feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale
Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players. Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor. A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still. The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed. Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written before the wiring. Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event override, which the code has never done — corrected here. A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value, and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter. None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal construction downstream. Closes #34 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU
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@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Competitor<T, D> {
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match self.message {
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Some(message) => {
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let elapsed_variance = match &self.last_time {
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Some(last) => self.rating.drift.variance_delta(last, now),
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Some(last) => self.rating.drift_variance_delta(last, now),
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None => 0.0,
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};
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@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Competitor<T, D> {
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/// and should not be recomputed from `last_time` (which may have shifted).
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pub(crate) fn receive_for_elapsed(&self, elapsed: i64) -> Gaussian {
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match self.message {
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Some(message) => message.forget(self.rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(elapsed)),
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Some(message) => message.forget(self.rating.drift_variance_for_elapsed(elapsed)),
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None => self.rating.prior,
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}
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}
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