feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale
Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players. Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor. A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still. The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed. Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written before the wiring. Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event override, which the code has never done — corrected here. A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value, and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter. None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal construction downstream. Closes #34 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU
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+4
-4
@@ -72,9 +72,10 @@ impl Item {
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let skill = skills.at(self.slot);
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if forward {
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Rating::new(skill.forward, r.beta, r.drift)
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Rating::new(skill.forward, r.beta, r.drift).with_drift_scale(r.drift_scale)
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} else {
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Rating::new(skill.posterior() / self.likelihood, r.beta, r.drift)
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.with_drift_scale(r.drift_scale)
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}
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}
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}
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@@ -589,8 +590,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
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n.forget(
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agents[*agent]
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.rating
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.drift
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.variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed),
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.drift_variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed),
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)
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}
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@@ -645,7 +645,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
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let rating = &agents[agent].rating;
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let forward = match incoming.get(&agent) {
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Some(message) => message.forget(rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
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Some(message) => message.forget(rating.drift_variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
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None => rating.prior,
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};
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