fix!: validate the constructors below HistoryBuilder

0.8.0 closed the sign-absorption defect at `HistoryBuilder::mu/sigma/beta`
and at both ingestion paths. It was still open one layer down, in the
constructors those paths call. Measured, all bit identical to their
positive counterparts:

  Gaussian::from_ms(25.0, -8.33)  == from_ms(25.0, +8.33)
  Rating::new(_, -4.17, _)        == Rating::new(_, +4.17, _)
  ConstantDrift(-0.0833)          == ConstantDrift(+0.0833)

sigma, beta and gamma enter only as squares, so the sign vanished without
comment. Worst of the set: `Rating::new(_, NaN, _)` reached `Game::ranked`
which returned **Ok** carrying `Gaussian { pi: NaN, tau: NaN }` — no
`converge` on that path to catch it.

`from_ms` and `Rating::new` now reject. `ConstantDrift` cannot: the field
is public and positional, so there is no constructor to intercept, and
sealing it would break every `ConstantDrift(x)` for a case whose resulting
model is perfectly valid. Documented instead. Its non-finite half IS
rejected — `converge` validates the drift variance each competitor
accumulates, which also covers a custom `Drift` impl.

Two things the tests caught that I had wrong:

NaN sigma must PASS `from_ms`. My first version rejected it, and two
existing tests went red immediately: a broken fit legitimately produces a
NaN sigma from `sqrt` of a negative truncated variance, and the design is
to propagate that to `NonFiniteResult`. Rejecting it turned the reporting
path into a panic inside inference. Written as
`sigma >= 0.0 || sigma.is_nan()` so the intent is explicit rather than
hidden in a negated comparison.

Very small sigma is also not rejected, and that is deliberate: `approx`
produces small truncated sigmas legitimately. `pi = 1/sigma^2` leaves
f64's range below ~1.5e-154 and `tau = mu*pi` overflows sooner, at a
threshold that depends on mu — so there is a band where pi is finite and
only tau is not. Both land on the existing point-mass representation.
Documented, including that such a Gaussian is not equal to itself and can
make two identical declarations report as conflicting.

BREAKING CHANGE: `Gaussian::from_ms` panics on a negative sigma, and
`Rating::new` panics unless beta is finite and non-negative. `converge`
returns `InvalidParameter` for a non-finite drift variance.

Closes #61

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-09 17:48:41 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 6139061740
commit ab23476aaf
5 changed files with 179 additions and 0 deletions
+17
View File
@@ -23,7 +23,24 @@ pub struct Rating<T: Time = i64, D: Drift<T> = ConstantDrift> {
}
impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Rating<T, D> {
/// # Panics
///
/// Panics unless `beta` is finite and non-negative, matching
/// `HistoryBuilder::beta`.
///
/// Zero is allowed and meaningful — performance is then exactly skill, and
/// the fit differs measurably from a positive beta rather than degenerating.
/// Negative is rejected because `beta` enters only as `beta^2`: measured, a
/// negative beta returned results **bit identical** to its absolute value,
/// and a NaN beta reached `Game::ranked`, which returned `Ok` carrying a
/// `Gaussian { pi: NaN, tau: NaN }` — there is no `converge` on that path to
/// catch it.
pub fn new(prior: Gaussian, beta: f64, drift: D) -> Self {
assert!(
beta.is_finite() && beta >= 0.0,
"beta must be finite and non-negative (got {beta}); it is only ever \
squared, so a negative value would silently behave as its absolute value"
);
Self {
prior,
beta,