feat: allow drift to vary per competitor via Member::with_drift_scale
Drift was a property of the History, so every competitor drifted at the same rate and a fixed reference point could not share a graph with moving competitors. A bot at a known strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty — all of them drifted along with the players. Member::with_drift_scale(s) multiplies the drift *variance* a competitor accumulates, so s is in the same units as gamma: ConstantDrift(g) at scale s behaves exactly as ConstantDrift(g * s) would for that competitor. A scalar rather than a per-competitor Drift keeps History's single D type parameter untouched and stays Copy. 0.0 pins a competitor still. The scale lives on Rating, beside the drift it scales, and is applied only through Rating::drift_variance_delta / drift_variance_for_elapsed. Making those the sole entry points means a caller cannot reach the raw drift and silently skip a competitor's scale — the filtered pass was exactly that bug during development, caught because its test was written before the wiring. Like with_prior, the scale is competitor configuration captured at first appearance rather than a per-event override; a competitor that is static is static, and a scale that changed between events would make the skill trajectory hard to interpret. Member's docs claimed prior was a per-event override, which the code has never done — corrected here. A negative scale is rejected rather than squared into its absolute value, and a non-finite one rejected outright, both as InvalidParameter. None means 1.0, so no existing call site changes and no existing fit moves. Adding a public field to Member does break struct-literal construction downstream. Closes #34 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014b6wy2q8rnFK8U8GPJVQNU
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@@ -71,6 +71,36 @@ let h = History::builder()
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.build();
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```
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### Per-competitor drift
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A `History` has one drift model, but individual competitors can scale it.
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`Member::with_drift_scale(s)` multiplies the drift *variance* that competitor
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accumulates, so `s` is in the same units as `gamma`: `ConstantDrift(g)` at
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scale `s` behaves exactly as `ConstantDrift(g * s)` would, for that competitor
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alone.
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`0.0` pins a competitor still. That is what makes a **fixed reference point**
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expressible in the same graph as moving competitors — a bot at a known
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strength, a rating floor, a course difficulty:
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```rust
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let events = vec![Event {
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time: 0,
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teams: smallvec![
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Team::with_members([Member::new("player")]),
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// A course does not improve. Pin it, and the round's evidence
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// lands on the player instead of being split between the two.
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Team::with_members([Member::new("layout_7").with_drift_scale(0.0)]),
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],
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outcome: Outcome::winner(0, 2),
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}];
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```
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Like `with_prior`, the scale is **competitor configuration captured at first
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appearance** — setting it on a key the history already knows has no effect. It
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must be finite and non-negative; ingestion otherwise fails with
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`InferenceError::InvalidParameter`.
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## Scored outcomes
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Use `Outcome::scores([...])` when you have continuous per-team scores rather
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