feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale

Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the
same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving
competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course
difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players.

Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor
accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at
scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor.
A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type
parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still.

The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied
only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed.
Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw
drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was
exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written
before the wiring.

Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first
appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static
is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill
trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event
override, which the code has never done — corrected here.

A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value,
and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter.

None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit
moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal
construction downstream.

Closes #34

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-01 06:29:02 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Opus 5
parent 1a88678384
commit 617bc07f6f
7 changed files with 541 additions and 11 deletions
+35 -3
View File
@@ -45,13 +45,20 @@ impl<K> Default for Team<K> {
/// One member of a team, identified by user key `K`.
///
/// `weight` defaults to 1.0; a per-event `prior` can override the competitor's
/// current skill estimate for this event only.
/// `weight` applies per event and defaults to 1.0.
///
/// `prior` and `drift_scale` are **competitor configuration**, not per-event
/// values: both are captured when the competitor is first created and ignored
/// on every later appearance. Setting either on a key the history already knows
/// has no effect.
#[derive(Clone, Debug)]
pub struct Member<K> {
pub key: K,
pub weight: f64,
pub prior: Option<Gaussian>,
/// Multiplier on the drift *variance* this competitor accumulates.
/// `None` means 1.0.
pub drift_scale: Option<f64>,
}
impl<K> Member<K> {
@@ -60,6 +67,7 @@ impl<K> Member<K> {
key,
weight: 1.0,
prior: None,
drift_scale: None,
}
}
@@ -68,10 +76,31 @@ impl<K> Member<K> {
self
}
/// Set this competitor's starting skill estimate.
///
/// Captured at the competitor's first appearance; see the type docs.
pub fn with_prior(mut self, prior: Gaussian) -> Self {
self.prior = Some(prior);
self
}
/// Scale how fast this competitor drifts, relative to the history's drift.
///
/// The scale multiplies the drift *variance*, so it is in the same units as
/// `gamma`: `ConstantDrift(g)` at `scale = s` behaves exactly as
/// `ConstantDrift(g * s)` would for this competitor alone.
///
/// `0.0` pins the competitor still — useful for a reference point that
/// shares a scale with moving competitors but should not itself move: a bot
/// at a known strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty.
///
/// Captured at the competitor's first appearance; see the type docs.
/// Must be finite and non-negative, or ingestion fails with
/// [`InferenceError::InvalidParameter`](crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter).
pub fn with_drift_scale(mut self, scale: f64) -> Self {
self.drift_scale = Some(scale);
self
}
}
/// Convenience: a member is a user key with default weight 1.0 and no prior.
@@ -92,15 +121,18 @@ mod tests {
assert_eq!(m.key, "alice");
assert_eq!(m.weight, 1.0);
assert!(m.prior.is_none());
assert!(m.drift_scale.is_none());
}
#[test]
fn member_builder_methods_chain() {
let m = Member::new("alice")
.with_weight(0.5)
.with_prior(Gaussian::from_ms(20.0, 5.0));
.with_prior(Gaussian::from_ms(20.0, 5.0))
.with_drift_scale(0.0);
assert_eq!(m.weight, 0.5);
assert!(m.prior.is_some());
assert_eq!(m.drift_scale, Some(0.0));
}
#[test]