fix!: apply competitor configuration whenever it is supplied

`Member::with_prior` and `with_drift_scale` were consumed only on the
branch that *creates* a competitor — `priors.remove` sat inside
`if !self.agents.contains(..)`. Supplying either for a key the history
already knew did nothing at all: no error, no warning, and output
computed from the default prior. A prior applied on a competitor's very
first event and was silently discarded ever after.

Configuration now applies whenever supplied. Two details this forced:

Configuration is tracked per *field* rather than as a merged `Rating`.
A member setting only `drift_scale` must not also assert the default
prior, or it would silently undo a prior seeded on an earlier event.

Slice state has to be refreshed. `drift_scale` is re-derived on every
forward pass, but a prior is written into the competitor's earliest
slice once, at ingestion, and `iteration` refreshes only slices after
the first. Without the refresh a late prior would reach the drift terms
and nothing else — a subtler version of the drop being fixed. This was
caught by a test, not by reading the code.

Conflicting values for one competitor within a single batch are now
`ConflictingCompetitorConfig` rather than resolved by iteration order.
Events in a batch are unordered, so "last one wins" would make the
result depend on traversal — and `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs` exists
to rule exactly that out. Repeating the same value stays inert, which is
the shape callers get when configuration is a property of the domain.

That invariant turned out to be tested only for *unconfigured*
competitors: every helper in that file built members with `Member::new`.
Extended to cover configured ones, including a check that configuration
changes the fit at all, so the order tests cannot pass vacuously.

`with_prior` had no coverage under `tests/` whatsoever, which is how
this survived. Adds `tests/competitor_config.rs`.

`drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance` asserted the old
behaviour and now asserts the new one. It was written as a deliberate
change-detector — "moving the capture would be a visible break, not a
silent one" — so it inverted rather than being deleted.

Also removes `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and `NegativePrecision`,
which no code path ever constructed: public variants advertising failure
modes no caller could observe. Partial #20 — its other items were
already resolved, except `Outcome::winner` still panicking.

BREAKING CHANGE: `prior` and `drift_scale` now take effect for
competitors the history already knows, where they were previously
ignored; a batch supplying conflicting values for one competitor is now
an error. `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and
`InferenceError::NegativePrecision` are removed.

Closes #10. Refs #20.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs

@@ -30,6 +30,22 @@ fn event(a: &str, b: &str, time: i64) -> Event<i64, String> {
     }
 }
 
+/// Like [`event`], but `a` carries competitor configuration.
+///
+/// `prior` and `drift_scale` configure the competitor rather than the event, so
+/// they are the part of ingestion most exposed to order: they are consumed once,
+/// where the competitor's state is written.
+fn configured_event(a: &str, b: &str, time: i64, scale: f64) -> Event<i64, String> {
+    Event {
+        time,
+        teams: smallvec![
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(a.to_string()).with_drift_scale(scale)]),
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(b.to_string())]),
+        ],
+        outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+    }
+}
+
 fn converged_skills(events: Vec<Event<i64, String>>, batched: bool) -> Vec<(String, Gaussian)> {
     let mut h: History<i64, _, _, String> =
         History::builder_with_key().convergence(tight()).build();
@@ -145,3 +161,65 @@ fn back_dated_event_matches_batched() {
     let incremental = converged_skills(events, false);
     assert_same(&batched, &incremental, "back-dated event");
 }
+
+/// The invariant this file protects was only ever checked for *unconfigured*
+/// competitors — every helper above built members with `Member::new`.
+///
+/// Configuration is the part most exposed to ordering, because it is consumed
+/// once at the point the competitor's state is written rather than replayed per
+/// event. These cover it.
+#[test]
+fn configured_competitors_are_order_independent() {
+    let events = vec![
+        configured_event("a", "b", 0, 0.0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        configured_event("a", "b", 2, 0.0),
+        event("b", "c", 3),
+    ];
+
+    assert_same(
+        &converged_skills(events.clone(), true),
+        &converged_skills(events, false),
+        "configuration repeated on every appearance",
+    );
+}
+
+/// Configuration supplied only on a *later* event is the case that used to be
+/// silently dropped. It must now reach the same fit either way it is ingested.
+#[test]
+fn late_configuration_is_order_independent() {
+    let events = vec![
+        event("a", "b", 0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        event("a", "b", 2),
+    ];
+
+    assert_same(
+        &converged_skills(events.clone(), true),
+        &converged_skills(events, false),
+        "configuration supplied after first appearance",
+    );
+}
+
+/// And it must actually be doing something — an implementation that dropped
+/// configuration entirely would pass both tests above.
+#[test]
+fn configuration_changes_the_fit_however_it_is_ingested() {
+    let configured = vec![
+        event("a", "b", 0),
+        configured_event("a", "c", 1, 0.0),
+        event("a", "b", 2),
+    ];
+    let plain = vec![event("a", "b", 0), event("a", "c", 1), event("a", "b", 2)];
+
+    for batched in [true, false] {
+        let with = converged_skills(configured.clone(), batched);
+        let without = converged_skills(plain.clone(), batched);
+        assert!(
+            with.iter()
+                .zip(&without)
+                .any(|((_, x), (_, y))| (x.sigma() - y.sigma()).abs() > 1e-9),
+            "batched={batched}: configuration had no effect, so the order tests are vacuous"
+        );
+    }
+}