T0 + T1 + T2: engine redesign through new API surface (#1)

Implements tiers T0, T1, T2 of `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-04-23-trueskill-engine-redesign-design.md`. All three tiers have landed together on this branch because they build on one another; this PR rolls them up for a single review pass.

Per-tier plans:
- T0: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-23-t0-numerical-parity.md`
- T1: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t1-factor-graph.md`
- T2: `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-24-t2-new-api-surface.md`

## Summary

### T0 — Numerical parity (internal)

- `Gaussian` switched to natural-parameter storage `(pi, tau)`; mul/div now ~7× faster (218 ps vs 1.57 ns).
- `HashMap<Index, _>` → dense `Vec<_>` keyed by `Index.0` (via `AgentStore<D>`, `SkillStore`).
- `ScratchArena` eliminates per-event allocations in `Game::likelihoods`.
- `InferenceError` seed type added (1 variant).
- 38 → 53 tests passing through T1.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 29.84 → 21.25 µs.

### T1 — Factor graph machinery (internal)

- `Factor` trait + `BuiltinFactor` enum (TeamSum / RankDiff / Trunc) driving within-game inference.
- `VarStore` flat storage for variable marginals.
- `Schedule` trait + `EpsilonOrMax` impl replacing the hand-rolled EP loop.
- `Game::likelihoods` rebuilt on the factor-graph machinery; iteration counts and goldens preserved to within 1e-6.
- 53 tests passing.
- Benchmark: `Batch::iteration` 23.01 µs (slight regression absorbed in T2).

### T2 — New API surface (breaking)

**Renames:**
- `IndexMap → KeyTable`, `Player → Rating`, `Agent → Competitor`, `Batch → TimeSlice`

**New types:**
- `Time` trait with `Untimed` ZST and `i64` impls; `Drift<T>`, `Rating<T, D>`, `Competitor<T, D>`, `TimeSlice<T>`, `History<T, D, O, K>` all generic.
- `Event<T, K>`, `Team<K>`, `Member<K>`, `Outcome` (`Ranked` variant; `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Observer<T>` trait + `NullObserver`.
- `ConvergenceOptions`, `ConvergenceReport`.
- `GameOptions`, `OwnedGame<T, D>`.

**Three-tier ingestion:**
- `history.record_winner(&K, &K, T)` / `record_draw(&K, &K, T)` — 1v1 convenience.
- `history.add_events(iter)` — typed bulk.
- `history.event(T).team([...]).weights([...]).ranking([...]).commit()` — fluent.

**Query API:** `current_skill`, `learning_curve`, `learning_curves` (keyed on `K`), `log_evidence`, `log_evidence_for`, `predict_quality`, `predict_outcome`.

**Game constructors:** `ranked`, `one_v_one`, `free_for_all`, `custom` — all returning `Result<_, InferenceError>`.

**`factors` module:** `Factor`, `Schedule`, `VarStore`, `VarId`, `BuiltinFactor`, `EpsilonOrMax`, `ScheduleReport`, `TeamSumFactor`, `RankDiffFactor`, `TruncFactor` now public.

**Errors:** `InferenceError` gains `MismatchedShape`, `InvalidProbability`, `ConvergenceFailed`; boundary panics converted to `Result`.

**Removed (breaking):** `History::convergence(iters, eps, verbose)`, `HistoryBuilder::gamma(f64)`, `HistoryBuilder::time(bool)`, `History.time: bool`, `learning_curves_by_index`, nested-Vec public `add_events`.

## Behavior change (documented in CHANGELOG)

`Time = Untimed` has `elapsed_to → 0`, so no drift accumulates between slices. The old `time=false` mode implicitly forced `elapsed=1` on reappearance via an `i64::MAX` sentinel — that quirk is not reproducible under a typed time axis. Tests that depended on it now use `History::<i64, _>` with explicit `1..=n` timestamps. One test (`test_env_ttt`) had 3 Gaussian goldens updated to reflect the corrected semantics; documented in commit `33a7d90`.

## Final numbers

| Metric | Before T0 | After T2 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| `Batch::iteration` | 29.84 µs | 21.36 µs | **-28%** |
| `Gaussian::mul` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| `Gaussian::div` | 1.57 ns | 219 ps | **-86%** |
| Tests passing | 38 | 90 | +52 |

All other Gaussian ops unchanged (~219 ps add/sub, ~264 ps pi/tau reads).

## Test plan

- [x] `cargo test --features approx` — 90/90 pass (68 lib + 10 api_shape + 6 game + 4 record_winner + 2 equivalence)
- [x] `cargo clippy --all-targets --features approx -- -D warnings` — clean
- [x] `cargo +nightly fmt --check` — clean
- [x] `cargo bench --bench batch` — 21.36 µs
- [x] `cargo bench --bench gaussian` — unchanged from T1
- [x] `cargo run --example atp --features approx` — rewritten in new API, runs clean
- [x] Historical Game-level goldens preserved in `tests/equivalence.rs`
- [x] Public API matches spec Section 4 (verified by integration tests in `tests/api_shape.rs`)

## Commit history

~45 commits total across T0 + T1 + T2. Each task is self-contained and individually tested; the branch is bisectable. See `git log main..t2-new-api-surface` for the full list.

## Deferred to later tiers

- `Outcome::Scored` + `MarginFactor` — T4
- `Damped` / `Residual` schedules — T4
- `Send + Sync` bounds + Rayon parallelism — T3
- N-team `predict_outcome` — T4
- `Game::custom` full ergonomics — T4

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Reviewed-on: #1
Co-authored-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>
Co-committed-by: Anders Olsson <anders.e.olsson@gmail.com>

src/event_builder.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+use smallvec::SmallVec;
+
+use crate::{
+    InferenceError, Outcome,
+    drift::Drift,
+    event::{Event, Member, Team},
+    history::History,
+    observer::Observer,
+    time::Time,
+};
+
+pub struct EventBuilder<'h, T, D, O, K>
+where
+    T: Time,
+    D: Drift<T>,
+    O: Observer<T>,
+    K: Eq + std::hash::Hash + Clone,
+{
+    history: &'h mut History<T, D, O, K>,
+    event: Event<T, K>,
+    current_team_idx: Option<usize>,
+}
+
+impl<'h, T, D, O, K> EventBuilder<'h, T, D, O, K>
+where
+    T: Time,
+    D: Drift<T>,
+    O: Observer<T>,
+    K: Eq + std::hash::Hash + Clone,
+{
+    pub(crate) fn new(history: &'h mut History<T, D, O, K>, time: T) -> Self {
+        Self {
+            history,
+            event: Event {
+                time,
+                teams: SmallVec::new(),
+                outcome: Outcome::Ranked(SmallVec::new()),
+            },
+            current_team_idx: None,
+        }
+    }
+
+    /// Add a team by its member keys (weight 1.0 each, no prior overrides).
+    pub fn team<I: IntoIterator<Item = K>>(mut self, keys: I) -> Self {
+        let members: SmallVec<[Member<K>; 4]> = keys.into_iter().map(Member::new).collect();
+        self.event.teams.push(Team { members });
+        self.current_team_idx = Some(self.event.teams.len() - 1);
+        self
+    }
+
+    /// Set per-member weights for the most recently added team.
+    ///
+    /// Panics in debug builds if called before `.team(...)` or if the length
+    /// doesn't match the team's member count.
+    pub fn weights<I: IntoIterator<Item = f64>>(mut self, weights: I) -> Self {
+        let idx = self
+            .current_team_idx
+            .expect(".weights(...) called before any .team(...)");
+        let ws: Vec<f64> = weights.into_iter().collect();
+        let team = &mut self.event.teams[idx];
+        debug_assert_eq!(
+            ws.len(),
+            team.members.len(),
+            "weights length must match team size"
+        );
+        for (m, w) in team.members.iter_mut().zip(ws) {
+            m.weight = w;
+        }
+        self
+    }
+
+    /// Set explicit ranks per team (length must equal number of teams).
+    pub fn ranking<I: IntoIterator<Item = u32>>(mut self, ranks: I) -> Self {
+        self.event.outcome = Outcome::ranking(ranks);
+        self
+    }
+
+    /// Mark team `winner_idx` as winner; others tied for last.
+    pub fn winner(mut self, winner_idx: u32) -> Self {
+        self.event.outcome = Outcome::winner(winner_idx, self.event.teams.len() as u32);
+        self
+    }
+
+    /// All teams tied.
+    pub fn draw(mut self) -> Self {
+        self.event.outcome = Outcome::draw(self.event.teams.len() as u32);
+        self
+    }
+
+    /// Commit the event to the history.
+    pub fn commit(self) -> Result<(), InferenceError> {
+        self.history.add_events(std::iter::once(self.event))
+    }
+}