fix!: apply competitor configuration whenever it is supplied

`Member::with_prior` and `with_drift_scale` were consumed only on the
branch that *creates* a competitor — `priors.remove` sat inside
`if !self.agents.contains(..)`. Supplying either for a key the history
already knew did nothing at all: no error, no warning, and output
computed from the default prior. A prior applied on a competitor's very
first event and was silently discarded ever after.

Configuration now applies whenever supplied. Two details this forced:

Configuration is tracked per *field* rather than as a merged `Rating`.
A member setting only `drift_scale` must not also assert the default
prior, or it would silently undo a prior seeded on an earlier event.

Slice state has to be refreshed. `drift_scale` is re-derived on every
forward pass, but a prior is written into the competitor's earliest
slice once, at ingestion, and `iteration` refreshes only slices after
the first. Without the refresh a late prior would reach the drift terms
and nothing else — a subtler version of the drop being fixed. This was
caught by a test, not by reading the code.

Conflicting values for one competitor within a single batch are now
`ConflictingCompetitorConfig` rather than resolved by iteration order.
Events in a batch are unordered, so "last one wins" would make the
result depend on traversal — and `tests/ingestion_equivalence.rs` exists
to rule exactly that out. Repeating the same value stays inert, which is
the shape callers get when configuration is a property of the domain.

That invariant turned out to be tested only for *unconfigured*
competitors: every helper in that file built members with `Member::new`.
Extended to cover configured ones, including a check that configuration
changes the fit at all, so the order tests cannot pass vacuously.

`with_prior` had no coverage under `tests/` whatsoever, which is how
this survived. Adds `tests/competitor_config.rs`.

`drift_scale_is_ignored_after_first_appearance` asserted the old
behaviour and now asserts the new one. It was written as a deliberate
change-detector — "moving the capture would be a visible break, not a
silent one" — so it inverted rather than being deleted.

Also removes `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and `NegativePrecision`,
which no code path ever constructed: public variants advertising failure
modes no caller could observe. Partial #20 — its other items were
already resolved, except `Outcome::winner` still panicking.

BREAKING CHANGE: `prior` and `drift_scale` now take effect for
competitors the history already knows, where they were previously
ignored; a batch supplying conflicting values for one competitor is now
an error. `InferenceError::ConvergenceFailed` and
`InferenceError::NegativePrecision` are removed.

Closes #10. Refs #20.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011hcFjNDmHXZF8URGLku5zZ

tests/competitor_config.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,222 @@
+//! `Member::with_prior` / `with_drift_scale` — competitor configuration.
+//!
+//! Both were previously consumed only on the branch that *creates* a
+//! competitor, so configuration supplied for a key the history already knew was
+//! dropped with no error. `with_prior` had no coverage in this directory at
+//! all, which is how that survived.
+
+use smallvec::smallvec;
+use trueskill_tt::{
+    ConvergenceOptions, Event, Gaussian, History, InferenceError, Member, Outcome, Team,
+};
+
+const CONVERGENCE: ConvergenceOptions = ConvergenceOptions {
+    max_iter: 2_000,
+    epsilon: 1e-12,
+    alpha: 1.0,
+};
+
+fn history() -> History {
+    History::builder()
+        .mu(25.0)
+        .sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
+        .beta(25.0 / 6.0)
+        .p_draw(0.0)
+        .convergence(CONVERGENCE)
+        .build()
+}
+
+/// One event, optionally configuring `a`.
+fn bout(
+    a: &'static str,
+    b: &'static str,
+    time: i64,
+    prior: Option<Gaussian>,
+    scale: Option<f64>,
+) -> Event<i64, &'static str> {
+    let mut member = Member::new(a);
+    if let Some(p) = prior {
+        member = member.with_prior(p);
+    }
+    if let Some(s) = scale {
+        member = member.with_drift_scale(s);
+    }
+
+    Event {
+        time,
+        teams: smallvec![
+            Team::with_members([member]),
+            Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
+        ],
+        outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
+    }
+}
+
+fn skill_of(h: &History, key: &str) -> Gaussian {
+    h.current_skill(&key).expect("key in history")
+}
+
+/// Baseline: the mechanism works at all on a competitor's first appearance.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_applies_to_a_new_competitor() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut with = history();
+    with.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    with.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut without = history();
+    without
+        .add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    without.converge().unwrap();
+
+    assert!(
+        (skill_of(&with, "a").mu() - skill_of(&without, "a").mu()).abs() > 1.0,
+        "a seeded prior should move the fit"
+    );
+}
+
+/// The defect in #10: a prior supplied for a competitor the history already
+/// knows was silently discarded, and the caller got output computed from the
+/// default prior with no indication anything had been dropped.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_applies_to_a_competitor_the_history_already_knows() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut late = history();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    // "a" now exists. Configuring it here used to do nothing whatsoever.
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut never = history();
+    never
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, None, None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    never.converge().unwrap();
+
+    assert!(
+        (skill_of(&late, "a").mu() - skill_of(&never, "a").mu()).abs() > 1.0,
+        "a late prior must not be silently dropped: {} vs {}",
+        skill_of(&late, "a").mu(),
+        skill_of(&never, "a").mu()
+    );
+}
+
+/// Configuration is competitor-scoped, not event-scoped, and `converge` refits
+/// from competitor state — so seeding late reaches the same fit as seeding from
+/// the start. This is the documented scope, asserted rather than assumed.
+#[test]
+fn a_prior_is_whole_history_scoped_not_per_event() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut late = history();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, None, None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    late.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut early = history();
+    early
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    early.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (l, e) = (skill_of(&late, "a"), skill_of(&early, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (l.mu() - e.mu()).abs() < 1e-9 && (l.sigma() - e.sigma()).abs() < 1e-9,
+        "late seeding should refit the whole history: {l:?} vs {e:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn repeating_the_same_prior_is_inert() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut once = history();
+    once.add_events(vec![
+        bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+        bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+    ])
+    .unwrap();
+    once.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut every_time = history();
+    every_time
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(seeded), None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    every_time.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (o, e) = (skill_of(&once, "a"), skill_of(&every_time, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (o.mu() - e.mu()).abs() < 1e-12 && (o.sigma() - e.sigma()).abs() < 1e-12,
+        "declaring the same prior repeatedly changed the fit: {o:?} vs {e:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+/// Events within a batch have no order, so two different values for one
+/// competitor have no well-defined winner. Rejecting is what keeps the answer
+/// independent of iteration order.
+#[test]
+fn a_batch_declaring_two_different_priors_is_rejected() {
+    let mut h = history();
+    let err = h
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0)), None),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, Some(Gaussian::from_ms(10.0, 1.0)), None),
+        ])
+        .expect_err("two different priors for one competitor in one batch");
+
+    assert!(
+        matches!(
+            err,
+            InferenceError::ConflictingCompetitorConfig { field: "prior", .. }
+        ),
+        "got {err:?}"
+    );
+}
+
+/// A member setting only `drift_scale` must not also assert the default prior,
+/// or it would silently undo a prior seeded earlier. This is why the collected
+/// configuration tracks each field separately rather than a merged `Rating`.
+#[test]
+fn setting_one_field_late_leaves_the_other_alone() {
+    let seeded = Gaussian::from_ms(40.0, 1.0);
+
+    let mut h = history();
+    h.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), None)])
+        .unwrap();
+    // Only the scale this time — the prior above must survive.
+    h.add_events(vec![bout("a", "b", 1, None, Some(0.5))])
+        .unwrap();
+    h.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let mut both_upfront = history();
+    both_upfront
+        .add_events(vec![
+            bout("a", "b", 0, Some(seeded), Some(0.5)),
+            bout("a", "b", 1, None, None),
+        ])
+        .unwrap();
+    both_upfront.converge().unwrap();
+
+    let (a, b) = (skill_of(&h, "a"), skill_of(&both_upfront, "a"));
+    assert!(
+        (a.mu() - b.mu()).abs() < 1e-9 && (a.sigma() - b.sigma()).abs() < 1e-9,
+        "setting drift_scale late clobbered the earlier prior: {a:?} vs {b:?}"
+    );
+}