feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale

Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the
same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving
competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course
difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players.

Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor
accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at
scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor.
A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type
parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still.

The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied
only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed.
Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw
drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was
exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written
before the wiring.

Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first
appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static
is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill
trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event
override, which the code has never done — corrected here.

A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value,
and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter.

None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit
moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal
construction downstream.

Closes #34

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-01 06:29:02 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 1a88678384
commit 617bc07f6f
7 changed files with 541 additions and 11 deletions
+31 -2
View File
@@ -968,8 +968,37 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
let idx = self.keys.get_or_create(&member.key);
team_indices.push(idx);
team_weights.push(member.weight);
if let Some(prior) = member.prior {
priors.insert(idx, Rating::new(prior, self.beta, self.drift));
if let Some(scale) = member.drift_scale {
// Squaring would make a negative scale behave as its
// absolute value, so reject rather than silently
// accept a sign the caller cannot have meant.
if !scale.is_finite() || scale < 0.0 {
return Err(InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
name: "drift_scale",
value: scale,
});
}
}
// `prior` and `drift_scale` are competitor configuration,
// captured here and consumed at competitor creation. Both
// land in the same entry so a member may set either alone.
if member.prior.is_some() || member.drift_scale.is_some() {
let rating = priors.entry(idx).or_insert_with(|| {
Rating::new(
Gaussian::from_ms(self.mu, self.sigma),
self.beta,
self.drift,
)
});
if let Some(prior) = member.prior {
rating.prior = prior;
}
if let Some(scale) = member.drift_scale {
rating.drift_scale = scale;
}
}
}
event_comp.push(team_indices);