feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale

Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the
same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving
competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course
difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players.

Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor
accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at
scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor.
A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type
parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still.

The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied
only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed.
Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw
drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was
exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written
before the wiring.

Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first
appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static
is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill
trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event
override, which the code has never done — corrected here.

A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value,
and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter.

None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit
moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal
construction downstream.

Closes #34

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU

src/competitor.rs

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Competitor<T, D> {
         match self.message {
             Some(message) => {
                 let elapsed_variance = match &self.last_time {
-                    Some(last) => self.rating.drift.variance_delta(last, now),
+                    Some(last) => self.rating.drift_variance_delta(last, now),
                     None => 0.0,
                 };
 
@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Competitor<T, D> {
     /// and should not be recomputed from `last_time` (which may have shifted).
     pub(crate) fn receive_for_elapsed(&self, elapsed: i64) -> Gaussian {
         match self.message {
-            Some(message) => message.forget(self.rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(elapsed)),
+            Some(message) => message.forget(self.rating.drift_variance_for_elapsed(elapsed)),
             None => self.rating.prior,
         }
     }

src/event.rs

@@ -45,13 +45,20 @@ impl<K> Default for Team<K> {
 
 /// One member of a team, identified by user key `K`.
 ///
-/// `weight` defaults to 1.0; a per-event `prior` can override the competitor's
-/// current skill estimate for this event only.
+/// `weight` applies per event and defaults to 1.0.
+///
+/// `prior` and `drift_scale` are **competitor configuration**, not per-event
+/// values: both are captured when the competitor is first created and ignored
+/// on every later appearance. Setting either on a key the history already knows
+/// has no effect.
 #[derive(Clone, Debug)]
 pub struct Member<K> {
     pub key: K,
     pub weight: f64,
     pub prior: Option<Gaussian>,
+    /// Multiplier on the drift *variance* this competitor accumulates.
+    /// `None` means 1.0.
+    pub drift_scale: Option<f64>,
 }
 
 impl<K> Member<K> {
@@ -60,6 +67,7 @@ impl<K> Member<K> {
             key,
             weight: 1.0,
             prior: None,
+            drift_scale: None,
         }
     }
 
@@ -68,10 +76,31 @@ impl<K> Member<K> {
         self
     }
 
+    /// Set this competitor's starting skill estimate.
+    ///
+    /// Captured at the competitor's first appearance; see the type docs.
     pub fn with_prior(mut self, prior: Gaussian) -> Self {
         self.prior = Some(prior);
         self
     }
+
+    /// Scale how fast this competitor drifts, relative to the history's drift.
+    ///
+    /// The scale multiplies the drift *variance*, so it is in the same units as
+    /// `gamma`: `ConstantDrift(g)` at `scale = s` behaves exactly as
+    /// `ConstantDrift(g * s)` would for this competitor alone.
+    ///
+    /// `0.0` pins the competitor still — useful for a reference point that
+    /// shares a scale with moving competitors but should not itself move: a bot
+    /// at a known strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty.
+    ///
+    /// Captured at the competitor's first appearance; see the type docs.
+    /// Must be finite and non-negative, or ingestion fails with
+    /// [`InferenceError::InvalidParameter`](crate::InferenceError::InvalidParameter).
+    pub fn with_drift_scale(mut self, scale: f64) -> Self {
+        self.drift_scale = Some(scale);
+        self
+    }
 }
 
 /// Convenience: a member is a user key with default weight 1.0 and no prior.
@@ -92,15 +121,18 @@ mod tests {
         assert_eq!(m.key, "alice");
         assert_eq!(m.weight, 1.0);
         assert!(m.prior.is_none());
+        assert!(m.drift_scale.is_none());
     }
 
     #[test]
     fn member_builder_methods_chain() {
         let m = Member::new("alice")
             .with_weight(0.5)
-            .with_prior(Gaussian::from_ms(20.0, 5.0));
+            .with_prior(Gaussian::from_ms(20.0, 5.0))
+            .with_drift_scale(0.0);
         assert_eq!(m.weight, 0.5);
         assert!(m.prior.is_some());
+        assert_eq!(m.drift_scale, Some(0.0));
     }
 
     #[test]

src/history.rs

@@ -968,8 +968,37 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>, O: Observer<T>, K: Eq + Hash + Clone> History<T, D, O
                     let idx = self.keys.get_or_create(&member.key);
                     team_indices.push(idx);
                     team_weights.push(member.weight);
-                    if let Some(prior) = member.prior {
-                        priors.insert(idx, Rating::new(prior, self.beta, self.drift));
+
+                    if let Some(scale) = member.drift_scale {
+                        // Squaring would make a negative scale behave as its
+                        // absolute value, so reject rather than silently
+                        // accept a sign the caller cannot have meant.
+                        if !scale.is_finite() || scale < 0.0 {
+                            return Err(InferenceError::InvalidParameter {
+                                name: "drift_scale",
+                                value: scale,
+                            });
+                        }
+                    }
+
+                    // `prior` and `drift_scale` are competitor configuration,
+                    // captured here and consumed at competitor creation. Both
+                    // land in the same entry so a member may set either alone.
+                    if member.prior.is_some() || member.drift_scale.is_some() {
+                        let rating = priors.entry(idx).or_insert_with(|| {
+                            Rating::new(
+                                Gaussian::from_ms(self.mu, self.sigma),
+                                self.beta,
+                                self.drift,
+                            )
+                        });
+
+                        if let Some(prior) = member.prior {
+                            rating.prior = prior;
+                        }
+                        if let Some(scale) = member.drift_scale {
+                            rating.drift_scale = scale;
+                        }
                     }
                 }
                 event_comp.push(team_indices);

src/rating.rs

@@ -16,6 +16,9 @@ pub struct Rating<T: Time = i64, D: Drift<T> = ConstantDrift> {
     pub(crate) prior: Gaussian,
     pub(crate) beta: f64,
     pub(crate) drift: D,
+    /// Multiplier on the drift *variance* this competitor accumulates; 1.0 is
+    /// the neutral default. Set per competitor via `Member::with_drift_scale`.
+    pub(crate) drift_scale: f64,
     pub(crate) _time: PhantomData<T>,
 }
 
@@ -25,10 +28,21 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Rating<T, D> {
             prior,
             beta,
             drift,
+            drift_scale: 1.0,
             _time: PhantomData,
         }
     }
 
+    /// Scale how fast this competitor drifts, relative to `drift`.
+    ///
+    /// Multiplies the drift *variance*, so the scale is in the same units as
+    /// `gamma`. `0.0` pins the competitor still.
+    #[must_use]
+    pub fn with_drift_scale(mut self, drift_scale: f64) -> Self {
+        self.drift_scale = drift_scale;
+        self
+    }
+
     /// The configured prior skill estimate.
     #[must_use]
     pub fn prior(&self) -> Gaussian {
@@ -47,6 +61,28 @@ impl<T: Time, D: Drift<T>> Rating<T, D> {
         self.drift
     }
 
+    /// This competitor's multiplier on the drift variance; 1.0 is neutral.
+    #[must_use]
+    pub fn drift_scale(&self) -> f64 {
+        self.drift_scale
+    }
+
+    /// Drift variance accumulated over `from -> to`, scaled for this competitor.
+    ///
+    /// The single place the scale is applied for a `Time`-typed span. Callers
+    /// must go through this rather than `self.drift` directly, so a competitor's
+    /// scale cannot be silently skipped.
+    pub(crate) fn drift_variance_delta(&self, from: &T, to: &T) -> f64 {
+        self.drift.variance_delta(from, to) * self.drift_scale * self.drift_scale
+    }
+
+    /// Drift variance for a cached elapsed count, scaled for this competitor.
+    ///
+    /// The counterpart of `drift_variance_delta` for the cached-elapsed paths.
+    pub(crate) fn drift_variance_for_elapsed(&self, elapsed: i64) -> f64 {
+        self.drift.variance_for_elapsed(elapsed) * self.drift_scale * self.drift_scale
+    }
+
     pub(crate) fn performance(&self) -> Gaussian {
         self.prior.forget(self.beta.powi(2))
     }
@@ -58,6 +94,7 @@ impl Default for Rating<i64, ConstantDrift> {
             prior: Gaussian::default(),
             beta: BETA,
             drift: ConstantDrift(GAMMA),
+            drift_scale: 1.0,
             _time: PhantomData,
         }
     }

src/time_slice.rs

@@ -72,9 +72,10 @@ impl Item {
         let skill = skills.at(self.slot);
 
         if forward {
-            Rating::new(skill.forward, r.beta, r.drift)
+            Rating::new(skill.forward, r.beta, r.drift).with_drift_scale(r.drift_scale)
         } else {
             Rating::new(skill.posterior() / self.likelihood, r.beta, r.drift)
+                .with_drift_scale(r.drift_scale)
         }
     }
 }
@@ -589,8 +590,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
         n.forget(
             agents[*agent]
                 .rating
-                .drift
-                .variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed),
+                .drift_variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed),
         )
     }
 
@@ -645,7 +645,7 @@ impl<T: Time> TimeSlice<T> {
             let rating = &agents[agent].rating;
 
             let forward = match incoming.get(&agent) {
-                Some(message) => message.forget(rating.drift.variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
+                Some(message) => message.forget(rating.drift_variance_for_elapsed(skill.elapsed)),
                 None => rating.prior,
             };