feat!: name the unknown key, expose tail probabilities, flag short fits

Three issues from two downstream consumers, all small, all sharing a
theme: the crate had the information and would not hand it over.

#44 — `UnknownKey { team: 0, member: 0 }` did not say which key. A
consumer upgrading 0.1.2 -> 0.4.1 had every one of 5591 predictions
return this error, fell back to a neutral 0.5, and lost its entire
metadata model for a day. Nothing crashed and nothing logged; it was
found by sweeping an unrelated parameter and noticing the output did not
move. The 0.4.0 change that made unknown keys an error was right — the
error was just too anonymous to act on. It now carries the key's `Debug`
rendering, and its `Display` says what to do about it. The precondition
is documented on every prediction entry point, which the reporter said
would alone have saved the day.

#43 — `cdf` was `pub(crate)`, so a consumer asking "is this competitor
below the cutoff" approximated it with a `mu + z * sigma` band and had no
way to say what confidence any `z` bought. Adds
`Gaussian::probability_below` / `probability_above`. The second is
separate on purpose: `1 - cdf` collapses to exactly zero past ~8.3
sigma, and a stopping rule is evaluated precisely there. Both route
through the survival function added in 0.4.1, so this is visibility
rather than new numerics.

#50 — `ConvergenceReport` was not `#[must_use]`, so the one signal that
a fit stopped short was trivially discarded. It now is, and that
immediately found 78 sites doing exactly that — including this crate's
own ATP example, which was capped at 10 sweeps when the history needs
30. The example now reads the report and says so.

`ITERATIONS = 30` is documented as the floor it is, with the three
measurements to hand: 400 events over 100 competitors already stops
there at ~7e-3 against a 1e-6 tolerance, the ATP example needs 30 at a
much looser one, and a consumer's 2000-node model needs 76 to 161.

BREAKING CHANGE: `InferenceError::UnknownKey` gains a `key` field, and
the prediction methods now require `K: Debug` in order to fill it.

Closes #43, #50. Refs #44 — its third ask, an opt-in `UnknownKeys::Skip`
mode, is a live API question and deliberately not answered here.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

examples/atp.rs

@@ -46,14 +46,33 @@ fn main() {
         .sigma(1.6)
         .drift(ConstantDrift(0.036))
         .convergence(trueskill_tt::ConvergenceOptions {
-            max_iter: 10,
+            // This history needs 30 sweeps to reach the epsilon below. It was
+            // capped at 10 until the `#[must_use]` on `ConvergenceReport`
+            // surfaced that the example had been shipping a short fit.
+            max_iter: 100,
             epsilon: 0.01,
             alpha: 1.0,
         })
         .build();
 
     hist.add_events(events).unwrap();
-    hist.converge().unwrap();
+
+    // Read the report rather than discarding it. A fit that hits `max_iter`
+    // without reaching `epsilon` is not an error and does not look wrong — every
+    // rating comes back finite and sensibly ordered — so this flag is the only
+    // thing that says the numbers were still moving when the sweep stopped.
+    let report = hist.converge().unwrap();
+    eprintln!(
+        "converged={} after {} sweeps, final step {:?}",
+        report.converged, report.iterations, report.final_step
+    );
+    if !report.converged {
+        eprintln!(
+            "warning: stopped after {} sweeps with a final step of {:?}, \
+             short of epsilon — raise ConvergenceOptions::max_iter",
+            report.iterations, report.final_step
+        );
+    }
 
     let players = [
         ("aggasi", "a092", 38800i64),