fix!: per-key queries report unknown keys instead of a plausible constant

Two accessors answered a question about a key the history had never seen
with a well-formed value indistinguishable from a real answer.

`log_evidence_for` filter_map'd unknown keys away. An empty target list
means "no restriction" downstream, so a list of *entirely* unknown keys
returned the whole-history evidence: measured on a two-cohort fixture,
`log_evidence_for(["typo"])` returned exactly `log_evidence()`. On the
one workload it is documented for — leave-one-out cross-validation —
that is the un-held-out score, a plausible number that silently
invalidates the comparison it was computed for. It now returns
`Err(UnknownKey)` naming the offending position.

`learning_curve` and `filtered_learning_curve` returned an empty `Vec`
both for a typo'd key and for a competitor who is registered but has not
played yet. They now return `Option`, so `None` is "never heard of it"
and `Some(vec![])` is "known, no appearances".

Tests carry a control case in each direction, so they cannot pass by
everything returning the same thing.

Closes #66, closes #70.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-09 21:13:35 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 56e8220c86
commit e4a68ba1a7
10 changed files with 201 additions and 52 deletions
+6 -1
View File
@@ -67,7 +67,12 @@ proptest! {
let _ = h.converge().unwrap();
for key in KEYS {
for (time, g) in h.learning_curve(key) {
// A generated schedule need not touch every key, and an unplayed
// key is `None` rather than an empty curve.
let Some(curve) = h.learning_curve(key) else {
continue;
};
for (time, g) in curve {
assert_finite(g, &format!("{key} at t={time}"));
}
}