T4 (MarginFactor): scored outcomes via Gaussian-margin EP evidence

Adds soft Gaussian-observation evidence on the per-pair diff variable,
enabling continuous score margins as a richer alternative to ranks.

Public API:
- `Outcome::Scored([scores])` (non-breaking enum extension under
  `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Game::scored(teams, outcome, options)` constructor parallel to
  `Game::ranked`.
- `EventBuilder::scores([...])` fluent helper.
- `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` knob (default 1.0, validated > 0).
- `GameOptions::score_sigma`.
- `EventKind` re-exported from `lib.rs` (annotated `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- New `InferenceError::InvalidParameter { name, value }` variant.

Internals:
- `MarginFactor` (`factor/margin.rs`): Gaussian observation factor that
  closes in one EP step; cavity-cached log-evidence mirrors `TruncFactor`.
- `BuiltinFactor::Margin` dispatch arm.
- `DiffFactor` enum in `game.rs` lets `Game::likelihoods` and the new
  `likelihoods_scored` share the per-pair link abstraction.
- Per-event `EventKind { Ranked, Scored { score_sigma } }` routed through
  `TimeSlice::add_events`, `iteration_direct`, and `log_evidence`.

Tests: 88 lib + 27 integration (4 new in `tests/scored.rs`); existing
goldens byte-identical.  Bench: `benches/scored.rs` baseline ~960µs for
60 events × 20-player pool with default convergence.

Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md
Spec item marked Done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-04-27 08:47:36 +02:00
parent 6bf3e7e294
commit 8b53cacd64
23 changed files with 3005 additions and 83 deletions

38
benches/scored.rs Normal file
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use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
use smallvec::smallvec;
use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
fn bench_scored_history(c: &mut Criterion) {
c.bench_function("scored_history_60_events_30_iter", |bencher| {
bencher.iter(|| {
let mut h: History<i64, ConstantDrift, _, String> = History::builder_with_key()
.mu(25.0)
.sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
.beta(25.0 / 6.0)
.drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
.score_sigma(2.0)
.build();
let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(60);
for i in 0..60 {
let a = format!("p{}", i % 20);
let b = format!("p{}", (i + 7) % 20);
let s_a = (i as f64 * 0.3).sin().abs() * 21.0;
let s_b = (i as f64 * 0.3).cos().abs() * 21.0;
events.push(Event {
time: 1 + (i / 6) as i64,
teams: smallvec![
Team::with_members([Member::new(a)]),
Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
],
outcome: Outcome::scores([s_a, s_b]),
});
}
h.add_events(events).unwrap();
h.converge().unwrap();
});
});
}
criterion_group!(benches, bench_scored_history);
criterion_main!(benches);