T4 (MarginFactor): scored outcomes via Gaussian-margin EP evidence
Adds soft Gaussian-observation evidence on the per-pair diff variable,
enabling continuous score margins as a richer alternative to ranks.
Public API:
- `Outcome::Scored([scores])` (non-breaking enum extension under
`#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Game::scored(teams, outcome, options)` constructor parallel to
`Game::ranked`.
- `EventBuilder::scores([...])` fluent helper.
- `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` knob (default 1.0, validated > 0).
- `GameOptions::score_sigma`.
- `EventKind` re-exported from `lib.rs` (annotated `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- New `InferenceError::InvalidParameter { name, value }` variant.
Internals:
- `MarginFactor` (`factor/margin.rs`): Gaussian observation factor that
closes in one EP step; cavity-cached log-evidence mirrors `TruncFactor`.
- `BuiltinFactor::Margin` dispatch arm.
- `DiffFactor` enum in `game.rs` lets `Game::likelihoods` and the new
`likelihoods_scored` share the per-pair link abstraction.
- Per-event `EventKind { Ranked, Scored { score_sigma } }` routed through
`TimeSlice::add_events`, `iteration_direct`, and `log_evidence`.
Tests: 88 lib + 27 integration (4 new in `tests/scored.rs`); existing
goldens byte-identical. Bench: `benches/scored.rs` baseline ~960µs for
60 events × 20-player pool with default convergence.
Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md
Spec item marked Done.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
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benches/scored.rs
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38
benches/scored.rs
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use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
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use smallvec::smallvec;
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use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
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fn bench_scored_history(c: &mut Criterion) {
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c.bench_function("scored_history_60_events_30_iter", |bencher| {
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bencher.iter(|| {
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let mut h: History<i64, ConstantDrift, _, String> = History::builder_with_key()
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.mu(25.0)
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.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
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.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
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.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
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.score_sigma(2.0)
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.build();
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let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(60);
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for i in 0..60 {
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let a = format!("p{}", i % 20);
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let b = format!("p{}", (i + 7) % 20);
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let s_a = (i as f64 * 0.3).sin().abs() * 21.0;
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let s_b = (i as f64 * 0.3).cos().abs() * 21.0;
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events.push(Event {
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time: 1 + (i / 6) as i64,
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teams: smallvec![
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Team::with_members([Member::new(a)]),
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Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
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],
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outcome: Outcome::scores([s_a, s_b]),
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});
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}
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h.add_events(events).unwrap();
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h.converge().unwrap();
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});
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});
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}
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criterion_group!(benches, bench_scored_history);
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criterion_main!(benches);
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