fix!: apply competitor configuration whenever it is supplied

`Member::with_prior` and `with_drift_scale` were consumed only on the
branch that *creates* a competitor — `priors.remove` sat inside
`if !self.agents.contains(..)`. Supplying either for a key the history
already knew did nothing at all: no error, no warning, and output
computed from the default prior. A prior applied on a competitor's very
first event and was silently discarded ever after.

Configuration now applies whenever supplied. Two details this forced:

Configuration is tracked per *field* rather than as a merged `Rating`.
A member setting only `drift_scale` must not also assert the default
prior, or it would silently undo a prior seeded on an earlier event.

Slice state has to be refreshed. `drift_scale` is re-derived on every
forward pass, but a prior is written into the competitor's earliest
slice once, at ingestion, and `iteration` refreshes only slices after
the first. Without the refresh a late prior would reach the drift terms
and nothing else — a subtler version of the drop being fixed. This was
caught by a test, not by reading the code.

Conflicting values for one competitor within a single batch are now
`ConflictingCompetitorConfig` rather than resolved by iteration order.
Events in a batch are unordered, so "last one wins" would make the
result depend on traversal — and `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs` exists
to rule exactly that out. Repeating the same value stays inert, which is
the shape callers get when configuration is a property of the domain.

That invariant turned out to be tested only for *unconfigured*
competitors: every helper in that file built members with `Member::new`.
Extended to cover configured ones, including a check that configuration
changes the fit at all, so the order tests cannot pass vacuously.

`with_prior` had no coverage under `tests/` whatsoever, which is how
this survived. Adds `tests/competitor_config.rs`.

`drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance` asserted the old
behaviour and now asserts the new one. It was written as a deliberate
change-detector — "moving the capture would be a visible break, not a
silent one" — so it inverted rather than being deleted.

Also removes `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and `NegativePrecision`,
which no code path ever constructed: public variants advertising failure
modes no caller could observe. Partial #20 — its other items were
already resolved, except `Outcome::winner` still panicking.

BREAKING CHANGE: `prior` and `drift_scale` now take effect for
competitors the history already knows, where they were previously
ignored; a batch supplying conflicting values for one competitor is now
an error. `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and
`InferenceError::NegativePrecision` are removed.

Closes #10. Refs #20.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

src/error.rs

@@ -25,11 +25,6 @@ pub enum InferenceError {
     /// result has no representable likelihood. Configure a positive `p_draw`
     /// (via `HistoryBuilder::p_draw` or `GameOptions::p_draw`) to admit ties.
     TieWithoutDrawProbability { teams: (usize, usize) },
-    /// Convergence exceeded `max_iter` without falling below `epsilon`.
-    ConvergenceFailed {
-        last_step: (f64, f64),
-        iterations: usize,
-    },
     /// Inference produced a non-finite value (NaN or infinity).
     ///
     /// Indicates numerical breakdown; the resulting skills are meaningless
@@ -38,8 +33,19 @@ pub enum InferenceError {
         context: &'static str,
         step: (f64, f64),
     },
-    /// Negative precision: a Gaussian with `pi < 0` slipped into an API call.
+    /// One batch declared two different values for the same competitor's
-    NegativePrecision { pi: f64 },
+    /// configuration.
+    ///
+    /// `prior` and `drift_scale` configure a competitor, not an event, so a
+    /// batch that sets one of them twice with different values has no
+    /// well-defined meaning: events within a batch are not ordered, so
+    /// "last one wins" would make the result depend on iteration order.
+    /// Declaring the same value repeatedly is fine and is the expected shape
+    /// when a competitor's configuration is a property of the domain.
+    ConflictingCompetitorConfig {
+        competitor: usize,
+        field: &'static str,
+    },
     /// A prediction referenced a key the history has no skill for.
     ///
     /// Reported rather than skipped: dropping unknown keys turns a team of
@@ -96,18 +102,12 @@ impl fmt::Display for InferenceError {
             Self::InvalidParameter { name, value } => {
                 write!(f, "{name} is invalid: {value}")
             }
-            Self::ConvergenceFailed {
+            Self::ConflictingCompetitorConfig { competitor, field } => {
-                last_step,
-                iterations,
-            } => {
                 write!(
                     f,
-                    "convergence failed after {iterations} iterations; last step = {last_step:?}"
+                    "competitor {competitor}: this batch sets {field} to two different values"
                 )
             }
-            Self::NegativePrecision { pi } => {
-                write!(f, "precision must be non-negative; got {pi}")
-            }
             Self::UnknownKey { team, member } => {
                 write!(
                     f,

src/event.rs

@@ -50,9 +50,17 @@ impl<K> Default for Team<K> {
 /// `weight` applies per event and defaults to 1.0.
 ///
 /// `prior` and `drift_scale` are **competitor configuration**, not per-event
-/// values: both are captured when the competitor is first created and ignored
+/// values. Setting either applies to the competitor for the whole history, not
-/// on every later appearance. Setting either on a key the history already knows
+/// just to this event, and applies whenever it is supplied — including on a key
-/// has no effect.
+/// the history already knows. Because configuration lives on the competitor and
+/// `converge` refits from competitor state, configuring one late still refits
+/// the whole history rather than taking effect only from that event onward.
+///
+/// Repeating the same value is inert, which is the expected shape when the
+/// configuration is a property of the domain. Supplying two *different* values
+/// for one competitor within a single batch is
+/// `InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig`: events in a batch have no
+/// order, so there would be no well-defined winner.
 #[derive(Clone, Debug)]
 pub struct Member<K> {
     pub key: K,

src/history.rs

@@ -172,6 +172,23 @@ impl Default for HistoryBuilder<i64, ConstantDrift, NullObserver, &'static str>
     }
 }
 
+/// Configuration a caller attached to a competitor via `Member`.
+///
+/// Carries *what was explicitly set* rather than a merged `Rating`, so a member
+/// that sets only `drift_scale` does not also assert the default prior — which
+/// would spuriously conflict with a prior seeded on an earlier event.
+#[derive(Clone, Copy, Default)]
+pub(crate) struct CompetitorConfig {
+    prior: Option<Gaussian>,
+    drift_scale: Option<f64>,
+}
+
+impl CompetitorConfig {
+    fn is_empty(self) -> bool {
+        self.prior.is_none() && self.drift_scale.is_none()
+    }
+}
+
 pub struct History<
     T: Time = i64,
     D: Drift<T> = ConstantDrift,
@@ -876,7 +893,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
         times: Vec<T>,
         mut weights: Option<Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>>>,
         kinds: Vec<EventKind>,
-        mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>>,
+        priors: HashMap<Index, CompetitorConfig>,
     ) -> Result<(), InferenceError> {
         if results
             .as_ref()
@@ -943,17 +960,60 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
 
             this_agent.push(*agent);
 
-            if !self.agents.contains(*agent) {
+            let config = priors.get(agent).copied().unwrap_or_default();
-                self.agents.insert(
+
-                    *agent,
+            if self.agents.contains(*agent) {
-                    Competitor {
+                // Seeding a competitor the history already knows. This used to
-                        rating: priors.remove(agent).unwrap_or_else(|| {
+                // be dropped on the floor: `remove` was only reached on the
-                            Rating::new(
+                // create path, so a prior applied on a competitor's very first
+                // event and was silently ignored ever after.
+                if config.is_empty() {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                let rating = &mut self.agents.get_mut(*agent).unwrap().rating;
+                if let Some(prior) = config.prior {
+                    rating.prior = prior;
+                }
+                if let Some(scale) = config.drift_scale {
+                    rating.drift_scale = scale;
+                }
+                let seeded = rating.prior;
+
+                if config.prior.is_some() {
+                    // The prior is not re-derived every pass the way drift is.
+                    // A competitor's earliest slice has its forward message set
+                    // to the prior once, at ingestion, and `iteration` refreshes
+                    // only slices after the first — so without this, a late
+                    // prior would reach the drift terms and nothing else, which
+                    // is a subtler version of the silent drop this replaced.
+                    //
+                    // `clean` has just nulled every message, so the earliest
+                    // slice's forward is exactly the prior.
+                    for slice in &mut self.time_slices {
+                        if let Some(skill) = slice.skills.get_mut(*agent) {
+                            skill.forward = seeded;
+                            break;
+                        }
+                    }
+                }
+            } else {
+                let mut rating = Rating::new(
                     Gaussian::from_ms(self.mu, self.sigma),
                     self.beta,
                     self.drift,
-                            )
+                );
-                        }),
+                if let Some(prior) = config.prior {
+                    rating.prior = prior;
+                }
+                if let Some(scale) = config.drift_scale {
+                    rating.drift_scale = scale;
+                }
+
+                self.agents.insert(
+                    *agent,
+                    Competitor {
+                        rating,
                         message: None,
                         last_time: None,
                     },
@@ -1170,7 +1230,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
         let mut times: Vec<T> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
         let mut weights: Vec<Vec<Vec<f64>>> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
         let mut kinds: Vec<EventKind> = Vec::with_capacity(events.len());
-        let mut priors: HashMap<Index, Rating<T, D>> = HashMap::new();
+        let mut priors: HashMap<Index, CompetitorConfig> = HashMap::new();
 
         for ev in events {
             if ev.outcome.team_count() != ev.teams.len() {
@@ -1204,23 +1264,37 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
                         }
                     }
 
-                    // `prior` and `drift_scale` are competitor configuration,
+                    // `prior` and `drift_scale` configure the competitor, not
-                    // captured here and consumed at competitor creation. Both
+                    // the event. Both land in the same entry so a member may
-                    // land in the same entry so a member may set either alone.
+                    // set either alone.
+                    //
+                    // Events within a batch are not ordered, so a batch that
+                    // sets one field twice with different values has no
+                    // well-defined result — "last one wins" would depend on
+                    // iteration order, which `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs`
+                    // exists to rule out. Repeating the *same* value is fine,
+                    // and is the expected shape when the configuration is a
+                    // property of the domain rather than of one event.
                     if member.prior.is_some() || member.drift_scale.is_some() {
-                        let rating = priors.entry(idx).or_insert_with(|| {
+                        let entry = priors.entry(idx).or_default();
-                            Rating::new(
-                                Gaussian::from_ms(self.mu, self.sigma),
-                                self.beta,
-                                self.drift,
-                            )
-                        });
 
                         if let Some(prior) = member.prior {
-                            rating.prior = prior;
+                            if entry.prior.is_some_and(|held| held != prior) {
+                                return Err(InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig {
+                                    competitor: idx.get(),
+                                    field: "prior",
+                                });
+                            }
+                            entry.prior = Some(prior);
                         }
                         if let Some(scale) = member.drift_scale {
-                            rating.drift_scale = scale;
+                            if entry.drift_scale.is_some_and(|held| held != scale) {
+                                return Err(InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig {
+                                    competitor: idx.get(),
+                                    field: "drift_scale",
+                                });
+                            }
+                            entry.drift_scale = Some(scale);
                         }
                     }
                 }

tests/competitor_config.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,222 @@
+//! `Member::with_prior` / `with_drift_scale` — competitor configuration.
+//!
+//! Both were previously consumed only on the branch that *creates* a
+//! competitor, so configuration supplied for a key the history already knew was
+//! dropped with no error. `with_prior` had no coverage in this directory at
+//! all, which is how that survived.
+
+use smallvec::smallvec;
+use trueskill_tt::{
+    ConvergenceOptions, Event, Gaussian, History, InferenceError, Member, Outcome, Team,
+};
+
+const CONVERGENCE: ConvergenceOptions = ConvergenceOptions {
+    max_iter: 2_000,
+    epsilon: 1e-12,
+    alpha: 1.0,
+};
+
+fn history() -> History {
+    History::builder()
+        .mu(25.0)
+        .sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
+        .beta(25.0 / 6.0)
+        .p_draw(0.0)
+        .convergence(CONVERGENCE)
+        .build()
+}
+
+/// One event, optionally configuring `a`.
+fn bout(
+    a: &'static str,
+    b: &'static str,
+    time: i64,
+    prior: Option<Gaussian>,
+    scale: Option<f64>,
+) -> Event<i64, &'static str> {
+    let mut member = Member::new(a);
+    if let Some(p) = prior {
+        member = member.with_prior(p);
+    }
+    if let Some(s) = scale {
+        member = member.with_drift_scale(s);
+    }
+
+    Event {
+        time,
+        teams: smallvec![
+            Team::with_members([member]),
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
+        ],
+        outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+    }
+}
+
+fn skill_of(h: &History, key: &str) -> Gaussian {
+    h.current_skill(&key).expect("key in history")
+}
+
+/// Baseline: the mechanism works at all on a competitor's first appearance.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_applies_to_a_new_competitor() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut with = history();
+    with.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    with.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut without = history();
+    without
+        .add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    without.converge().unwrap();
+
+    assert!(
+        (skill_of(&with, "a").mu() - skill_of(&without, "a").mu()).abs() > 1.0,
+        "a seeded prior should move the fit"
+    );
+}
+
+/// The defect in #10: a prior supplied for a competitor the history already
+/// knows was silently discarded, and the caller got output computed from the
+/// default prior with no indication anything had been dropped.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_applies_to_a_competitor_the_history_already_knows() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut late = history();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    // "a" now exists. Configuring it here used to do nothing whatsoever.
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut never = history();
+    never
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, None, None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    never.converge().unwrap();
+
+    assert!(
+        (skill_of(&late, "a").mu() - skill_of(&never, "a").mu()).abs() > 1.0,
+        "a late prior must not be silently dropped: {} vs {}",
+        skill_of(&late, "a").mu(),
+        skill_of(&never, "a").mu()
+    );
+}
+
+/// Configuration is competitor-scoped, not event-scoped, and `converge` refits
+/// from competitor state — so seeding late reaches the same fit as seeding from
+/// the start. This is the documented scope, asserted rather than assumed.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_is_whole_history_scoped_not_per_event() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut late = history();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut early = history();
+    early
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    early.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (l, e) = (skill_of(&late, "a"), skill_of(&early, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (l.mu() - e.mu()).abs() < 1e-9 && (l.sigma() - e.sigma()).abs() < 1e-9,
+        "late seeding should refit the whole history: {l:?} vs {e:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn repeating_the_same_prior_is_inert() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut once = history();
+    once.add_events(vec![
+        bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+        bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+    ])
+    .unwrap();
+    once.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut every_time = history();
+    every_time
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    every_time.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (o, e) = (skill_of(&once, "a"), skill_of(&every_time, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (o.mu() - e.mu()).abs() < 1e-12 && (o.sigma() - e.sigma()).abs() < 1e-12,
+        "declaring the same prior repeatedly changed the fit: {o:?} vs {e:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+/// Events within a batch have no order, so two different values for one
+/// competitor have no well-defined winner. Rejecting is what keeps the answer
+/// independent of iteration order.
+#[test]
+fn a_batch_declaring_two_different_priors_is_rejected() {
+    let mut h = history();
+    let err = h
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0)), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(Gaussian::from_ms(10.0, 1.0)), None),
+        ])
+        .expect_err("two different priors for one competitor in one batch");
+
+    assert!(
+        matches!(
+            err,
+            InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig { field: "prior", .. }
+        ),
+        "got {err:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+/// A member setting only `drift_scale` must not also assert the default prior,
+/// or it would silently undo a prior seeded earlier. This is why the collected
+/// configuration tracks each field separately rather than a merged `Rating`.
+#[test]
+fn setting_one_field_late_leaves_the_other_alone() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut h = history();
+    h.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    // Only the scale this time — the prior above must survive.
+    h.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, None, Some(0.5))])
+        .unwrap();
+    h.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut both_upfront = history();
+    both_upfront
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), Some(0.5)),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    both_upfront.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (a, b) = (skill_of(&h, "a"), skill_of(&both_upfront, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (a.mu() - b.mu()).abs() < 1e-9 && (a.sigma() - b.sigma()).abs() < 1e-9,
+        "setting drift_scale late clobbered the earlier prior: {a:?} vs {b:?}"
+    );
+}

tests/drift_scale.rs

@@ -341,13 +341,20 @@ fn zero_scale_pins_a_competitor_in_the_filtered_pass() {
     );
 }
 
-/// `drift_scale` is competitor configuration captured at first appearance, the
+/// `drift_scale` is competitor configuration, and configuration supplied for a
-/// same as `prior` — a later `with_drift_scale` on a key the history already
+/// competitor the history already knows is now *applied* rather than dropped.
-/// knows is ignored. This guards that decision rather than driving it: the
+///
-/// behaviour falls out of where the capture happens, and the point of the test
+/// This test previously asserted the opposite. It was written as a deliberate
-/// is that moving the capture would be a visible break, not a silent one.
+/// change-detector — "moving the capture would be a visible break, not a silent
+/// one" — and that is exactly what happened: the capture moved, and the
+/// assertion inverted rather than being deleted.
+///
+/// Because configuration lives on the competitor and `converge` refits from
+/// competitor state, a late pin applies to the *whole* history, not just to
+/// events after it. So a scale set on the second batch must reach the same fit
+/// as one set from the very first event.
 #[test]
-fn drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance() {
+fn drift_scale_applies_when_set_after_first_appearance() {
     let mut late = History::builder()
         .mu(25.0)
         .sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
@@ -368,7 +375,7 @@ fn drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance() {
     }])
     .unwrap();
 
-    // Second batch asks for a pin. Too late: the competitor already exists.
+    // Second batch asks for a pin. No longer too late.
     late.add_events(vec![Event {
         time: 1000,
         teams: smallvec![
@@ -380,23 +387,113 @@ fn drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance() {
     .unwrap();
     late.converge().unwrap();
 
-    let ignored = curve(&late, "anchor");
+    let applied = curve(&late, "anchor");
-    let drifting = curve(&fit(distant_pair(None), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
+    let pinned_from_the_start = curve(&fit(distant_pair(Some(0.0)), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
+    let never_pinned = curve(&fit(distant_pair(None), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
 
-    for ((t_l, g_l), (t_r, g_r)) in ignored.iter().zip(drifting.iter()) {
+    for ((t_l, g_l), (t_r, g_r)) in applied.iter().zip(pinned_from_the_start.iter()) {
         assert_eq!(t_l, t_r);
         assert!(
             (g_l.sigma() - g_r.sigma()).abs() < 1e-9,
-            "a scale set after first appearance must be ignored, leaving the fit \
+            "a late pin should refit the whole history: t={t_l}, {} vs {}",
-             identical to one that never set it: t={t_l}, {} vs {}",
             g_l.sigma(),
             g_r.sigma()
         );
     }
 
-    let pinned = curve(&fit(distant_pair(Some(0.0)), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
+    // And it must actually have done something.
     assert!(
-        (ignored[1].1.sigma() - pinned[1].1.sigma()).abs() > 1e-6,
+        applied
-        "sanity: the pinned fit must actually differ, or the assertion above is vacuous"
+            .iter()
+            .zip(never_pinned.iter())
+            .any(|((_, a), (_, b))| (a.sigma() - b.sigma()).abs() > 1e-9),
+        "the pin had no effect at all — the silent drop is back"
+    );
+}
+
+/// Re-declaring the same configuration must be inert. This is the shape a
+/// caller gets when the configuration is a property of the domain — "layouts
+/// are static" — so every ingestion path repeats it on every event.
+///
+/// Both histories see exactly the same events; only how many times the scale
+/// is declared differs.
+#[test]
+fn repeating_the_same_configuration_changes_nothing() {
+    let events = |declare_every_time: bool| {
+        let anchor = |first: bool| {
+            if first || declare_every_time {
+                Member::new("anchor").with_drift_scale(0.0)
+            } else {
+                Member::new("anchor")
+            }
+        };
+        vec![
+            Event {
+                time: 0,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([anchor(true)]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("player")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            },
+            Event {
+                time: 1000,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([anchor(false)]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("player")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(1, 2),
+            },
+        ]
+    };
+
+    let once = curve(&fit(events(false), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
+    let every_time = curve(&fit(events(true), 25.0 / 300.0), "anchor");
+
+    for ((t_l, a), (t_r, b)) in once.iter().zip(every_time.iter()) {
+        assert_eq!(t_l, t_r);
+        assert!(
+            (a.sigma() - b.sigma()).abs() < 1e-12,
+            "t={t_l}: declaring the same scale repeatedly changed the fit, {} vs {}",
+            a.sigma(),
+            b.sigma()
+        );
+    }
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn a_batch_that_contradicts_itself_is_rejected() {
+    let mut h = History::builder().convergence(CONVERGENCE).build();
+
+    let err = h
+        .add_events(vec![
+            Event {
+                time: 0,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("anchor").with_drift_scale(0.0)]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("player")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            },
+            Event {
+                time: 1,
+                teams: smallvec![
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("anchor").with_drift_scale(1.0)]),
+                    Team::with_members([Member::new("player")]),
+                ],
+                outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+            },
+        ])
+        .expect_err("two different scales for one competitor in one batch");
+
+    assert!(
+        matches!(
+            err,
+            InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig {
+                field: "drift_scale",
+                ..
+            }
+        ),
+        "got {err:?}"
     );
 }

tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs

@@ -30,6 +30,22 @@ fn event(a: &str, b: &str, time: i64) -> Event<i64, String> {
     }
 }
 
+/// Like [`event`], but `a` carries competitor configuration.
+///
+/// `prior` and `drift_scale` configure the competitor rather than the event, so
+/// they are the part of ingestion most exposed to order: they are consumed once,
+/// where the competitor's state is written.
+fn configured_event(a: &str, b: &str, time: i64, scale: f64) -> Event<i64, String> {
+    Event {
+        time,
+        teams: smallvec![
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(a.to_string()).with_drift_scale(scale)]),
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(b.to_string())]),
+        ],
+        outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+    }
+}
+
 fn converged_skills(events: Vec<Event<i64, String>>, batched: bool) -> Vec<(String, Gaussian)> {
     let mut h: History<i64, _, _, String> =
         History::builder_with_key().convergence(tight()).build();
@@ -145,3 +161,65 @@ fn back_dated_event_matches_batched() {
     let incremental = converged_skills(events, false);
     assert_same(&batched, &incremental, "back-dated event");
 }
+
+/// The invariant this file protects was only ever checked for *unconfigured*
+/// competitors — every helper above built members with `Member::new`.
+///
+/// Configuration is the part most exposed to ordering, because it is consumed
+/// once at the point the competitor's state is written rather than replayed per
+/// event. These cover it.
+#[test]
+fn configured_competitors_are_order_independent() {
+    let events = vec![
+        configured_event("a", "b", 0, 0.0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        configured_event("a", "b", 2, 0.0),
+        event("b", "c", 3),
+    ];
+
+    assert_same(
+        &converged_skills(events.clone(), true),
+        &converged_skills(events, false),
+        "configuration repeated on every appearance",
+    );
+}
+
+/// Configuration supplied only on a *later* event is the case that used to be
+/// silently dropped. It must now reach the same fit either way it is ingested.
+#[test]
+fn late_configuration_is_order_independent() {
+    let events = vec![
+        event("a", "b", 0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        event("a", "b", 2),
+    ];
+
+    assert_same(
+        &converged_skills(events.clone(), true),
+        &converged_skills(events, false),
+        "configuration supplied after first appearance",
+    );
+}
+
+/// And it must actually be doing something — an implementation that dropped
+/// configuration entirely would pass both tests above.
+#[test]
+fn configuration_changes_the_fit_however_it_is_ingested() {
+    let configured = vec![
+        event("a", "b", 0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        event("a", "b", 2),
+    ];
+    let plain = vec![event("a", "b", 0), event("a", "c", 1), event("a", "b", 2)];
+
+    for batched in [true, false] {
+        let with = converged_skills(configured.clone(), batched);
+        let without = converged_skills(plain.clone(), batched);
+        assert!(
+            with.iter()
+                .zip(&without)
+                .any(|((_, x), (_, y))| (x.sigma() - y.sigma()).abs() > 1e-9),
+            "batched={batched}: configuration had no effect, so the order tests are vacuous"
+        );
+    }
+}