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fix!: per-key queries report unknown keys instead of a plausible constant

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Two accessors answered a question about a key the history had never seen
with a well-formed value indistinguishable from a real answer.

`log_evidence_for` filter_map'd unknown keys away. An empty target list
means "no restriction" downstream, so a list of *entirely* unknown keys
returned the whole-history evidence: measured on a two-cohort fixture,
`log_evidence_for(["typo"])` returned exactly `log_evidence()`. On the
one workload it is documented for — leave-one-out cross-validation —
that is the un-held-out score, a plausible number that silently
invalidates the comparison it was computed for. It now returns
`Err(UnknownKey)` naming the offending position.

`learning_curve` and `filtered_learning_curve` returned an empty `Vec`
both for a typo'd key and for a competitor who is registered but has not
played yet. They now return `Option`, so `None` is "never heard of it"
and `Some(vec![])` is "known, no appearances".

Tests carry a control case in each direction, so they cannot pass by
everything returning the same thing.

Closes #66, closes #70.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
This commit is contained in:
logaritmisk
2026-09-09 21:13:35 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 56e8220c86
commit e4a68ba1a7
10 changed files with 201 additions and 52 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
tests/filtered.rs
+7 -7
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@@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ fn filtered_first_point_is_less_certain_than_smoothed() {
let _ = history.converge().unwrap();
let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a");
let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a");
let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a").unwrap();
let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a").unwrap();
assert_eq!(
smoothed.len(),
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ fn filtered_curves_plural_agrees_with_singular() {
assert_eq!(
curves["b"],
history.filtered_learning_curve("b"),
history.filtered_learning_curve("b").unwrap(),
"the plural form must agree with the singular for the same key"
);
}
@@ -182,8 +182,8 @@ fn single_slice_filtered_matches_smoothed() {
let _ = history.converge().unwrap();
let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a");
let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a");
let smoothed = history.learning_curve("a").unwrap();
let filtered = history.filtered_learning_curve("a").unwrap();
assert_eq!(smoothed.len(), 1);
assert_eq!(filtered.len(), 1);
@@ -231,8 +231,8 @@ fn filtered_curves_do_not_depend_on_ingestion_order() {
}
let _ = incremental.converge().unwrap();
let from_batched = batched.filtered_learning_curve("a");
let from_incremental = incremental.filtered_learning_curve("a");
let from_batched = batched.filtered_learning_curve("a").unwrap();
let from_incremental = incremental.filtered_learning_curve("a").unwrap();
assert_eq!(from_batched.len(), from_incremental.len());