T4 (MarginFactor): scored outcomes via Gaussian-margin EP evidence

Adds soft Gaussian-observation evidence on the per-pair diff variable,
enabling continuous score margins as a richer alternative to ranks.

Public API:
- `Outcome::Scored([scores])` (non-breaking enum extension under
  `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Game::scored(teams, outcome, options)` constructor parallel to
  `Game::ranked`.
- `EventBuilder::scores([...])` fluent helper.
- `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` knob (default 1.0, validated > 0).
- `GameOptions::score_sigma`.
- `EventKind` re-exported from `lib.rs` (annotated `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- New `InferenceError::InvalidParameter { name, value }` variant.

Internals:
- `MarginFactor` (`factor/margin.rs`): Gaussian observation factor that
  closes in one EP step; cavity-cached log-evidence mirrors `TruncFactor`.
- `BuiltinFactor::Margin` dispatch arm.
- `DiffFactor` enum in `game.rs` lets `Game::likelihoods` and the new
  `likelihoods_scored` share the per-pair link abstraction.
- Per-event `EventKind { Ranked, Scored { score_sigma } }` routed through
  `TimeSlice::add_events`, `iteration_direct`, and `log_evidence`.

Tests: 88 lib + 27 integration (4 new in `tests/scored.rs`); existing
goldens byte-identical.  Bench: `benches/scored.rs` baseline ~960µs for
60 events × 20-player pool with default convergence.

Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md
Spec item marked Done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

benches/batch.rs

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
 use trueskill_tt::{
-    BETA, Competitor, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice, drift::ConstantDrift,
-    gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
+    BETA, Competitor, EventKind, GAMMA, KeyTable, MU, P_DRAW, Rating, SIGMA, TimeSlice,
+    drift::ConstantDrift, gaussian::Gaussian, storage::CompetitorStore,
 };
 
 fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
@@ -33,8 +33,10 @@ fn criterion_benchmark(criterion: &mut Criterion) {
         weights.push(vec![vec![1.0], vec![1.0]]);
     }
 
+    let kinds = vec![EventKind::Ranked; composition.len()];
+
     let mut time_slice = TimeSlice::new(1, P_DRAW);
-    time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, &agents);
+    time_slice.add_events(composition, results, weights, kinds, &agents);
 
     criterion.bench_function("Batch::iteration", |b| {
         b.iter(|| time_slice.iteration(0, &agents))

benches/scored.rs

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+use criterion::{Criterion, criterion_group, criterion_main};
+use smallvec::smallvec;
+use trueskill_tt::{ConstantDrift, Event, History, Member, Outcome, Team};
+
+fn bench_scored_history(c: &mut Criterion) {
+    c.bench_function("scored_history_60_events_30_iter", |bencher| {
+        bencher.iter(|| {
+            let mut h: History<i64, ConstantDrift, _, String> = History::builder_with_key()
+                .mu(25.0)
+                .sigma(25.0 / 3.0)
+                .beta(25.0 / 6.0)
+                .drift(ConstantDrift(0.03))
+                .score_sigma(2.0)
+                .build();
+
+            let mut events: Vec<Event<i64, String>> = Vec::with_capacity(60);
+            for i in 0..60 {
+                let a = format!("p{}", i % 20);
+                let b = format!("p{}", (i + 7) % 20);
+                let s_a = (i as f64 * 0.3).sin().abs() * 21.0;
+                let s_b = (i as f64 * 0.3).cos().abs() * 21.0;
+                events.push(Event {
+                    time: 1 + (i / 6) as i64,
+                    teams: smallvec![
+                        Team::with_members([Member::new(a)]),
+                        Team::with_members([Member::new(b)]),
+                    ],
+                    outcome: Outcome::scores([s_a, s_b]),
+                });
+            }
+            h.add_events(events).unwrap();
+            h.converge().unwrap();
+        });
+    });
+}
+
+criterion_group!(benches, bench_scored_history);
+criterion_main!(benches);

benches/scored_baseline.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+    Finished `bench` profile [optimized + debuginfo] target(s) in 0.02s
+     Running benches/scored.rs (target/release/deps/scored-988d1798504ff7d2)
+Gnuplot not found, using plotters backend
+Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter
+Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Warming up for 3.0000 s
+Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Collecting 100 samples in estimated 9.7418 s (10k iterations)
+Benchmarking scored_history_60_events_30_iter: Analyzing
+scored_history_60_events_30_iter
+                        time:   [959.36 µs 962.68 µs 966.13 µs]
+Found 11 outliers among 100 measurements (11.00%)
+  1 (1.00%) low mild
+  5 (5.00%) high mild
+  5 (5.00%) high severe
+