T4 (MarginFactor): scored outcomes via Gaussian-margin EP evidence

Adds soft Gaussian-observation evidence on the per-pair diff variable,
enabling continuous score margins as a richer alternative to ranks.

Public API:
- `Outcome::Scored([scores])` (non-breaking enum extension under
  `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- `Game::scored(teams, outcome, options)` constructor parallel to
  `Game::ranked`.
- `EventBuilder::scores([...])` fluent helper.
- `HistoryBuilder::score_sigma(σ)` knob (default 1.0, validated > 0).
- `GameOptions::score_sigma`.
- `EventKind` re-exported from `lib.rs` (annotated `#[non_exhaustive]`).
- New `InferenceError::InvalidParameter { name, value }` variant.

Internals:
- `MarginFactor` (`factor/margin.rs`): Gaussian observation factor that
  closes in one EP step; cavity-cached log-evidence mirrors `TruncFactor`.
- `BuiltinFactor::Margin` dispatch arm.
- `DiffFactor` enum in `game.rs` lets `Game::likelihoods` and the new
  `likelihoods_scored` share the per-pair link abstraction.
- Per-event `EventKind { Ranked, Scored { score_sigma } }` routed through
  `TimeSlice::add_events`, `iteration_direct`, and `log_evidence`.

Tests: 88 lib + 27 integration (4 new in `tests/scored.rs`); existing
goldens byte-identical.  Bench: `benches/scored.rs` baseline ~960µs for
60 events × 20-player pool with default convergence.

Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-04-27-t4-margin-factor.md
Spec item marked Done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-04-27 08:47:36 +02:00
parent 6bf3e7e294
commit 8b53cacd64
23 changed files with 3005 additions and 83 deletions

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@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ History → Batch[] → Game[] → teams/players
- **`Player`** (`player.rs`) — static configuration: prior `Gaussian`, `beta` (performance noise), `gamma` (skill drift per time unit).
- **`Gaussian`** (`gaussian.rs`) — core probability type. Stored as natural parameters (`pi = 1/sigma²`, `tau = mu/sigma²`). Arithmetic ops implement message multiplication/division in the factor graph.
- **`message.rs`** — `TeamMessage` and `DiffMessage`: intermediate factor graph messages used inside `Game`.
- **`MarginFactor`** (`factor/margin.rs`) — Gaussian observation factor on a diff variable; engaged by `Outcome::Scored`.
- **`lib.rs`** — exports the public API (`Game`, `Gaussian`, `History`, `Player`) and standalone functions (`quality()`, `pdf()`, `cdf()`, `erfc()`). Also defines global defaults: `MU=0.0`, `SIGMA=6.0`, `BETA=1.0`, `GAMMA=0.03`, `P_DRAW=0.0`, `EPSILON=1e-6`, `ITERATIONS=30`.
### Key design points