOptions,
         arena: &mut ScratchArena,
     ) -> EventUpdate {
-        let teams = self.within_priors(false, false, skills, agents);
+        let teams = self.within_priors(false, skills, agents);
         let result = self.outputs();
         let g = match self.kind {
             EventKind::Ranked => {
@@ -195,6 +189,17 @@ struct EventUpdate {
     likelihoods: Vec<Vec<Gaussian>>,
 }
 
+/// One slice's worth of forward-only inference.
+///
+/// `posteriors` doubles as the outgoing forward message: the scratch sweep
+/// never writes `backward`, so it stays `N_INF`, and `Skill::posterior()`
+/// and `forward_prior_out` are then the same product.
+#[derive(Debug)]
+pub(crate) struct FilteredStep {
+    pub(crate) log_evidence: f64,
+    pub(crate) posteriors: Vec<(Index, Gaussian)>,
+}
+
 #[derive(Debug)]
 pub struct TimeSlice<T: Time = i64> {
     pub(crate) events: Vec<Event>,
@@ -300,8 +305,9 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
                     *idx,
                     Skill {
                         forward: agents[*idx].receive(&self.time),
+                        backward: N_INF,
+                        likelihood: N_INF,
                         elapsed,
-                        ..Default::default()
                     },
                 );
             }
@@ -372,7 +378,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
         if from > 0 || self.color_groups.is_empty() {
             // Initial pass (add_events) or no color groups yet: simple sequential sweep.
             for event in self.events.iter_mut().skip(from) {
-                let teams = event.within_priors(false, false, &self.skills, agents);
+                let teams = event.within_priors(false, &self.skills, agents);
                 let result = event.outputs();
 
                 let g = match event.kind {
@@ -506,13 +512,13 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
     /// Iterate this slice alone until its posteriors stop moving, returning
     /// the number of iterations taken.
     ///
-    /// Only used by tests: production convergence is driven across slices by
-    /// `History::converge`.
+    /// Used by `filtered_step` to drive a scratch copy of the slice, and by
+    /// tests. Production convergence across slices is driven by
+    /// `History::converge`, which calls `iteration` directly.
     ///
     /// Honours `self.convergence`; it previously hard-coded an epsilon and a
     /// 20-iteration cap that matched neither `ConvergenceOptions` nor the
     /// schedule default.
-    #[cfg(test)]
     pub(crate) fn iterate_to_convergence<D: Drift<T>>(
         &mut self,
         agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
@@ -580,9 +586,72 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
         self.iteration(0, agents);
     }
 
+    /// Run this slice's events on forward (filtering) information alone.
+    ///
+    /// `incoming` holds each competitor's forward message out of their
+    /// previous appearance; a competitor absent from it starts at their
+    /// configured prior. The sweep runs on a scratch copy, so the real slice
+    /// is untouched — which is what makes the filtered estimates independent
+    /// of whether `History::converge` has run.
+    pub(crate) fn filtered_step<D: Drift<T>>(
+        &self,
+        incoming: &HashMap<Index, Gaussian>,
+        agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
+    ) -> FilteredStep {
+        let mut scratch = TimeSlice {
+            events: self.events.clone(),
+            skills: SkillStore::new(),
+            time: self.time,
+            p_draw: self.p_draw,
+            convergence: self.convergence,
+            arena: ScratchArena::new(),
+            color_groups: ColorGroups::new(),
+            color_groups_dirty: true,
+        };
+
+        for event in &mut scratch.events {
+            for team in &mut event.teams {
+                for item in &mut team.items {
+                    item.likelihood = N_INF;
+                }
+            }
+
+            event.log_evidence = 0.0;
+        }
+
+        for (agent, skill) in self.skills.iter() {
+            let rating = &agents[agent].rating;
+
+            let forward = match incoming.get(&agent) {
+                Some(message) => message.forget(rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
+                None => rating.prior,
+            };
+
+            scratch.skills.insert(
+                agent,
+                Skill {
+                    forward,
+                    backward: N_INF,
+                    likelihood: N_INF,
+                    elapsed: skill.elapsed,
+                },
+            );
+        }
+
+        scratch.iterate_to_convergence(agents);
+
+        FilteredStep {
+            log_evidence: scratch.events.iter().map(|event| event.log_evidence).sum(),
+            posteriors: scratch
+                .skills
+                .iter()
+                .map(|(agent, skill)| (agent, skill.posterior()))
+                .collect(),
+        }
+    }
+
     pub(crate) fn log_evidence<D: Drift<T>>(
         &self,
-        online: bool,
         targets: &[Index],
         forward: bool,
         agents: &CompetitorStore<T, D>,
@@ -594,7 +663,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
         let mut arena = ScratchArena::new();
 
         let run_event = |event: &Event, arena: &mut ScratchArena| -> f64 {
-            let teams = event.within_priors(online, forward, &self.skills, agents);
+            let teams = event.within_priors(forward, &self.skills, agents);
             let result = event.outputs();
             match event.kind {
                 EventKind::Ranked => {
@@ -623,7 +692,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
         };
 
         if targets.is_empty() {
-            if online || forward {
+            if forward {
                 self.events
                     .iter()
                     .map(|event| run_event(event, &mut arena))
@@ -631,7 +700,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
             } else {
                 self.events.iter().map(|event| event.log_evidence).sum()
             }
-        } else if online || forward {
+        } else if forward {
             self.events
                 .iter()
                 .filter(|event| {

tests/degenerate_inputs.rs

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
 
 use trueskill_tt::{
     ConstantDrift, ConvergenceOptions, Game, GameOptions, Gaussian, History, InferenceError,
-    Outcome, Rating,
+    NullObserver, Outcome, Rating,
 };
 
 type R = Rating<i64, ConstantDrift>;
@@ -127,6 +127,20 @@ fn empty_history_converges_trivially() {
     assert!(report.converged);
 }
 
+/// Issue #27's exact reproduction: a non-default key type reaching `converge`
+/// with no events at all. The underflow it reported trapped in debug and
+/// indexed out of bounds in release, so this must run in both profiles.
+#[test]
+fn converge_on_an_empty_history_with_owned_keys() {
+    let mut history: History<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, String> =
+        History::builder_with_key().score_sigma(5.0).build();
+
+    let report = history.converge().unwrap();
+
+    assert_eq!(report.iterations, 0);
+    assert!(report.converged);
+}
+
 #[test]
 fn empty_event_stream_then_converge() {
     let mut h = History::default();
@@ -245,3 +259,14 @@ fn log_evidence_finite_for_near_certain_outcome() {
         upset.log_evidence()
     );
 }
+
+#[test]
+fn empty_history_has_no_filtered_estimates() {
+    let history: History = History::builder().build();
+
+    assert_eq!(history.filtered_log_evidence(), 0.0);
+
+    assert!(history.filtered_learning_curves().is_empty());
+
+    assert!(history.filtered_learning_curve("nobody").is_empty());
+}

tests/filtered.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
+//! Forward-only (filtering) estimates: what the model knew at the time,
+//! as opposed to the smoothed posteriors `learning_curve` reports.
+
+use smallvec::smallvec;
+use trueskill_tt::{ConvergenceOptions, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
+
+/// `games` one-on-one matches at successive times, won by "a" every time,
+/// built with the given convergence options.
+fn repeated_winner_with(games: i64, convergence: ConvergenceOptions) -> History {
+    let mut history = History::builder().convergence(convergence).build();
+
+    for time in 1..=games {
+        history
+            .add_events([Event {
+                time,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            }])
+            .unwrap();
+    }
+
+    history
+}
+
+/// `games` one-on-one matches at successive times, won by "a" every time.
+///
+/// This is the fixture from issue #19, where `online(true)` reported
+/// `games * ln(0.5)`.
+fn repeated_winner(games: i64) -> History {
+    repeated_winner_with(games, ConvergenceOptions::default())
+}
+
+/// The default 30-iteration cap leaves a residual around 1e-6, which would
+/// swamp these comparisons. Drive both sides well past the fixed point.
+fn tight() -> ConvergenceOptions {
+    ConvergenceOptions {
+        max_iter: 2_000,
+        epsilon: 1e-12,
+        ..ConvergenceOptions::default()
+    }
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn filtered_evidence_sits_between_coin_flip_and_batch() {
+    let mut history = repeated_winner(5);
+
+    history.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let coin_flip = 5.0 * 0.5f64.ln();
+    let batch = history.log_evidence();
+    let filtered = history.filtered_log_evidence();
+
+    assert!(
+        filtered > coin_flip,
+        "filtered evidence {filtered} is at or below {coin_flip}, the all-coin-flip \
+         value the inert online flag reported; game one is a coin flip but games two \
+         through five are not"
+    );
+
+    assert!(
+        filtered < batch,
+        "filtered evidence {filtered} is not below the smoothed {batch}; filtering \
+         scores each game on strictly less information than smoothing does"
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn filtered_first_point_is_less_certain_than_smoothed() {
+    let mut history = repeated_winner(12);
+
+    history.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a");
+    let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a");
+
+    assert_eq!(
+        smoothed.len(),
+        filtered.len(),
+        "both curves must cover the same time points"
+    );
+
+    let (smoothed_time, first_smoothed) = smoothed[0];
+    let (filtered_time, first_filtered) = filtered[0];
+
+    assert_eq!(smoothed_time, filtered_time);
+
+    assert!(
+        first_filtered.sigma() > first_smoothed.sigma(),
+        "filtered sigma {} at the first point is not above smoothed {}; the smoother \
+         collapses uncertainty before the first round is drawn, which is the whole \
+         reason this method exists",
+        first_filtered.sigma(),
+        first_smoothed.sigma()
+    );
+
+    assert!(
+        first_filtered.sigma() < trueskill_tt::SIGMA,
+        "filtered sigma {} at the first point is not below the prior {}; one game was \
+         played, so some uncertainty must have been resolved",
+        first_filtered.sigma(),
+        trueskill_tt::SIGMA
+    );
+
+    for pair in filtered.windows(2) {
+        assert!(
+            pair[1].1.mu() > pair[0].1.mu(),
+            "filtered mu must climb at every step for a competitor who wins every \
+             game: t={} mu={} then t={} mu={}",
+            pair[0].0,
+            pair[0].1.mu(),
+            pair[1].0,
+            pair[1].1.mu()
+        );
+    }
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn filtered_curves_plural_agrees_with_singular() {
+    let mut history = repeated_winner(4);
+
+    history.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let curves = history.filtered_learning_curves();
+
+    assert_eq!(
+        curves["b"],
+        history.filtered_learning_curve("b"),
+        "the plural form must agree with the singular for the same key"
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn filtered_evidence_is_invariant_to_convergence() {
+    let mut history = repeated_winner_with(6, tight());
+
+    let before = history.filtered_log_evidence();
+
+    let report = history.converge().unwrap();
+    assert!(
+        report.converged,
+        "fixture must converge: {:?}",
+        report.final_step
+    );
+
+    let after = history.filtered_log_evidence();
+
+    assert!(
+        (before - after).abs() < 1e-8,
+        "filtered evidence moved across converge(): {before} -> {after}. The pass must \
+         carry its own forward messages; anything reading skill.forward shows exactly \
+         this drift, because converge() contaminates it with backward information."
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn single_slice_filtered_matches_smoothed() {
+    let mut history = History::builder().convergence(tight()).build();
+
+    history
+        .add_events([
+            Event {
+                time: 1,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("a")]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("b")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            },
+            Event {
+                time: 1,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("c")]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("d")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            },
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+
+    history.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a");
+    let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a");
+
+    assert_eq!(smoothed.len(), 1);
+    assert_eq!(filtered.len(), 1);
+
+    assert!(
+        (smoothed[0].1.mu() - filtered[0].1.mu()).abs() < 1e-8
+            && (smoothed[0].1.sigma() - filtered[0].1.sigma()).abs() < 1e-8,
+        "one slice has no future to propagate back, so filtered and smoothed must \
+         agree: smoothed mu={} sigma={}, filtered mu={} sigma={}",
+        smoothed[0].1.mu(),
+        smoothed[0].1.sigma(),
+        filtered[0].1.mu(),
+        filtered[0].1.sigma()
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn filtered_curves_do_not_depend_on_ingestion_order() {
+    let events = |time: i64, winner: &'static str, loser: &'static str| Event {
+        time,
+        teams: smallvec![
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(winner)]),
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(loser)]),
+        ],
+        outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+    };
+
+    let all = vec![
+        events(1, "a", "b"),
+        events(1, "c", "d"),
+        events(1, "a", "c"),
+        events(1, "b", "d"),
+        events(2, "a", "d"),
+        events(2, "b", "c"),
+        events(2, "a", "b"),
+    ];
+
+    let mut batched = History::builder().convergence(tight()).build();
+    batched.add_events(all.clone()).unwrap();
+    batched.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut incremental = History::builder().convergence(tight()).build();
+    for event in all {
+        incremental.add_events([event]).unwrap();
+    }
+    incremental.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let from_batched = batched.filtered_learning_curve("a");
+    let from_incremental = incremental.filtered_learning_curve("a");
+
+    assert_eq!(from_batched.len(), from_incremental.len());
+
+    for ((time_b, gaussian_b), (time_i, gaussian_i)) in
+        from_batched.iter().zip(from_incremental.iter())
+    {
+        assert_eq!(time_b, time_i);
+
+        assert!(
+            (gaussian_b.mu() - gaussian_i.mu()).abs() < 1e-8
+                && (gaussian_b.sigma() - gaussian_i.sigma()).abs() < 1e-8,
+            "at t={time_b}: batched mu={} sigma={}, incremental mu={} sigma={}",
+            gaussian_b.mu(),
+            gaussian_b.sigma(),
+            gaussian_i.mu(),
+            gaussian_i.sigma()
+        );
+    }
+}